4xpipcounter

WEekly S&R's--012912

2012-01-27T22:55:00.001-05:00

R3 R2 R1 S1 S2 S3
EUR/USD 1.3587 1.3420 1.3319 1.3119 1.3018 1.2851
USD/JPY 78.31 77.57 77.13 76.23 75.79 75.05
GBP/USD 1.5952 1.5849 1.5787 1.5663 1.5601 1.5498
USD/CHF 0.9384 0.9264 0.9191 0.9047 0.8974 0.8854
AUD/USD 1.0920 1.0799 1.0727 1.0581 1.0509 1.0388
USD/CAD 1.0197 1.0114 1.0065 0.9965 0.9916 0.9833
NZD/USD 0.8453 0.8356 0.8298 0.8182 0.8124 0.8027
EUR/GBP 0.8537 0.8476 0.8440 0.8366 0.8330 0.8269
EUR/JPY 104.59 103.13 102.25 100.49 99.61 98.15
GBP/JPY 123.16 122.00 121.29 119.89 119.18 118.02
EUR/AUD 1.2613 1.2518 1.2461 1.2347 1.2290 1.2195
AUD/CHF 0.9875 0.9802 0.9758 0.9670 0.9626 0.9553

Please note some of the pairs do change occasionally. This is because I drop the ones that are too slow or too boring, and I will add an additional here and there on a pair of specific interest.

Weekly Review--012212

2012-01-27T17:46:00.001-05:00

EUR/USD: The top of the cloud on the 4-hour should contain this week, and we should see the pair continue its move north to the WR2 at 1.3135. The correction should be exhausted by the time the pair gets to the bottom of the daily cloud at 1.3248.

The top of the cloud did contain, at least at the beginning of the week. The dip was 1.2875. We did come close to the top of the daily cloud as the peak was 1.3233 for the week.

GBP/USD: This pair will start the week with a ST correction of the correction it is already in, and there is potential for it to go deeper than its cousin, the EUR/USD. The 4-hour cloud top is 1.5428. If it does not contain, then additional support will be seen at the WS2 at 1.5378. The daily bottom of the cloud at 1.5669 should contain the upside this week. It’s favorable to see an eventual break into the cloud and for the top to contain at 1.5786. The 1.5669 level fits in nicely with the WR1 at 1.5656.

As it turned out the dip was only 1.5515. The latter levels were broken, as we came closer to the former as the peak was 1.5739

USD/CHF: The market dipped to a very key level last week at .9305. That was a key decision point. As far I’m concerned, that decision has been made. After the correction to the WR1 .9415 has been completed, then the MT correction will continue south. The next leg south should be much stronger than the 1st, as we see the drop continue to the radar at the WS2 at .9193, and a strong likelihood of the WS3 at .9071.

The radar was hit as the pair came close to the WS3 as the dip was .9113.

AUD/USD: A correction will start the week. The MR2 is 1.0493, so it would be nice if it could get hit before the correction begins. Nevertheless, it should be limited to the top of the 4-hour cloud at 1.0369, and then give vent to another rise that could top off at only 1.0555, which is the WR1. If the WR1 does not contain, then the rise could be furious.

I showed earlier just how furious the rise looked after the WR1 was thoroughly broker as the peak was 1.0687.

USD/CAD: There is no doubt the WR2 at 1.0223 contains all action heading north. It’s more likely to see the WS2 at 1.0025 hit.

The WR2 did more than contain, as the peak was only 1.0161, and the dip hit .9980.

NZD/USD: The MT .8106 level has almost been hit, and it will be hit this week, as the WR1 is .8105. On the downside, any convincing break of .7986 will mark the beginning of the downtrend. The WS2 is .7965, so the reversal could happen this week.

The move north just kept on moving north as the peak was .8248, 13 pips on the other side of the WR3.

EUR/GBP: If the price gets comfortable around the WS1 at .8267, we would get a correction from that point. After that it could be full speed to the .8167 MT target. The WS3 is .8176, so if the market starts south this week and heads to the WS1, the MT target could be hit this week.

Price never did get comfortable around the WS1 as the dip was .8300. The pair took off to the peak at .8406

EUR/JPY: The drop that ended last week should be continuing into this week. The WS1 at 98.67 needs to contain if the MT correction is going to continue. If that is the case, then the move north should continue to the WR2 at 101.46.

This pair opened the week at the dip at 99.05, and then just kept motoring to the peak at 102.20.

GBP/JPY: The strong upmove that ended last week should continue this week. Containment this week to the south should be seen at the top of the hourly cloud WS1--combo at 119.21. The move north should continue to the WR2 at 121.40. If it makes it to the WR3 at 122.62, that will mark strong containment.

The dip was 119.48 and the peak was 122.03

EUR/AUD: The current price needs to contain. If this pair drops much lower, then it is going to be on to new all-time lows. If the pair falls through the current area, then is on to the WS2 at 1.2203, and eventually to 1.2095. If it holds up, then the WR2 at 1.2463 will be hit.

The pair did continue lower as the dip was 1.2270, 2 pips above the WS1. The peak was 1.2477.

Gold

2012-01-23T22:37:00.002-05:00

The WR2 is 1687 and the MR2 is 1694. It's going to be that area that should contain. We also need a close under 1669 for the week, and that will set the stage for a reversal that will continue into next week for a drop to 1609, possibly lower.

Nifty

2012-01-23T10:20:00.002-05:00

The market is very OB on the 4-hour and daily, which had lent itself to much speculation as to when the market will reverse.
The YR1 is 5089. If you notice on my weekly and monthly levels, they are accurate, but there is a lot of times where the move will continue on the other side of them awhile before the reaction happens that we're looking for. In retrospect, that is one thing to keep in mind as the market approaches the YR1. The next level to look for as possible containment for the week is the WR1 at 5118. This all forewarns that any day we are going to witness a sharp bear candle.For this week, as long as the WR1 contains, we should get a move to the WS2 at 4924.

There is now a very strong cluster event at circa 4766. That should contain for the next bullish move back to the YR1, and even possibly as high as 5276. This whole movement that is going to ensue can now be looked at as a broad consolidation, and also keeps the YS1 at 4158 no the radar, but puts serious doubt on the YS2 at 3693 being hit.

Weekly Forecast--012212

2012-01-22T16:47:00.000-05:00

EUR/USD: The top of the cloud on the 4-hour should contain this week, and we should see the pair continue its move north to the WR2 at 1.3135. The correction should be exhausted by the time the pair gets to the bottom of the daily cloud at 1.3248.

GBP/USD: This pair will start the week with a ST correction of the correction it is already in, and there is potential for it to go deeper than its cousin, the EUR/USD. The 4-hour cloud top is 1.5428. If it does not contain, then additional support will be seen at the WS2 at 1.5378. The daily bottom of the cloud at 1.5669 should contain the upside this week. It’s favorable to see an eventual break into the cloud and for the top to contain at 1.5786. The 1.5669 level fits in nicely with the WR1 at 1.5656.

USD/CHF: The market dipped to a very key level last week at .9305. That was a key decision point. As far I’m concerned, that decision has been made. After the correction to the WR1 .9415 has been completed, then the MT correction will continue south. The next leg south should be much stronger than the 1st, as we see the drop continue to the radar at the WS2 at .9193, and a strong likelihood of the WS3 at .9071

AUD/USD: A correction will start the week. The MR2 is 1.0493, so it would be nice if it could get hit before the correction begins. Nevertheless, it should be limited to the top of the 4-hour cloud at 1.0369, and then give vent to another rise that could top off at only 1.0555, which is the WR1. If the WR1 does not contain, then the rise could be furious.

USD/CAD: There is no doubt the WR2 at 1.0223 contains all action heading north. It’s more likely to see the WS2 at 1.0025 hit.

NZD/USD: The MT .8106 level has almost been hit, and it will be hit this week, as the WR1 is .8105. On the downside, any convincing break of .7986 will mark the beginning of the downtrend. The WS2 is .7965, so the reversal could happen this week.

EUR/GBP: If the price gets comfortable around the WS1 at .8267, we would get a correction from that point. After that it could be full speed to the .8167 MT target. The WS3 is .8176, so if the market starts south this week and heads to the WS1, the MT target could be hit this week.

EUR/JPY: The drop that ended last week should be continuing into this week. The WS1 at 98.67 needs to contain if the MT correction is going to continue. If that is the case, then the move north should continue to the WR2 at 101.46.

GBP/JPY: The strong upmove that ended last week should continue this week. Containment this week to the south should be seen at the top of the hourly cloud WS1--combo at 119.21. The move north should continue to the WR2 at 121.40. If it makes it to the WR3 at 122.62, that will mark strong containment.

EUR/AUD: The current price needs to contain. If this pair drops much lower, then it is going to be on to new all-time lows. If the pair falls through the current area, then is on to the WS2at 1.2203, and eventually to 1.2095. If it holds up, then the WR2 at 1.2463 will be hit.

Weekly S&R's--012212

2012-01-20T22:33:00.003-05:00

R3 R2 R1 S1 S2 S3
EUR/USD 1.3302 1.3135 1.3034 1.2832 1.2731 1.2564
GBP/USD 1.5879 1.5740 1.5656 1.5488 1.5404 1.5265
USD/CHF 0.9611 0.9489 0.9415 0.9267 0.9193 0.9071
AUD/USD 1.0745 1.0626 1.0555 1.0411 1.0340 1.0221
USD/CAD 1.0306 1.0223 1.0174 1.0074 1.0025 0.9942
NZD/USD 0.8426 0.8369 0.8335 0.8267 0.8233 0.8176
EUR/GBP 0.8426 0.8369 0.8335 0.8267 0.8233 0.8176
EUR/JPY 103.00 101.46 100.53 98.67 97.74 96.20
GBP/JPY 122.62 121.40 120.67 119.21 118.48 117.26
EUR/AUD 1.2571 1.2463 1.2398 1.2268 1.2203 1.2095

2012-01-20T22:27:00.000-05:00

EUR/USD: With the strong reversal last week, this pair will keep us in suspense as to just when the MT reversal will be. It is expected to see the pair continue to the WS2 at 1.2534 this week. There is a possibility it could continue to the mid—1.2400’s, but if the WS2 contains, then we should see the pair peak at the WR1 at 1.2743.

We got the answer. The MT reversal began this week. The WR1 was hit with ease, as the dip at 1.2625 did not hit the WS1. The peak was 1.2985.

GBP/USD: This pair is very close to make an even strong move south. All of a sudden, 1.5567 is not only MT containment, but it is almost unattainable for a long time. This week any shot of moving higher will be limited to the WR1 at 1.5389 or possibly the WR2 at 1.5463. Watch for 1.5031 over coming weeks. If that is taken out convincingly, then the low at 1.3503 established in Jan. ’09 is on the radar.

I missed this one. To make a long story short, there was an element of the possible reversal that I missed. The 1.5567 level was hit this week, as it closed at 1.5572.

USD/CHF: I mentioned last week that we should be seeing a move (Words to that effect.) to the low-.9900’s. Last week’ strong ending further confirmed that. The WS1 is .9467, and that may not be hit this week, as the pair should be marching on to the WR2 at .9463 and could be higher.

Nothing has changed concerning the MT outlook, but the market did pull back this week. It peaked at .9574, 4 pips on the other side of the WR1, and then reversed sharply to the dip at .9305.

EUR/CHF: The WR1-hourly kijun combo at 1.2095 might be containment this week as we should see the move south continue to the WS2 at 1.2014.

Like the USD/JPY, this pair is putting me to sleep. Range for the week was 1.2128—1.2065—all of 63 pips. Last week is my last week featuring this pair until it sparks some life.

AUD/USD: As of this writing, the WS1 at 1.0253 was hit. Provided it contains, then we will have one last leg north, as from that point the R zone from 1.0445—1.0495 will be hit this week. If it is pierced convincingly then we head to the WS2 at 1.0189, and the broad range consolidation continues.

The week finished in the R zone, as the peak was 1.0488 and the close was 1.0483. The dip was 1.0232.

USD/CAD: The favored MT scenario is for the UP to continue and eventually take out the recent top at 1.0657. As of this writing, the WR1 at 1.0281 was already hit, and we had a strong reversal back to the WP. It appears the consolidative process is going to continue. The WS2-daily TL combo at 1.0134 needs to hold or the MT outlook changes drastically.

The peak was 1.0282, and then the reversal took off to the dip at 1.0070. Stay tuned!

NZD/USD: As of this writing, the WS1 at .7885 was hit, and we had a sharp reversal. As long as the WS1 holds, then we should be in the middle of the final leg north. The WR2 at .8045 will be hit, and if broken, it will clear the way to .8106. I’m now looking for that crica area to contain before the big move south.

The dip was the WS1 exactly, and the reversal took the pair to the peak at .8080, rgith in between the .8045--.8106 level.

EUR/GBP: Last week’s strong bearish finish did not disappoint, as this pair is headed to .8167, as that circa area will be the negotiating point for the drive that will head north the rest of the year. A strong drop this week to the WS2 at .8186, and even a little lower could help bring an end to the trip south.

I missed this one, but it did end the week with a sharp reversal going south after hitting the peak at .8377. The dip was .8253.

EUR/JPY: Last week’ strong reversal has now put the WS2 at 96.63 for this week virtually on the radar. The drop should go lower towards the MS2 at 96.12, and even the WS3 at 95.90.

The WS1 at 97.08 contained as the dip was 1 pips under it, then it took off to the peak at 100.01.

GBP/JPY: The strong bearish finish last week has forced this pair to turn the corner, as it was key in determining a future directive for it. The WS2 at 116.84 is on the radar and a further drop to the WS3-MS3 at 116.01, 115.97 could also be seen. MT, the YS1 at 113.01 is now on the radar. After a bounce from that area, we’ll see the drop continue to the YS2 at 106.53. Overall, it is going south for the entire year.

The dip was 117.36, one pip above the WS1, and then it was a strong reversal to the peak at 119.94

EUR/AUD: It’s hard to believe this pair is dipping deeper yet. The WS1 at 1.2231 will be hit this week, and the WS2 at 1.2147 could also be bit. The pair does forewarn to keep the stops close as it is due for the huge reversal. The longer it waits, the bigger it will be.

The WS1 was hit as the dip was 1.2226, and then the reversal candle was formed on the weekly as the peak was 1.2462.

Weekly Forecast--011512

2012-01-14T21:27:00.003-05:00

USD/CHF: I mentioned last week that we should be seeing a move (Words to that effect.) to the low-.9900’s. Last weeks strong ending further confirmed that. That WS1 is .9467, and that may not be hit this week, as the pair should be marching on to the WR2 at .9463 and could be higher.

EUR/CHF: The WR1-hourly kijun combo at 1.2095 might be containment this week as we should see the move south continue to the WS2 at 1.2014.

EUR/JPY: Last week’ strong reversal has now put the WS2 at 96.03 for this week virtually on the radar. The drop should go lower towards the MS2 at 96.12, and even the WS3 at 95.90.

Weekly Review--010812

2012-01-14T19:43:00.000-05:00

EUR/USD: It appears there will be more of the same for this pair this week, except it could be tempering its attitude a little. The following week, it should start showing signs of exhaustion, and then the huge reversal will be imminent. For this week, a correction could be seen to the hourly bottom of the cloud at 1.2820. The WR1 is 1.2822, so that will make for a nice containment area. It would still pay to watch for a reaction once arrived at that point. We have a chance of the WR2 at 1.2925.

The rally stopped exactly half way between the WR1 and WR2 at 1.2877

USD/JPY: This pair is boring me to death. It’s almost like when I know I have to forecast it, I cringe. The low down is simple. I will say this. When it does break out, it could catch us all napping. When there is a double-digit range for the week, it’s not good.
Okay, enough dirty laundry. We head to the WS2 at 76.55, and then the WR2 at 77.35. Some excitement could begin for this pair if the WS2 is taken out convincingly.

Things are getting worse for this pair as it was the worse performing week in the history of it—76.76—77.03 for a 27-pip spread for the week.

GBP/USD: Similar to its cousin, the EUR/USD, we are getting close to a MT correction. By the looks of things, this pair’s move south could be over this week, especially if the WS2 at 1.5264 is hit. That is the favored scenario with the bottom of the 4-hour cloud WR1 combo at 1.5506 capping off the move north this week.

A strong spike, one hour from the close of the week took the pair to 1.5232, and the move north was capped off 6 pips short at .15500.

USD/CHF: With the break of the weekly cloud, it means this pair is heading higher. It still forewarns that in 3-4 weeks a big drop is due. What is now a bearish cloud will drop even lower which will tip the pair’s altimeter. At the beginning of the week, expect a correction back to the WS1 at .9473, and then it will shove it in gear for the WR2 at .9703. I’m expecting another circa 200-point move north from there before we see the MT reversal.

The dip was a little further than I thought as it missed the WS2 (.9399) by 7 pips and only peaked at .9594.

EUR/CHF: This pair is behaving similarly to the USD/JPY. Watch for the WR2 and the WS2 at 1.2181 and 1.2113 respectively. It will probably head south to start the week.

The peak was only 1.2159, 6 pips short of the WR!, and then it reversed and finally broke into the 1.2000’s, as the dip was 1.2079

AUD/USD: This pair is making things even more interesting for the Aussie crosses. While most of the USD pairs, the USD looks strong, against the AUD the USD still looks weak. There is going to be very solid MT containment at 1.0484, and it still appears that level is going to be hit, before the reversal. For this week the daily kijun appears to be solid containment at 1.0123, which is also the WS2 . From there the move north should land at the WR1 at 1.0282, and maybe the WR2 at 1.0333.

The daily kijun was solid containment as price was cared off 19 pips short of it at 1.0142. The pair promptly reversed and even broke the WR2 and headed to the peak at 1.0377. As it turned out the Aussie was the strongest performing single currency of the week.

USD/CAD: This pair has been in a large consolidation pattern since the recent MT peak was established at 1.0657 in the week of Oct. 7. This should confirm that at least this week the pair is headed higher. We should start this week with a ST consolidative pattern that will lead the pair to the MR1 at 1.0309 first, and then we’ll see a reversal to the WS1 at 1.0224, and then the final reversal takes the pair to circa WR2 at 1.0400.

The pair took off north just 9 pips beyond the MR1 as the peak was 1.0318, then the reversal headed lower than expected to the dip at 1.0138. When the next reversal ensued, because of the dip being deeper, the final move fell short of the WR2 as it reached 1.0282.

NZD/USD: This pair is now at a point that it leaves in forecaster at a point of using interpretive skills of price action rather than strict forecasting. Having said that, and provided I have a good read on what is actually going on, /the dip that ended last week should continue to the circa MP at .7772 and WS1 at .7757 area. After that move has been completed the move should take the pair higher, even though it is preparing for a stronger MT drop. This week’s peak could be the WR2 at .7895.
BTW, the S&R’s have been getting tighter for 6 consecutive weeks. This should all be leading up to a tightened channel that will lead to the explosive break south.

The week had to be contained at the WR3 (.7971) at .7979. The continued move south that started the week did halt one pips short of the MP as the dip was .7773.

EUR/GBP: The drop continues as per my MT forecast. I’ve been saying for quite awhile we are headed to the bottom of the daily cloud at .8167, and since the new year started I added the YS1 at .8111 as an additional target. Needless to say, it is still on the radar. The depth of the channels and the implications with the clouds on all TF’s are such to not even think of heading north with this pair. It is the hourly bottom of the cloud at .8266 that should contain this week’s price action, and allowing for a spike to the WR1 at .8279. OTT, it is straight south. We are getting close to the reversal. This week the pair has its eye on the WS2 at .8170, and possibly the WS3 at .8110. Notice the similarities with the MT outlook.

This week the pair took a break from the trip south and hit the peak at .8373, but reversal was sharp with a high-low spread on Friday of 100 pips (That’s huge for this pair. Just look at the size of the daily candle by comparison to the rest.

EUR/JPY: The WS1 at 97.21 should be used as a decision point this week. If that is broken convincingly, then we could be on an all out sprint to the YS1 at 93.03. For now, we’ll say the WS1 contains, and if that is the case, then it makes the WR1 at 98.53 an easy target, and then we could get to the WR2 at 99.20 with some strong effort.

The high and low was accomplished on Friday as the candle engulfed the whole week—98.80—97.18.

GBP/JPY: This week’s WS2 at 117.81 is going to provide very strong S. If it is broken, it will come with all the bells and whistles. It’s doubtful it is going to happen as it should contain. If the DOWN continues at the beginning of the week, then it should be a huge flag once we dip under 118.00.

A look at the hourly chart will show the candle 2 hours from the close of the week. That huge wick is your bells and whistles as it broke the WS2 and headed to 117.27.

EUR/AUD: Watch for the WS1 at 1.2354 and MS2 at 1.2357 area to provide very strong S. That could be the area we get a reprieve from the sharp downtrend and see the MT reversal begin. MT, we could be on our way back to 1.3158, which is the YR1.

The pair peaked at 1.2503 then kept falling to the dip at 1.2297

Note: I’ll keep this pair on the Weekly Forecast until the MT reversal is official. At least that is the plan for now.
__________________

Miscellaney

2012-01-14T19:40:00.000-05:00

Someone asked for my dailies for Nifty on Dec. 26th, so here they are:

4796.42 4761.76 4740.88 4699.12 4678.24 4643.58

Someone asked me to get data from Sharegyan. That site does not help me in giving my analysis, as I am not able to give plot my full methodology on their charts.

I do not trade any of the Indian markets, and up to this point in my life have never trades anything outside of forex.

WR3 and R3

2012-01-14T19:33:00.000-05:00

Someone asked in the Comments section, "wxpip, I never thought Nifty would be in your radar. What you r refering is Nifty Future.(nseindia.com) Nse nifty(National stock exchange)& Nifty spot are same & is the underlying. I persume WR3 & r3 r same.If so why call WR"

I might make a general comment about and R3, or whatever. It is usually a psecific TF I'm referring to thus WR, MR, YR, DR, etc.

Nifty weeklies--011512

2012-01-13T17:58:00.001-05:00

Nifty 5105.24 5004.90 4944.45 4823.55 4763.10 4662.76

Misc Indian market S&R's--010812

2012-01-08T22:33:00.002-05:00

Rel Ind 759.71 739.35 727.09 702.57 690.31 669.95
SBI 1783.53 1733.17 1702.84 1642.16 1611.83 1561.47
Tata Steel 405.51 386.30 374.73 351.59 340.02 320.81
Tata Motors 234.03 220.18 211.83 195.13 186.78 172.93

DAX

2012-01-08T17:37:00.001-05:00

6348.30 6208.01 6123.51 5954.49 5869.99 5729.70

It is doubtful the WS2 at 5869 will be hit this week. It is also doubtful the daily kijun at 5894 will be hit. The correction of the UP, however, should continue at the start of the week. The market has its eye on the WR2 at 6208, and he advance could go beyond that to the previous point it leveled on the weekly kijun at 6244.

Misc weekly S&R's--010812

2012-01-08T17:28:00.000-05:00

Gold 1682.00 1652.07 1634.03 1597.97 1579.93 1550.00
Silver 30.65 29.76 29.23 28.15 27.62 26.7313
Crude Oil 106.01 104.11 102.96 100.66 99.51 97.6088
DJIA 12562.28 12471.44 12416.72 12307.28 12252.56 12161.72

Ist 6 of the Weekly Forecast--010812

2012-01-06T22:29:00.000-05:00

Weekly S&R's--010812

2012-01-06T20:50:00.000-05:00

R3 R2 R1 S1 S2 S3
EUR/USD 1.3098 1.2925 1.2822 1.2614 1.2511 1.2338
USD/JPY 77.67 77.35 77.15 76.75 76.55 76.23
GBP/USD 1.5720 1.5586 1.5506 1.5344 1.5264 1.5130
USD/CHF 0.9830 0.9703 0.9627 0.9473 0.9397 0.9270
EUR/CHF 1.2209 1.2181 1.2164 1.2130 1.2113 1.2085
AUD/USD 1.0421 1.0333 1.0281 1.0175 1.0123 1.0035
USD/CAD 1.0497 1.0400 1.0342 1.0224 1.0166 1.0069
NZD/USD 0.7971 0.7895 0.7849 0.7757 0.7711 0.7635
EUR/GBP 0.8376 0.8316 0.8279 0.8207 0.8170 0.8110
EUR/JPY 100.30 99.20 98.53 97.21 96.54 95.44
GBP/JPY 120.36 119.61 119.16 118.26 117.81 117.06
EUR/AUD 1.2713 1.2585 1.2508 1.2354 1.2277 1.2149

Weekly Review--010112

2012-01-06T19:55:00.001-05:00

EUR/USD: This pair is having a rough time trying to find its way through the 4-hour cluster R event. For the time being, it is very predictable where the turning points south are going to be. MT, the daily kijun, currently at 1.3201, looks rock solid. For this week, WR1 at 1.3013 could contain the upside, but the WR2 at 1.3075 looks rock solid. The DOWN still looks like a freefall towards 1.2643, and rapidly decreasing.

The WR2 proved to be just that—“rock solid”, as the peak was exactly 1.3075. I knew the pair was going to be in a freefall, but I did not think it was going to fall this quick as the dip for the week was 1.2696.

USD/JPY: For the MT, this picture is finally clearing up. Quite a long time ago, I was talking about this pair heading to the low 70.00’s. That is still the case, and with the strong than usual move we have been seeing of late, this pair seems to indicate it finally got its bearings together. Just to wet your appetite, this year’s YS2 at 71.34 could be hit. Therefore if we get a return to 79.65, which also the YR1, your antennas should go up.
This week we should see a recovery of the strong drop that ended last week, as we see the pair move towards the WR2 at 77.56. It is possible to see a move a little higher.

The pair got turned around and moved towards the WR2, but as it turned out, the WR1 at 77.22 contained, as the peak was 77.32.

GBP/USD: This pair is now facing very strong R at the bottom of the 4-hour cloud at .5590. If the pair makes it through the cloud, then the top at 1.5658 figures to contain. In either event, it figures to be a sharp reversal back to the DOWN that could see the WS2 at 1.5348 being paid a visit this week.

The top of the cloud did contain, as the pair had a wick spike to 1.5669, and then the reversal came a little short of the WS2 at the dip was 1.5375.

USD/CHF: I figure this pair is still stuck in some tight consolidation. The top of the weekly cloud at .9473 was missed by 5 pips, and I’m not content in know the DOWN is ready to resume until it has been hit. What will be hit this week is the WS1 at .9346. What could be hit and is well within range is the WS2 at .9304. Other than that, it might pay to be looking north. If the WR2 at .9470 is hit, then all that is needed is a 3-pip move on the other side to hit the top of the weekly cloud.

The dip was exactly the WS2 at .9304, and then the reversal took the pair to beyond the WR2, as the pair hit the WR3 at .9539 and kept traveling to .9577.

EUR/CHF: The bottom of the 4-hour cloud is 1.2211. Combine that with the WR1 at 1.2217, and that should make for a nice confluence of containment for the week. The reversal should take the pair to the WS2 at 1.2103 or lower.
MT, the thing to remember about this pair is that it began a reversal but failed to hit the bottom of the weekly cloud. There has been no momentous thrust behind the move. This pair could still be looking at eventually needing a move to 1.2637 before we see any meaningful reversal.

The dip was 1.2135, 3 pips above the WS1. The pair stayed in a tight squeeze all week as the peak was 1.2197

AUD/USD: This pair still has .9537 on its radar and even much lower. If this pair finishes the week on top of 1.0233, then put 1.0498 on your MT radar before we get the reversal we are looking for. This week solid containment will be seen at 1.0143, which is the top of the 4-hout cloud, and the WS1 is 1.0146, so it is also a solid cluster. The continued move north should take the pair to 1.0333 without much of a problem.

The pair did continue north, and did hit 1.0333 without much of a problem, then continue to 1.0385. The pair had to come crashing down to finish the week at 1.0228, 5 pips under, so 1.0498 is not on the radar.

USD/CAD: Containment should be seen this week at the cluster R area of 1.0229. We could see a strong spike through that area to the WR1 at 1.0246. 1.0059 is on the radar, but may not be hit this week as the WS3 is 1.0064, and it is doubtful the pair will move that strong.

The doubts were justify, as the pair dipped to 1.0075, a whole 11 pips short of the WS3. It was a strong reversal, as the WR2 at 1.0285 was needed to contain, as it was the exact peak of the week.

NZD/USD: This pair is preparing for a big drop, but for now, is still enjoying the northern skies. We should see the 4-hour cloud broken into this week, and see the pair move to the other side to the bottom at a projected .7702. The WS1 is .7713, so that area figures to hold. The reversal will take the pair back up through the cloud and we will see it break out and rise to the WR2 at .7890.

The WR2 did contain as the peak was a wick spike through it at .7907. The dip was only a spike into the cloud at .7740.

EUR/GBP: For this week, there will be containment to the upside in the WR1-WR2 area from .8355to .8381. The WS1 at .8305 is virtually on the radar, and a drop to the WS2 at .8279 is even foreseeable.

The projected are for the peak was good enough as it was .8371, The dip at .8238 was 2 pips short of the WS3

EUR/JPY: Even though this pair is headed to the low 90.00’s, it is due for a huge MT reversal before it gets there. It may need to move into the high 97.00’s before we see the correction take place, and it does not look likely that will happen this week, as the WS1 at 98.86 figures to contain the downside, and the pair should approach the WR2 at 100.99 on the upside.

The WR1 at 100.28 contained the upside, as there was a move just 2 pips on the other side. The reversal took the pair to the dip at 97.87, so the high-97.00's were hit.

GBP/JPY: Any attempt to move higher will be contained by the WR1 at 120.32. We could see the WS2 at 117.84 be hit this week. That is the beginning of the S zone towards 117.64 which could yield a sizeable move north.

The containment area sufficed as the peak was 120.18. We did not quite make it to the S zone as the dip was contained exactly at the MS1 at 118.53.

Forecasts for 2012

2012-01-03T10:33:00.002-05:00

EUR/USD: The downtrend should continue as the YS2 at 1.1815 is on the radar. Any corrective move should be contained by the 38.2% level of YR1>YR2 at 1.3767. That level also matches nicely with the current bottom of the weekly cloud at 1.3763.

USD/JPY: The favorable scenario is to see the upside contained by the YR1 at 79.65, even tough it is possible to see a move as high as circa 81.15. The YS2 at 71.34 should be hit. Considering the latter matches nicely with the 50% mark of the decade’s S1>S2, there promises to be some fireworks in that circa area.

GBP/USD: The YS1 is 1.5121. After there is a correction from that level, watch for 1.5080. It promises to be an explosive move to the YS2 at 1.4712, once it is broken. Upside containment should be the YR1 at 1.5941 if not a little beyond that.

USD/CHF: If the YS1 at .8402 is so much as touched this year, then the YS2 at .7417 is on the radar. Watch for the mid--.9900’s. If broken convincingly, then it is the express to the YR1 at 1.0372. The next stop after that could possibly be 1.0731. It promises to be a volatile year for the Swissy.

EUR/CHF: The YR1 at 1.3207 should contain all upside action this year. The monthly kijun at 1.2606 promises to be a strong obstacle. The weekly kijun at 1.1270 is still a reasonable target to the downside. The YS1 at 1.1113 could only be a temporary holding point if the pair makes it that low. The YS2 at 1.0066 would be visited if the YS1 gives out.

AUD/USD: There is still a possibility of a drop to circa .8311. If we got that drop this year, then it would effective wipe out all the year’s S&R downside objectives. The YR1 at 1.0711 needs to contain any thoughts of this pair moving higher.
It should also be noted that LT, circa .8311 contains, as this would be viewed as a LT correction to a LT uptrend. This pair should be hitting the decade’s R1 at 1.1538.

USD/CAD: I mentioned in this week’s Weekly Forecast that 1.0059 is on the radar. That could end up being the key mark for the whole year. If it contains, then the dip we saw to .9891 from the recent peak at 1.0656 will be it, as we see the rise to the bottom of the monthly cloud at 1.1059. The YS1 is .9836 and the YR2 is 1.0948, so if 1.0059 contains, then the bottom of the monthly cloud is well within range.

NZD/USD: This pair is moving higher to start the year. The combination of the monthly tenken and weekly kijun at .8106 is a strong confluence of R. With the YR1 at .8287, that zone should be the extent of the move north for the year. As long as that is the case, then we’ll say the move to the monthly cloud top at .6850. The YS2 is .6742.

EUR/GBP: I gave away part of this forecast for 2012 in the Weekly Forecast. Expect containment on the downside for the year to be the YS1 at .8111. The reversal will take the pair to at least the YR2 at .8768. There should be a move beyond that mark. The decade’s S2 is .8145, so that is going to be a very explosive area. The dip to that area looks like it could be it for the whole decade, as most likely the LT rise will take ascent to the decade’s R2 at .9585.

EUR/JPY: This is going to b a little different, but I have to report what I see. I’ve been saying this pair is going to drop to the low 90.00’s, and that has been a target for a long time. This is the year it is going to happen. The only problem is the YS1 is 93.03, which is not deep enough, and the YS2 is 86.48, which conjecture tells me it is too deep. If I take 50% of the distance of those 2 points, then I get 89.76, so that is the level I am going with.

GBP/JPY: Watch for 117.68. The mark will be broken this year, and when it does, it will bring a quick drop to the YS1 a 113.01, and then we’ll see the drop continue to the YS2 at 106.53.

Easy money (figure of speech)

2011-12-31T23:26:00.000-05:00

This week's WF was one of the easiest I have ever done. There are none that has the "if that happens, then that will, but..." type statements. This is because the markets are strongly obviated, which will make for some optimum trading decisions.
This post was 33 minutes before 2012 EST.

The party will still continue, as I will be posting my condensed views for the year, and I have the 12 Indian market to post for the yearlies.

Weekly Forecast--010112

2011-12-31T23:24:00.002-05:00

EUR/USD: This pair is having a rough time trying to find its way through the 4-hour cluster R event. For the time being, it is very predictable where the turning points south are going to be. MT, the daily kijun, currently at 1.3201, looks rock solid. For this week, WR1 at 1.3013 could contain the upside, but the WR2 at 1.3075 looks rock solid. The DOWN still looks like a freefall towards 1.2643, and rapidly decreasing.

USD/JPY: For the MT, this picture is finally clearing up. Quite a long time ago, I was talking about this pair heading to the low 70.00’s. That is still the case, and with the strong than usual move we have been seeing of late, this pair seems to indicate it finally got its bearings together. Just to wet your appetite, this year’s YS2 at 71.34 could be hit. Therefore if we get a return to 79.65, which also the YR1, your antennas should go up.
This week we should see a recovery of the strong drop that ended last week, as we see the pair move towards the WR2 at 77.56. It is possible to see a move a little higher.

GBP/USD: This pair is now facing very strong R at the bottom of the 4-hour cloud at .5590. If the pair makes it through the cloud, then the top at 1.5658 figures to contain. In either event, it figures to be a sharp reversal back to the DOWN that could see the WS2 at 1.5348 being paid a visit this week.

USD/CHF: I figure this pair is still stuck in some tight consolidation. The top of the weekly cloud at .9473 was missed by 5 pips, and I’m not content in know the DOWN is ready o resume until it has been hit. What will be hit this week is the WS1 at .9346. What could be hit and is well within range is the WS2 at .9304. Other than that, it might pay to be looking north. If the WR2 at .9470 is hit, then all that is needed is a 3-pip move on the other side to hit the top of the weekly cloud.

EUR/CHF: The bottom of the 4-hour cloud is 1.2211. Combine that with the WR1 at 1.2217, and that should make for a nice confluence of containment for the week. The reversal should take the pair to the WS2 at 1.2103 or lower.
MT, the thing to remember about this pair is that it began a reversal but failed to hit the bottom of the weekly cloud. There has been no momentous thrust behind the move. This pair could still be looking at eventually needing a move to 1.2637 before we see any meaningful reversal.

AUD/USD: This pair still has .9537 on its radar and even much lower. If this pair finishes the week on top of 1.0233, then put 1.0498 on your MT radar before we get the reversal we are looking for. This week solid containment will be seen at 1.0143, which is the top of the 4-hout cloud, and the WS1 is 1.0146, so it is also a solid cluster. The continued move north should take the pair to 1.0333 without much of a problem.

USD/CAD: Containment should be seen this week at the cluster R area of 1.0229. We could see a strong spike through that area to the WR1 at 1.0246. 1.0059 is on the radar, but may not be hit this week as the WS3 is 1.0064, and it is doubtful the pair will move that strong.

NZD/USD: This pair is preparing for a big drop, but for now, is still enjoying the northern skies. We should see the 4-hour cloud broken into this week, and see the pair move to the other side to the bottom at a projected .7702. The WS1 is .7713, so that area figures to hold. The reversal will take the pair back up through the cloud and we will see it break out and rise to the WR2 at .7890.

EUR/GBP: Like many of the euro pairs, this pair is preparing to explode north, but a move farther south is still needed in preparation for the big event. MT, the pair has the bottom of the monthly cloud on its radar a .8167. The pair could break the bottom of the cloud and we see another strong dip, but for not I’ll stay with .8167 as containing.
Considering this is the monthly and even 100 pips on the other side is nothing, watch for the YS1 at .8111
There is something else to keep in mind about this pair. This entire downtrend is only a MT correction in a LT UP. As long as circa YS1 contains, it will verify just that. That being the case, the rest of the year points north.
For this week, there will be containment to the upside in the WR1-WR2 area from .8355to .8381. The WS1 at .8305 is virtually on the radar, and a drop to the WS2 at .8279 is even foreseeable.

EUR/JPY: Even though this pair is headed to the low 90.00’s, it is dur for a huge MT reversal before it gets there. It may need to move into the high 97.00’s before we see the correction take place, and it does not look likely that will happen this week, as the WS1 at 98.86 figures to contain the downside, and the should approach the WR2 at 100.99 on the upside.

GBP/JPY: Any attempt to move higher will be contained by the WR1 at 120.32. We could see the WS2 at 117.84 be hit this week. That is the beginning of the S zone towards 117.64 which could yield a sizeable move north.

Misc Monthly S&R's--0112

2011-12-30T18:33:00.002-05:00

Gold 1809.51 1697.63 1630.24 1495.44 1428.05 1316.17
Silver 35.6021 31.9909 29.8154 25.4646 23.2891 19.6779
Crude Oil 109.5392 104.7364 101.8432 96.0568 93.1636 88.3608
DIJA 12839.85 12558.26 12388.63 12049.37 11879.74 11598.15

Monthly S&R's--0112

2011-12-30T18:28:00.002-05:00

Pair R3 R2 R1 S1 S2 S3
EUR/USD 1.3644 1.3330 1.3140 1.2762 1.2572 1.2258
USD/JPY 78.23 77.62 77.25 76.51 76.14 75.53
GBP/USD 1.5949 1.5759 1.5645 1.5417 1.5303 1.5113
USD/CHF 0.9800 0.9613 0.9500 0.9274 0.9161 0.8974
EUR/CHF 1.2470 1.2329 1.2245 1.2075 1.1991 1.1850
AUD/USD 1.0744 1.0501 1.0355 1.0061 0.9915 0.9672
USD/CAD 1.0584 1.0413 1.0310 1.0104 1.0001 0.9830
NZD/USD 0.8206 0.8009 0.7891 0.7653 0.7535 0.7338
EUR/GBP 0.8644 0.8502 0.8416 0.8244 0.8158 0.8016
EUR/JPY 105.85 103.00 101.29 97.85 96.14 93.29
GBP/JPY 123.01 121.41 120.45 118.53 117.57 115.97

Misc weekly S&R's--010112

2011-12-30T18:07:00.002-05:00

Gold 1650.12 1610.53 1586.69 1538.99 1515.15 1475.56
Silver 35.60 31.99 29.82 25.46 23.29 19.6779
Crude Oil 102.42 100.85 99.90 98.00 97.05 95.4768
DJIA 12839.85 12558.26 12388.63 12049.37 11879.74 11598.15

Weekly S&R's--010112

2011-12-30T18:04:00.002-05:00

R3 R2 R1 S1 S2 S3
EUR/USD 1.3178 1.3075 1.3013 1.2889 1.2827 1.2724
USD/JPY 78.12 77.56 77.22 76.54 76.20 75.64
GBP/USD 1.5866 1.5714 1.5622 1.5440 1.5348 1.5196
USD/CHF 0.9538 0.9470 0.9428 0.9346 0.9304 0.9236
EUR/CHF 1.2264 1.2217 1.2188 1.2132 1.2103 1.2056
AUD/USD 1.0437 1.0333 1.0270 1.0146 1.0083 0.9979
USD/CAD 1.0350 1.0285 1.0246 1.0168 1.0129 1.0064
NZD/USD 0.7988 0.7890 0.7831 0.7713 0.7654 0.7556
EUR/GBP 0.8423 0.8381 0.8355 0.8305 0.8279 0.8237
EUR/JPY 102.16 100.99 100.28 98.86 98.15 96.98
GBP/JPY 122.52 121.14 120.32 118.66 117.84 116.46

Yearly S&R's--2012

2011-12-30T17:54:00.001-05:00

Pair R3 R2 R1 S1 S2 S3
EUR/USD 1.5031 1.4087 1.3519 1.2383 1.1815 1.0871
USD/JPY 87.02 82.42 79.65 74.11 71.34 66.74
GBP/USD 1.7030 1.6350 1.5941 1.5121 1.4712 1.4032
USD/CHF 1.2993 1.1357 1.0372 0.8402 0.7417 0.5781
EUR/CHF 1.5992 1.4254 1.3207 1.1113 1.0066 0.8328
AUD/USD 1.2048 1.1213 1.0711 0.9705 0.9203 0.8368
USD/CAD 1.1563 1.0948 1.0578 0.9836 0.9466 0.8851
NZD/USD 0.9657 0.8802 0.8287 0.7257 0.6742 0.5887
EUR/GBP 0.9132 0.8768 0.8549 0.8111 0.7892 0.7528
EUR/JPY 123.52 112.66 106.11 93.03 86.48 75.62
GBP/JPY 143.20 132.45 125.97 113.01 106.53 95.78
CHF/JPY 109.12 96.84 89.45 74.65 67.26 54.98
GBP/CHF 1.6864 1.5812 1.5179 1.3911 1.3278 1.2226
EUR/AUD 1.4407 1.3627 1.3158 1.2218 1.1749 1.0969
EUR/CAD 1.4881 1.4129 1.3676 1.2770 1.2317 1.1565
AUD/CAD 1.0979 1.0724 1.0570 1.0262 1.0108 0.9853
AUD/JPY 98.04 89.16 83.82 73.12 67.78 58.90
NZD/JPY 75.41 68.31 64.03 55.49 51.21 44.11
CAD/JPY 93.38 85.16 80.21 70.31 65.36 57.14
GBP/AUD 1.6999 1.6190 1.5703 1.4729 1.4242 1.3433
GBP/CAD 1.7038 1.6501 1.6177 1.5529 1.5205 1.4668
GBP/NZD 2.4256 2.2312 2.1141 1.8799 1.7628 1.5684
EUR/NZD 2.0115 1.8545 1.7599 1.5707 1.4761 1.3191
AUD/NZD 1.4697 1.3984 1.3554 1.2696 1.2266 1.1553
AUD/CHF 1.3132 1.1511 1.0534 0.8582 0.7605 0.5984
NZD/CHF 0.9508 0.8499 0.7891 0.6675 0.6067 0.5058
NZD/CAD 0.9449 0.8759 0.8343 0.7513 0.7097 0.6407
CAD/CHF 1.2810 1.1180 1.0199 0.8235 0.7254 0.5624
Gold 2295.24 1963.06 1762.95 1362.73 1162.62 830.44
Silver 52.90 41.45 34.54 20.74 13.83 2.38
Crude Oil 151.58 127.71 113.33 84.57 70.19 46.32
DIJA 15175.66 13834.66 13026.83 11411.17 10603.34 9262.34
DAX 9040.47 7611.12 6750.06 5027.94 4166.88 2737.53
Copper 11592.51 9749.95 8639.97 6420.03 5310.05 3467.49

Nifty S&R's

2011-12-30T16:58:00.000-05:00

Yearly-2012

Nifty

6326.40

5554.27

5089.14

4158.86

3693.73

2921.60

Monthly-0112

Nifty--M

5230.54

4955.44

4789.72

4458.28

4292.56

4017.46

Weekly-010112

Nifty

4815.46

4728.62

4676.31

4571.69

4519.38

4432.54

Weekly Review--122511

2011-12-30T16:53:00.000-05:00

EUR/USD: This market has got to make its move to 1.3280 and quickly. There is much R on the 4-hour. It is starting to run out of time and faces the possibility of another drop to 1.2710. The WS1 needs to hold at 1.2987. If it does, then it paves the way to at least the WR2 at 1.3164. If the spike favors the euro, then the WR3 at 1.3262 should be hit, and then the pair sees it way to higher ground at the start of 2012.

This pair went sideways to start the week, as it was not match for the R on the 4-hour. Finally, it was a huge hourly candle that took out the WS1 on the way to the dip for the week at 1.2864.

USD/JPY: Once again, not much to comment on. The pair is a sleeper, but one of these days it will awake and bust out. It appears if 77.88 hold, then the pair should hit the WR3 at 78.59.

77.88 did not hold, and the pair finally made a worthwhile move. I did start this version of the WR one hour before the market closed, but the dip to this point is 76.89.

GBP/USD: The strong bear finish that ended last week should continue. Circa 1.5544 needs to contain or the pair is headed to the WS2 at 1.5414 and even lower. As long as the former contains, then the pair is headed to WR2 at 1.5754 and higher.

The 1.5544 area did not contain, and it was a very strong hourly candle that took it out, as the dip was 1.5360.

USD/CHF: Either .9305 gets broken convincingly and we head to .9057 over coming weeks, or it contains and we head to the WR2 at .9448 this week. Many pairs are on the bubble this week, and this is one of them.

We did make it to the WR2 this week as the peak was .9469.

EUR/CHF: This pair appears ready for a correction back to the daily tenken at 1.2279, and then the reversal should take it even lower.

The tenken took a strong dip, and as it turned out it was hit, in spite of the peak being only 1.2237. The dip was 1.2133, as of this writing.

AUD/USD: The upside is limited for this pair to the top of the daily cloud at 1.0278. If we allow for any spike north, the WS2 at 1.0320 would be the limit. That should mark the beginning of a return to the monthly kijun at .9572. A convincing break of .9822 will signal a very quick move the rest of the way. That whole scenario will not unfold this week.

The pair found its way on top of the cloud, but the peak was 1.0268.

USD/CAD: This week the bottom of the 4-hour cloud at 1.0237 should be containment. The WS2 is 1.0075, so the top of the weekly cloud at 1.0051 could also be hit.

This has been a strange week, and this pair is no exception. The peak was 1.0267, but the 4-hour cloud did contain, as it was never hit. It peak at the time the bottom moved. Other than that, the pair went mostly sideways this week as the dip was only 1.1025.

NZD/USD: This pair still has the potential of breaking through the bottom of the daily cloud and heading to the top, as the cloud is not that thick. That would currently be .7924. As long as the top of the 4-hour cloud at .7669 contains this week, then we will come very close to the former mentioned mark.

Technically, the cloud did contain, as the pair played on the edge and the dip was .7651. This pair also decided to head east until Friday. By then it was too late to make any real progress north, as the peak was .7810.

EUR/GBP: It appears that no higher than the WR1 at .8398 can be expected this week, and then we should see another reversal to take it to the WS2 at .8305, maybe lower, as we see this pair continue to plod southbound towards .8167.

This is one of the slowest moving pairs, and it did anything but go sideways. It was highly volatile. It shot to the peak at .8420, and then hammered south. As of this writing, the dip for the week is .8327, so it still has a chance at the WS2.

EUR/JPY: With the exception of any minor correction we might see at the beginning of the week, the southward march should continue to at least the WS2 at 101.15. That area should be treated as a decision point.

The decision was made. It was a continuation that took the pair to the lowest low since December 2000 at 99.40.

GBP/JPY: Unlike its cousin, this pair would be a stretch to hit the WS1 at 121.06. As long as the WS1 contains, then this pair should be locked in with the WR2 at 122.92.

The WR1 at 122.29 was missed by 2 pips. It was ugly what this pair did to the WS1. Needless to say, it did not contain, as the hourly candle bridged the WS1>WS2, and the dip for the week was 119.25.

Misc Indian Market S&R's--122511

2011-12-26T11:11:00.002-05:00

I just now got the data for these markets.

Rel Ind 805.96 777.37 760.15 725.71 708.49 679.90
SBI 1764.45 1710.13 1677.40 1611.96 1579.23 1524.91
Tata Steel 371.53 360.10 353.22 339.44 332.56 321.13
Tata Motors 203.86 195.09 189.81 179.25 173.97 165.20

Misc weekly S&R's--122511

2011-12-25T23:23:00.002-05:00

Gold 1665.88 1639.17 1623.09 1590.91 1574.83 1548.12
Silver 30.58 29.89 29.47 28.63 28.21 27.5205
Crude Oil 107.84 104.20 102.01 97.63 95.44 91.8021
DJIA 12864.12 12601.00 12442.50 12125.50 11967.00 11703.88

2011-12-24T19:52:00.000-05:00

I want to wish everyone a very Merry Christmas!
I'll have to get caught up on the rest of the markets when I return from the break.

I also got several comments that needs an answer to, so they will also be addressed when I get back.

Weekly Forecast--122511

2011-12-24T19:50:00.002-05:00

Weekly S&R's--122511

2011-12-23T20:39:00.000-05:00

R3 R2 R1 S1 S2 S3
EUR/USD 1.3262 1.3164 1.3105 1.2987 1.2928 1.2830
USD/JPY 78.59 78.34 78.19 77.89 77.74 77.49
GBP/USD 1.5895 1.5754 1.5669 1.5499 1.5414 1.5273
USD/CHF 0.9519 0.9448 0.9406 0.9320 0.9278 0.9207
EUR/CHF 1.2299 1.2264 1.2242 1.2200 1.2178 1.2143
AUD/USD 1.0476 1.0320 1.0226 1.0038 0.9944 0.9788
USD/CAD 1.0437 1.0331 1.0267 1.0139 1.0075 0.9969
NZD/USD 0.7979 0.7871 0.7806 0.7676 0.7611 0.7503
EUR/GBP 0.8481 0.8429 0.8398 0.8336 0.8305 0.8253
EUR/JPY 103.11 102.53 102.19 101.49 101.15 100.57
GBP/JPY 123.94 122.92 122.30 121.06 120.44 119.42

Weekly S&R's--122511

2011-12-23T20:19:00.000-05:00

Weekly Review--121811

2011-12-23T19:16:00.000-05:00

EUR/USD: As long as this pair stays above 1.3010 this week, there should not be an issue with this week marking the beginning of the new trend. If that level breaks, then there is still danger of a fall to the WS1 at 1.2917. Even the 4-hour chart looks tough. A fresh kijun currently at 1.3106 waits to impede progress, then the WR1 at 1.3155, then a fresh cloud which should be at circa 1.3189 by the time it gets there. If it makes it to the WR2 at 1.3274, then next week it should be easier going for the pair.

The pair dipped to 1.2982, which made things kind of tough to start the week, but then it finally broke away as it spike on the other side of the WR1 and 1.3189 R level to the peak at 1.3197.

USD/JPY: My data for this pair goes back to Feb 1992. Last week’s range of 59 pips marked the low for that entire period. That’s how inept things are getting for this pair. There are no real trading opportunities here. Even though the pair is caught in an updraft, 78.10 could be hit, but it looks like it could blow the hourly off the chart. zzzz

This pair performed even worse this week than it did last week. The peak was 78.22, but the entire range was 55 pips. It look like a huge rally on the hourly.

GBP/USD: The strong finish that ended last week should continue, but briefly. The WS1 at 1.5476 needs to contain any correction. As long as that is the case, then the WR2 at 1.5684 should be visited.

The WS1 did contain as the dip was 1.5464, and so the WR2 was visited (and then some) as the peak was 1.5773.

USD/CHF: MT, .8948 still looks like a reasonable target. The main level to look for his week is .9249. A strong break of that, and it could put .8948 on the radar. It will take a runaway freight train to break it on the first try, because my WS1 is .9267. If .9461 contains the upside, then it is still a matter of time when that will happen.

The dip was .9244, and then we had the sharp reversal, so .9249 did containContainment held to the upside as the peak was .9398.

EUR/CHF: It is not too often than at the beginning of a reversal after a lethargic market the polar 3 is on the radar, but this is one of those weeks. The WS3 is 1.2009, and it should be hit this week. The key level to watch for on the way there is 1.2129. That is the 2 on a 1-2-3 on the weekly. It will also amount to extreme stochastic divergence next to a very bearish cloud.

The overall movement for the CHF disappointed, so the dip was only 1.2163

AUD/USD: If the outlooks are correct thus far, then the Aussie crosses are about to get crushed this week. For that not to happen, then this has to be a volatile week for this pair. I’ll just give the view the way I see it on the charts. The bottom of the daily cloud is 1.0070 and the WR1 is 1.0066. That should contain any move north this week. There is still very strong momentum pointing south, and .9793 is key S. If that is broken, then we are safely in the DOWN and heading towards .9572 and even beyond that. Considering the WS2 is .9775, that scenario could prevail.

The week was not that volatile. I was just wrong, as the pair still has no interest in progressing southward. The pair started the week to the dip at .9883, and then reversed to the peak at 1.0219

USD/CAD: Even though LT speculation says we are headed to 1.1085, this pair does not seem to have any interest or urgency in getting there. It still appears this pair is going to finish what it started at the end of last week and that’s its move north. Look for WR1 at 1.0441 to contain, or even the MR2 at 1.0481. Key levels to the up and down are 1.0470 and 1.0058. Either one of those levels taken out convincingly, then we have a strong move, which means either we are back in the LT move north, or back in the consolidation at sub-parity.

The peak was only 1.0413, and then it headed to the dip at 1.0180.

NZD/USD: Unlike its cousin, the AUD/USD, this pair has much more room to breath on top. Any move south needs to be contained by the WS1 at .7528, or like many of the USD pairs, the outlook becomes a little confusing. As long as that is the case, then it appears the WR2 at .7768 is clearly on the radar.

And unlike its cousin, I was right on the forecast as the dip was .7542 and it hit the radar as the peak was .7774

EUR/GBP: There is now little doubt this pair is headed to .8167, and the quicker it gets there, the better. If it arrives quickly, then it provides the means for an explosive reversal. There is still plenty of room and move for a downward thrust to happen this week. It is expected the WS2 at .8287 will be hit. I would treat that as a decision point for what will possibly follow afterward.

The pair reversed shortly before it got to the decision point as the dip was .8302

EUR/JPY: This pair is still getting strong pressure to continue south from the monthly and weekly, but there appears there is going to be some restraint this week. The WS1 at 100.66 and MS2, 100.64 area probably contains, as the pair prepares for a move that should take it back to at least the MS1 at 102.48, and even the WR2 at 103.05.

It was eventful week as the dip was 101.26, and the MS1 contained as the peak was 102.52

GBP/JPY: This pair should finish off what it ended last week and that is the completion of its move north. There is very strong R in the WR1 area at 121.36. Unlike its cousin, the EUR/JPY, there is greater potential to the downside as the WS2 at 120.13 could be hit, and could go even lower than that.

The WS1 at 120.54 ended up containing as the dip was 120.41, and then it took off to the peak at 122.75.

Nifty weeklies--122511

2011-12-23T10:18:00.000-05:00

Nifty 4963.49 4853.06 4786.53 4653.47 4586.94 4476.51

Someone asked if my levels are for Nifty spot of Nifty future. I'm not sure. Current rate is 4720.80 if that helps. The label is India50. There is also another-- NSE Nifty.

The WR3 could be hit next week. Watch for a vicious spike to start the week. It always happens after Christmas.

Merry Christmas to all my readers!

Misc Indian Market S&R's--121811

2011-12-18T11:22:00.002-05:00

Nifty 4902.06 4775.95 4699.97 4548.03 4472.05 4345.94
Rel Ind 762.01 742.50 730.75 707.25 695.50 675.99
SBI 1898.92 1795.32 1732.91 1608.09 1545.68 1442.08

DJIA

2011-12-17T17:14:00.001-05:00

The ichimoku is our best friend for this market. Last week it ran into massive support between the weekly tenken at 11688 and the daily kijun at 11708. Those levels will probably contain to start the week, but it is necessary for the daily tenken at 11994 to contain the upside for the DOWN to continue with its predictability. As long as this is all the case, then it has the weekly kijun at 11535 and the bottom of the daily cloud at 11272 to look forward to, and most likely it will be heading much lower.

Silver

2011-12-17T17:04:00.001-05:00

All downside objectives have been hit for this market, but it seems the move south is far from over. That being said, there is a need for it to do some correcting before it can feel comfortable to continue its journey. A move back o the daily tenken at 30.66 and the kijun at 31.50 may satisfy the corrective requirement. There still could be some trails to the east before it turns due south again.

Gold

2011-12-17T16:55:00.001-05:00

Ever since July, this market has had the monthly kijun in its sight. The current level is 1481.03. With last week's move, the binoculars are no longer necessary to see it, even though the likely event is it will not hit be hit this week. It should continue up to start the week. The 1610--1619.20--1638.27 area is containment. As long as that area contains for the week, then it is likely the WS2 at 1510.85 will be hit.

Crude Oil

2011-12-17T16:44:00.001-05:00

This market is looking to be contained on the downside this week at the WS1 at 91.53, which is a strong cluster event. It is possible to see a move up to circa 94.67 before it continues south. Upon arrival, it will be ready to begin its corrective journey to the WR1 at 96.35. There is also the MS1 in that area at 96.65 which will add additional R. It is not for a certainty the market will make it back that far before the week is over.
The market is preparing for a deeper MT drop to the weekly tenken at 89.17.

Misc weekly S&R's--121811

2011-12-17T16:30:00.002-05:00

Gold 1754.65 1683.15 1640.07 1553.93 1510.85 1439.35
Silver 33.99 32.01 30.83 28.45 27.27 25.2942
Crude Oil 102.75 98.76 96.35 91.53 89.12 85.1268
DJIA 12322.56 12114.58 11989.29 11738.71 11613.42 11405.44

Weekly Forecast--121811

2011-12-17T15:04:00.000-05:00

EUR/USD: As long as this pair stays above 1.3010 this week, there should not be an issue with this week marking the beginning of the new trend. If that level breaks, then there is still danger of a fall to the WS1 at 1.2917. Even the 4-hour chart looks tough. A fresh kijun currently at 1.3106 waits to impede progress, then the WR1 at 1.3155, then a fresh cloud which should be at circa 1.3189 by the time it gets there. If it makes it to the WR2 at 1.3274, then next week it should be easier going for the pair

USD/JPY: My data for this pair goes back to Feb 1992. Last week’s range of 59 pips marked the low for that entire period. That’s how inept things are getting for this pair. There are no real trading opportunities here. Even though the pair is caught in an updraft, 78.10 could be hit, but it looks like it could blow the hourly off the chart. zzzz

GBP/USD: The strong finish that ended last week should continue, but briefly. The WS1 at 1.5476 needs to contain any correction. As long as that is the case, then the WR2 at 1.5684 should be visited.

USD/CHF: MT, .8948 still looks like a reasonable target. The main level to look for his week is .9249. A strong break of that, and it could put .8948 on the radar. It will take a runaway freight train to break it on the first try, because my WS1 is .9267. If .9461 contains the upside, then it is still a matter of time when that will happen.

EUR/CHF: It is not too often than at the beginning of a reversal after a lethargic market the polar 3 is on the radar, but this is one of those weeks. The WS3 is 1.2009, and it should be hit this week. The key level to watch for on the way there is 1.2129. That is the 2 on a 1-2-3 on the weekly. It will also amount to extreme stochastic divergence next to a very bearish cloud.

AUD/USD: If the outlooks are correct thus far, then the Aussie crosses are about to get crushed this week. For that not to happen, then this has to be a volatile week for this pair. I’ll just give the view the way I see it on the charts. The bottom of the daily cloud is 1.0070 and the WR1 is 1.0066. That are should contain any move north this week. There is still very strong momentum pointing south, and .9793 is key S. If that is broken, then we are safely in the DOWN and heading towards .9572 and even beyond that. Considering the WS2 is .9775, that scenario could prevail.

USD/CAD: Even though LT speculation says we are headed to 1.1085, this pair does not seem to have any interest or urgency in getting there. It still appears this pair is going to finish what it started at the end of last week and that’s its move north. Look for WR1 at 1.0441 to contain, or even the MR2 at 1.0481. Key levels to the up and down are 1.0470 and 1.0058. Either one of those levels taken out convincingly, then we have a strong move, which means either we are back in the LT move north, or back in the consolidation at sub-parity.

NZD/USD: Unlike its cousin, the AUD/USD, this pair has much more room to breath on top. Any move south needs to be contained by the WS1 at .7528, or like many of the USD pairs, the outlook becomes a little confusing. As long as that is the case, then it appears the WR2 at .7768 is clearly on the radar.

EUR/GBP: There is now little doubt this pair is headed to .8167, and the quicker it gets there, the better. If it arrives quickly, then it provides the means for an explosive reversal. There is still plenty of room and move for a downward thrust to happen this week. It is expected the WS2 at .8287 will be hit. I would treat that as a decision point for what will possibly follow afterward.

EUR/JPY: This pair is still getting strong pressure to continue south from the monthly and weekly, but there appears there is going to be some restraint this week. The WS1 at 100.66 and MS2, 100.64 area probably contains, as the pair prepares for a move that should take it back to at least the MS1 at 102.48, and even the WR2 at 103.05.

GBP/JPY: This pair should finish off what it ended last week and that is the completion of its move north. There is very strong R in the WR1 area at 121.36. Unlike its cousin, the EUR/JPY, there is greater potential to the downside as the WS2 at 120.13 could be hit, and could go even lower than that.

The Aussie

2011-12-17T14:25:00.001-05:00

In my Weekly Forecast keep your eye on the difference between the AUD/USD outlook and the others like the GBP/USD, EUR/USD, and USD/CHF. If the WF is right this week, then the Aussie is getting crushed.

Weekly S&R's--121811

2011-12-16T18:57:00.003-05:00

R3 R2 R1 S1 S2 S3
EUR/USD 1.3472 1.3274 1.3155 1.2917 1.2798 1.2600
USD/JPY 78.39 78.12 77.96 77.64 77.48 77.21
GBP/USD 1.5799 1.5684 1.5614 1.5476 1.5406 1.5291
USD/CHF 0.9681 0.9533 0.9445 0.9267 0.9179 0.9031
EUR/CHF 1.2396 1.2308 1.2256 1.2150 1.2098 1.2010
AUD/USD 1.0325 1.0163 1.0066 0.9872 0.9775 0.9613
USD/CAD 1.0633 1.0516 1.0446 1.0304 1.0234 1.0117
NZD/USD 0.7901 0.7768 0.7688 0.7528 0.7448 0.7315
EUR/GBP 0.8567 0.8485 0.8436 0.8336 0.8287 0.8205
EUR/JPY 104.36 103.05 102.25 100.67 99.87 98.56
GBP/JPY 122.46 121.77 121.36 120.54 120.13 119.44

Weekly S&R's--121811

2011-12-16T18:57:00.000-05:00

Nifty

2011-12-16T18:36:00.002-05:00

Nifty 4902.06 4775.95 4699.97 4548.03 4472.05 4345.94

There was too much R above for the correction to continue, and so the market is now finding new lows in order to substantiate a footing for the correction. With the strong momentous thrust that ended the week, my MS1 at 4640 will not contain, and it virtually puts the WS1 at 4548 on the radar. As far as the return to the UP is concerned, for now, I'm treating the WS1 as a decision point.

Weekly Review--121111

2011-12-16T18:35:00.000-05:00

As a beginning note, this was week was out of control. It is totally uncommon for 2’s to be hit by the end of Tokyo the first day of the week. That is what happened this past week. Freight trains had their whistles blowing and steam blowing from all stacks.
This is one of my 2 worse weeks this year for the Weekly Forecast.

EUR/USD: There is a reason this pair is having trouble making its move south. That is because it has not made its move north, first. Having said that, it is possible for the WS2 at 1.3273 to be hit. Needless to say, the WR2 at 1.3497 should be hit, and if this is the week of the strong breakaway north, then look for the WR3 at 1.3591 to be hit.

The WS3 at 1.3179 was hit on Monday, and the market never recovered.

USD/JPY: There is now cluster R at 77.95. If that is broken, then there will be a very strong thrust north. That level matches rather nicely with my WR1 at 77.91, which suggest that could be containment for the week or the means for a strong breakout. Watch for reaction at the WS2 at 77.10 on the downside.

The cluster R area was taken out, nut only with a mild ascent to the peak at 78.14, then there was a quick reversal to 77.60, as the altitude was a little too high for this pair.

GBP/USD: The WS1 at 1.5611 has to hold this week or things turn ugly. Like the EUR/USD, it is necessary for the strong move north before it continues its MT move south. As long as the former scenario holds that virtually puts the WR2 at 1.5782 on the radar. Very strong R will be seen at 1.5868, and it looks impenetrable this week.

And things sure got ugly, as the bottom fell out to the dip at 1.5408.

USD/CHF: This could be the pair to stage the upcoming weakness for the USD that will break all the crosses out of its funk. If so much as the WS1 at .9189 is hit this week. That could be all that is needed to signal the reversal that will take this pair back to the top of the daily cloud at .8930.

Upside containment at .9537 (.9546 was actually the peak) was needed to signal the reversal, and it was strong.

EUR/CHF: The point to look for on this pair is 1.2262. We need it broken or things stay tight.

The charts will show a huge 4-hour candle. That was the candle that took out the 1.2262 level, as the dip was 1.2202.

AUD/USD: A couple of different possible scenarios are now unfolding for this pair. Key R is 1.0273 and allowing for a spike north to the WR1 at 1.0309. As long as this holds, then the strong move south that we witnessed on Thursday and the beginning of Friday was the real deal. If it is broken, then there is a possibility it could head to the next cluster event at 1.0578, and then from that point it will lead into some consolidative activity before we get the next strong break south. The best way to gauge the price action for this week is to watch the reaction at the former level. It will be accompanied by some strong price action.

We got the strong price action without needing the 1.0273, as the dip was .9862

USD/CAD: This week will start off with the continued move south as the pair heads to the WS1 at 1.0111. It is even possible to see the drop continue to the WS2 at 1.0053. This pair is still vulnerable for a deeper MT drop. If the recent dip at .9891 is taken out, then that puts the focus back on .9707.

This call wasn’t pretty. The dip was the open price at 1.0169, and then the pair took off to the peak at 1.0422

NZD/USD: This pair made an impressive drop to end the week, but just as impressive was the recovery in the last 12 hours. Things are now subject to some volatility because the pair is in a wide open range. It is still practical to see the move continue to .7938, but we need a down move first to at least .7619 in order for proper symmetry to prevail and to add some assuredness to the drop once we get to .7938. Ideal containment this week to the north would be the WR1 at .7814, and then see a move to the WS2 at .7613 or lower. As long as that happens, then it leaves this pair open to conclude the rest of the uptrend in preparation for what should be a huge move south.

As was symptomatic for the USD pairs this week, Usd strength prevailed, as this pair wasted no time taking off to the dip at .7460.

EUR/GBP: This is another of those mixed signals type. It needs to make its strong up move, so it can prepare to go deeper. It is having a struggle because of the strong downward pressure it faces, so here we go again. The MS1 at .8512 contained last week and figures to do so this week, which is also combined with additional support from the WS1 at .8508. We need a move to .8657, at least, and then the consolidative narrow range will be broken. That would fit in nicely with the WR3 at .8656. Will it be hit this week? I’ll let you know next week at this time.

Additional support and all, it was ripped out as the downward pressure finally prevailed, and the dip was secured at .8372.

EUR/JPY: I hate to sound like a broken record, but this is just the state of affairs most of the major pairs are in right now. There is strong downward pressure that is preventing the recovery that is necessary to shake the funk. Once again, the downside should be limited to the WS1 at 103.38. The R is growing as it heads north, and it could spark some strong breaks. Key R’s will be 105.36, 106.34, and 107.15. With the WR2 being 105.03, getting to the former would be an accomplishment.

And I’ll sound like a broken record again. The downside pressure prevailed at the dip was 101.03.

GBP/JPY: The all-time low at 116.82 figures to hold before the recent peak at 127.29 is broken, therefore, it is still expected that circa 131.11 will be hit. The WS1 at 121.26 figures to contain, before we get the move north that should take us to the WR2 at 122.39. It will take a strong move, but the WR3 at 123.02 is within the realm of possibility.

The week started with an attack on the WS2 at 120.89, then there was a modest recovery to the peak at 121.78, then the return south took the pair to the dip at the WS3 at 120.27.

Misc Indian Market S&R's--121111

2011-12-11T23:30:00.002-05:00

Rel Ind 817.15 786.97 768.78 732.42 714.23 684.05
SBI 2002.86 1941.59 1904.69 1830.87 1793.97 1732.70
Tata Steel 428.36 414.81 406.65 390.31 382.15 368.60

DIJA

2011-12-11T19:51:00.001-05:00

This market is looking similar to Crude. 12303 has to contain for this week, or it is headed to 12580. If it contains, and we get a firm break of 11665, then the recent dip at 10402 gets challenged.
To begin this week, the WR1 at 12280 will be hit. After the bounce, it could continue to the MR1 at 12331 and the WR2 at 12372. The higher up it goes, the sharper the retreat to end the week will have to be.
There is little doubt the market will not get any lower than the WS2 at 12000.

Weekly Forecast--121111

2011-12-11T19:50:00.000-05:00

EUR/USD: There is a reason this pair is having trouble making its move south. That is because it has not made its move north, first. Having said that, it is possible for the WS2 at 1.3273 to be hit. Needless to say, the WR2 at 1.3497 should be hit, and if this is the week of the strong breakaway north, then look for the WR3 at 1.3591 to be hit.

USD/JPY: There is now cluster R at 77.95. If that is broken, then there will be a very strong thrust north. That level matches rather nicely with my WR1 at 77.91, which suggest that could be containment for the week or the means for a strong breakout. Watch for reaction at the WS2 at 77.10 on the downside.

GBP/USD: The WS1 at 1.5611 has to hold this week or things turn ugly. Like the EUR/USD, it is necessary for the strong move north before it continues its MT move south. As long as the former scenario holds that virtually puts the WR2 at 1.5782 on the radar. Very strong R will be seen at 1.5868, and it looks impenetrable this week.

USD/CHF: This could be the pair to stage the upcoming weakness for the USD that will break all the crosses out of its funk. If so much as the WS1 at .9189 is hit this week. That could be all that is needed to signal the reversal that will take this pair back to the top of the daily cloud at .8930.

EUR/CHF: The point to look for on this pair is 1.2262. We need it broken or things stay tight.

AUD/USD: A couple of different possible scenarios are now unfolding for this pair. Key R is 1.0273 and allowing for a spike north to the WR1 at 1.0309. As long as this holds, then the strong move south that we witnessed on Thursday and the beginning of Friday was the real deal. If it is broken, then there is a possibility it could head to the next cluster event at 1.0578, and then from that point it will lead into some consolidative activity before we get the next strong break south. The best way to gauge the price action for this week is to watch the reaction at the former level. It will be accompanied by some strong price action.

USD/CAD: This week will start off with the continued move south as the pair heads to the WS1 at 1.0111. It is even possible to see the drop continue to the WS2 at 1.0053. This pair is still vulnerable for a deeper MT drop. If the recent dip at .9891 is taken out, then that puts the focus back on .9707.

NZD/USD: This pair made an impressive drop to end the week, but just as impressive was the recovery in the last 12 hours. Things are now subject to some volatility because the pair is in a wide open range. It is still practical to see the move continue to .7938, but we need a down move first to at least .7619 in order for proper symmetry to prevail and to add some assuredness to the drop once we get to .7938. Ideal containment this week to the north would be the WR1 at .7814, and then see a move to the WS2 at .7613 or lower. As long as that happens, then it leaves this pair open to conclude the rest of the uptrend in preparation for what should be a huge move south.

EUR/GBP: This is another of those mixed signals type. It needs to make its strong up move, so it can prepare to go deeper. It is having a struggle because of the strong downward pressure it faces, so here we go again. The MS1 at .8512 contained last week and figures to do so this week, which is also combined with additional support from the WS1 at .8508. We need a move to .8657, at least, and then the consolidative narrow range will be broken. That would fit in nicely with the WR3 at .8656. Will it be hit this week? I’ll let you know next week at this time.

EUR/JPY: I hate to sound like a broken record, but this is just the state of affairs most of the major pairs are in right now. There is strong downward pressure that is preventing the recovery that is necessary to shake the funk. Once again, the downside should be limited to the WS1 at 103.38The R is growing as it heads north, and it could spark some strong breaks. Key R’s will be 105.36, 106.34, and 107.15. With the WR2 being 105.03, getting to the former would be an accomplishment.

GBP/JPY: The all-time low at 116.82 figures to hold before the recent peak at 127.29 is broken, therefore, it is still expected that circa 131.11 will be hit. The WS1 at 121.26 figures to contain, before we get the move north that should take us to the WR2 at 122.39. It will take a strong move, but the WR3 at 123.02 is within the realm of possibility.

Weekly S&R's--121111

2011-12-11T19:48:00.005-05:00

R3 R2 R1 S1 S2 S3
EUR/USD 1.3591 1.3497 1.3441 1.3329 1.3273 -1.3179
USD/JPY 78.63 78.18 77.91 77.37 77.10 -76.65
GBP/USD 1.5877 1.5782 1.5725 1.5611 1.5554 -1.5459
USD/CHF 0.9356 0.9297 0.9261 0.9189 0.9153 -0.9094
EUR/CHF 1.2482 1.2423 1.2387 1.2315 1.2279 -1.2220
AUD/USD 1.0554 1.0401 1.0309 1.0125 1.0033 -0.9880
USD/CAD 1.0381 1.0285 1.0227 1.0111 1.0053 -0.9957
NZD/USD 0.7993 0.7881 0.7814 0.7680 0.7613 -0.7501
EUR/GBP 0.8658 0.8604 0.8572 0.8508 0.8476 -0.8422
EUR/JPY 105.94 105.03 104.48 103.38 102.83 -101.92
GBP/JPY 123.02 122.39 122.02 121.26 120.89 -120.26

Misc weekly S&R's--121111

2011-12-11T19:48:00.002-05:00

As per request:

Crude Oil 103.13 102.11 101.50 100.28 99.67 -98.65
DJIA 12313.46 12210.75 12148.87 12025.13 11963.25 -11860.54
FTSE 5723.12 5635.08 5582.04 5475.96 5422.92 -5334.88

AUD/CHF weeklies-- 121111

2011-12-11T19:46:00.002-05:00

As per request:

The WS2 at .9303 should be easy next week. The top of the weekly cloud should be hit at .9274:

AUD/CHF 0.9652 0.9549 0.9488 0.9364 0.9303 -0.9200

Weekly Review--120411

2011-12-10T06:52:00.000-05:00

EUR/USD: This pair ended last week correcting the break of the 4-hour TL, and it is almost finished. The break was at 1.3337. The WS1 is 1.3312, so that level is worth watching. We should see another strong rebound after the dip has been complete. The journey back to 1.3705 and 1.3811 has not yet been complete. The WR2 at 1.3549 probably contains this week.

It was a tight week. A look at the 4-hour chart shows the WS1 and the WR1 at 1.3471 contained as the dip and peak were 1.3485 and 1.3281, respectively.

USD/JPY: There is a cluster zone from 78.51 to 78.95 that will take a strong weekly move to get through. If the WS1 at 77.62is broken, then it could be a very quick drop to the WS2 at 77.40.

The week started to the peak at 78.10, and then broke the WS1, and the hourly chart shows what a very quick drop it was as the pair kept on dropping all the way to 77.12.

GBP/USD: The WS1 and the MS1 are both 1.5504, so that contains for the week. The reversal will take the pair to the WR2 at 1.5769, and an additional move to 1.5795 could be expected.

The dip was 1.5560, then the pair reversed to the peak at exactly the WR2 at 1.5569.

USD/CHF: This pair ended last week moving north after a sharp break of the 4-hour TL. This corrective process is close to being finished, and the WR1 at .9281 should contain, before the reversal takes us back to the weekly kijun at .8941. That whole process may not be finished this week. MT, the thing to watch out for is the reaction at the weekly kijun. If it gives out, then the drop will be sharp. The monthly tenken at .9399 has not been hit yet, and it may be necessary in order to create the necessary thrust.

The WR1 did contain, as several candle spikes were the only things that penetrated it, as the peak was .9294. Other than that, the pair went sideways in a tight squeeze, as the dip was .9199.

EUR/CHF: Ever since this pair made the strong move on Sept 6th, movement has been tight with a slight upward proclivity. It is now in a strong decision point area. It has met up with the weekly DOWN TL, and it is a matter of time when this pair is going to put on another firework show. The WR2 at 1.2433 is worth watching.

The pair appeared to bounce hard from the WR2 as the peak was 1.2441., but it slowed down just as quickly as the 4-hour cloud contained the move and the dip was 1.2311.

AUD/USD: The 4-hour kijun 1.0095 should contain the initial move south. Afterward, the move north should continue to the WR2 at 1.0467, and possibly a little beyond that. After this next upside is completed, this pair is in for another magnificent collapse.

The WR1 at 1.0358 contained, as the peak was 1.0379. From there we had a sharp break to the dip at 1.0048, just 15 pips under the WS1.

USD/CAD: The moved that ended last week going north will continue to the WR1 at 1.0291. The daily tenken at 1.0036 will contain, or we head to the WS2 at .9985. At that point, the pair is trapped in the cloud, and then it heads much lower.

The dip was 1.0051, and the peak missed the WR1 by 30 pips at 1.0261.

NZD/USD: Extra strong containment to the upside is seen at .7956. That is going to yield a reversal with strong teeth. The WR2 is .7969, so that could be accomplished this week.

As it turned out the WR1 at .7865 contained, as the peak was .7877, and then the strong reversal took the pair to the dip at .7635.

EUR/GBP: This pair is trapped. It seems to want to move higher, but can’t get the traction. The problem is if it keeps messing around in the low .8500’s, the bottom is going to give out and it will be in for a long drop. If it heads south to start the week, then the WS2 at .8533 should contain. The reversal takes the pair back to the WR1 at .8612, and possibly the WR2 at .8639.

The WS2 did not contain but the dip was only .8495, and the peak was exactly the WR1 at .8612, so it remains trapped.

EUR/JPY: If there is a strong break of 104.08, then this pair goes sideways all week. There is cluster S at 103.69 that is also my WS1, so it should contain. Even though sideways movement would be on the agenda this week, there is still enough room for it to move to the WR2 at 105.85, or the bottom of the cloud at 106.15.

The pair broke loose of the cluster S and missed the WS2 by one pip as the dip was 102.99. That accomplished after the peak was established at 104.98.

GBP/JPY: The WS1 at 120.79 seems a little too deep for any move south this week. This pair has its eye on the WR2 at 123.05, with a projected continuation to 123.32—123.82.

A look at the daily shows this pair went due east last week. With a dip and peak at 120.91 and 122.28, respectively.

GBP/NZD

2011-12-05T23:42:00.000-05:00

This pair kind of irked me, in spite of my nailing the top. I was forecasting 2.1041 to be the peak, and it was actually 2.1044. I was talking about the dramatic reversal that was about to take place. It happened!It irked me because I did not take advantage of it. My platform was loaded which is why.
It's time to say it again! Get ready! This pair is prepared for a huge reversal.

The nice thing about returning north is that the weekly monthly are in agreement. LT projection shows this pair heading to the 2.2800's (no misprint). The next clear MT target is 2.1411, however, there could be some zigzag motion before we get to that point. For now, 2.0323, 2.0500, 2.0738 appears to be clear MT targets without much interruption.

NZD/CAD

2011-12-04T17:33:00.002-05:00

This is a case of trying to find the ideal reversal point before a magnificent reversal. I do not know if it will make it all the way, but the bottom of the daily cloud would be perfect at .8056. It has the potential to hit .7564. This is a very slow moving pair. A 500-pip drop is huge.

EUR/NZD

2011-12-04T17:26:00.000-05:00

Look for containment around 1.7117, and then a strong move to daily kijun at 1.7607, and then the tenken at 1.7659.

NZD/CHF

2011-12-04T16:13:00.002-05:00

I got alerted to this pair when I was noticing that the CAD/CHF and the NZD/CAD are both due to head south. That could only mean that the NZD/CHF has to head south. Be it far from me to turn down an excellent trading opportunity.

Anywhere between current level (.7153) and .7286 presents an excellent entry that provides some explosive happiness heading south. The weekly kijun at .6565 will be hit, and it could be lower

The other thing to look for is a reaction at the MR1 at .7253, or a firm break of the MP .7124.

Weekly Forecast--120411

2011-12-03T15:39:00.001-05:00

Weekly S&R's--120411

2011-12-03T12:55:00.002-05:00

R3 R2 R1 S1 S2 S3
EUR/USD 1.3681 1.3549 1.3470 1.3312 1.3233 -1.3101
USD/JPY 78.95 78.50 78.22 77.68 77.40 -76.95
GBP/USD 1.5916 1.5769 1.5680 1.5504 1.5415 -1.5268
USD/CHF 0.9459 0.9348 0.9281 0.9147 0.9080 -0.8969
EUR/CHF 1.2510 1.2433 1.2386 1.2294 1.2247 -1.2170
AUD/USD 1.0679 1.0467 1.0339 1.0083 0.9955 -0.9743
USD/CAD 1.0562 1.0393 1.0291 1.0087 0.9985 -0.9816
NZD/USD 0.8138 0.7969 0.7868 0.7664 0.7563 -0.7394
EUR/GBP 0.8683 0.8639 0.8612 0.8560 0.8533 -0.8489
EUR/JPY 107.05 105.85 105.13 103.69 102.97 -101.77
GBP/JPY 124.30 123.05 122.29 120.79 120.03 -118.78

Nifty weeklies--120411

2011-12-03T10:34:00.002-05:00

Nifty 5451.97 5287.80 5188.90 4991.10 4892.20 -4728.03

Weekly Review--112711

2011-12-03T10:32:00.000-05:00

EUR/USD: Watch for the WS1 at 1.3139 to contain this week, and bring on the correction that has been much talked about. The correction will take this pair to the WR2 at 1.3422.

The peak was 1.3545, as the pair was challenging the WR3. There was no chance of retracement as the pair started the week with a strong spike north.

USD/JPY: A correction should begin the week, but any downside momentum should be limited to my WS2 at 77.11. Upside potential is looking strong all the time, as the pair has its eye riveted back on 78.11, and it could be hit this week.

Pretty much spot on as the peak and dip was 78.27 and 77.28.

GBP/USD: Look for the WS1 at 1.5332 to contain this week. This pair looks weaker than its cousin, the EUR/USD. Any correction should be contained at 1.5868 and take up to 2 weeks to finish.

A mild correction started the week to 1.5457, and then the peak was 1.5778.

USD/CHF: This pair is getting ominously close to a very strong reversal, and that is in spite of it cracking the weekly cloud. The monthly tenken is .9394, but the WR1 at .9354 could contain this week. If we get a strong break through circa .9216, then that will mark the beginning of a very strong correction.

We got that strong break, and the dip was .9065. The week ended by correcting the strong break.

EUR/CHF: I might be through with the talk of hitting the bottom of the weekly cloud at 1.2713. Don’t be surprised if the recent peak at 1.2439 is going to be it for awhile, as the picture is clearing up for this pair. Look for the WR1 at 1.2349, or the WR2 at 1.2395 to contain this week to bring on a strong move south. The WS2 at 1.2213 is well within range this week.

The peak was 1.2391, and the dip came within 10 pips of the WS2 at 1.2223.

AUD/USD: The correction that is around the corner should be limited to 1.0070. As is the case with many pairs this week the continuing trend should be limited by a 1 and has its eyes on a 2. WS1 is .9611 and WR2 is .9899.

The strong thrust the pair got to start the week jolted it to 1.0328.

USD/CAD: The WR1 is 1.0543, but this pair may not get that high this week. The WS2 at 1.0329 represents a cluster event, and might contain this week.

Similar to the Aussie except going south the dip went well beyond the 2 to 1.0078.

NZD/USD: Downward momentum has waned, and this pair is OS, so it is ready to move north. The WS1 is .7336, but there is room for a slight spike through it, nevertheless, that level should contain. The WR2 at .7552 is well within view.

This pair also had the strong spike to start the week as the peak was .7834.

EUR/GBP: There is still heavy pressure pushing south on this pair. Watch for a reaction at the WS2 at .8501.

We had a strong reversal at .8519, just 18 pips from the WS2.

EUR/JPY: The WR2 is 103.89, which is also a cluster event. The problem with any upward movement is there is a strong push to the south. We could see the WS1 at 102.36 and even the WS2 at 101.85 get hit this week. Reactions at both those areas are worth taking note of. As a crosscheck (Seldom do I do this.), and even though the charts for the EUR/JPY are suggesting a drop to the WS2, it is doubtful we’ll get that low.

The crosscheck proved correct as the dip was only 103.06, and then the pair bolted to 105.67.

GBP/JPY: We need a strong move on the other side of 120.98, and then we head to 122.07 and then 123.32. If that does not happen, then we are headed to 115.06, and at least 118.78 this week.

We got the strong move on the other side of 120.98 and the peak was 122.57.

CAD/CHF

2011-12-03T10:09:00.000-05:00

This is a strange way to start off the weekend, but I was having a conversation concerning this pair, so I'm posting it now. It is no my MT radar:

The posted chart shows the potential of the drop along with my bias for the market. As a conservative trader, I would wait for a strong break of .8965, and then a correction back to that point, and then initiate the position from there. With a more aggressive stance, I would turn to my weeklies (Not done yet for this week.), and wait for my WR1 to get hit. The one thing that is for sure is that whatever the level will be there will be at least a bounce from that point, and would also have the potential for the reversal.
The reason this market is view as OB is that the candle is flying so high above the cloud (equilibrium), and so there has to be a gravitational pull back to it. When that move begins, then the daily, which has the stochs perfectly curled and strong OB, will makes its move to the top of its cloud at .8816. The daily cloud is very thin, as the bottom is .8777. If that is broken, then it heads to the next key support at .8637. A convincing break of that leads to cluster support on the weekly chart at .8079. The .8637 level is on my radar.

Crude Oil

2011-12-01T14:04:00.000-05:00

As this market made a predictable move to the top of the cloud, it has now reached a decision point. It is favored to see the top taken off, as we rise higher to circa 108.50.

As it appears, the whole UP that has taken 2 months looks correctional and we are in for another strong dip that will take us back down to 81.08. If we get a strong break of that point, then it puts the 60.00's back on the radar.

EUR/NZD

2011-12-01T00:11:00.001-05:00

This pair could still head a little further south as 1.7167 should contain. Minimum expectation to the upside is the 4-hour kijun at 1.7608, and possibly the bottom of the cloud at 1.7779. If we get that high, then it would be treated as a decision point.

EUR/AUD

2011-12-01T00:05:00.001-05:00

There is potential for a drop to 1.2980. That may not happen as we are due to reverse. The reversal is looking at the 4-hour kijun at 1.3407, and possibly the bottom of the cloud at 1.3480. For now, I'm treating that as a decision point.

NZD/USD

2011-11-30T23:59:00.001-05:00

This pair should be headed even higher today. It looks like it has a clear shot at the DR1 at .7871, and then the DR2 at .7938. Solid R will wait at the bottom of the daily cloud/ TL combo at .7956. The u-turn could be sharp.

Indian market S&R's--1211

2011-11-30T23:25:00.002-05:00

Rel Ind--M 938.66 867.15 824.08 737.92 694.85 -623.34
SBI--M 2157.50 1969.96 1856.98 1631.02 1518.04 -1330.50
Tata Steel-M 495.77 444.17 413.08 350.92 319.83 -268.23

Nifty monthly S&R's--1211

2011-11-30T13:07:00.003-05:00

Nifty--M 5593.81 5252.37 5046.69 4635.31 4429.63 -4088.19

Which currency moves what pair?

2011-11-30T12:11:00.002-05:00

In order to prove the point of what I'm about ready to show, I am going to use 3 currencies, which will be the Euro, GBP, and the yen, while be compared to the USD.
It is a fact that it does not matter what currencies you use, as it could just as well as be the CAD, CHF, NZD being compared to the NZD.

First, let's establish one fact, and this is for the ones that read this post that have not read my previous posts of mine regarding the mathematics of the markets. Again, we can choose any currency pairs because it is still pure mathematics:
GBP/USD*USD/JPY=GBP/JPY. If you don't believe it (I kind of hope you don't, then you will check it for yourself.), then check the current rate of the GBP/USD and the USD/JPY. Multiply them together, and see if it does not equal GBP/JPY.
Algebraic proof is we have USD in the denominator and numerator, so the cancel each other out, because anything over itself equals 1. We are left with GBP/JPY.

The next query is which currency moves which currency pair. There is a lot of FA conjecture along those lines, but anyone that knows 4xpipcounter, he could care less about FA's. They put him to sleep. He only wants to know facts. So, here they are.
The first thing we need to look at are the daily ranges for this year:
EUR/USD: 148
GBP/USD: 144
USD/JPY: 65
EUR/JPY: 146
GBP/JPY: 140
EUR/GBP: 69
The range is the average high/low spread for any day.

Next is the current rates that I used for this montage:
EUR/GBP: .8554
EUR/JPY: 104.52
GBP/JPY: 122.21

What does that mean?
For every .8554 pips the Euro moves, GBP will move 1 pip in order to stay in the same place. In other words, if the GBP moves 10,000 pips north, and the euro moves 8,554 pips north, then the rate for the EUR/GBP will still be .8554.
Here's an example. The current rate for the EUR/USD was 1.3448 and GBP was 1.5722 (Divide the EUR/USD rate by the GBP/USD rate and tell me what you get.). If the GBP/USD moves up to 1.6722, and the EUR/USD moves to 1.4303, then the EUR/GBP is still .8554. Notice the GBP would have risen 1,000 pips and the euro would have risen 855 pips.

Now we take the range factors. This is where we divide the ranges to decide how much faster once currency is moving than the other.
The EUR/GBP is 1.0278, which means the euro moves 1.0278 times as fast as the gbp, or 2.7% faster:
EUR/GBP:1.0278
EUR/JPY: 2.2461
GBP/JPY: 2.2154

Now we divide the current rate by the range factor in order to determine which currency has the greatest effect on the pair. In order to cut ot the chase for now, a number over 1 favors the primary currency and under 1 favors the secondary currency:
EUR/GBP: 1.2015
EUR/JPY: 2.1490
GBP/JPY: 1.8128

Those numbers tells us almost invariably, the EUR/JPY is moving in the same direction as the EUR/USD, but the euro against the GBP does not have quite the obvious effect, as the euro has against the yen.

This can be proven by pulling out the daily charts and comparing candle for candle the EUR/USD and EUR/JPY and see what few exceptions there would be in their respective candles moving the same direction. Yet, you will notice more exceptions by comparing the EUR/USD to the EUR/GBP.

It was just a few years ago when it was the yen that moved the GBP/JPY. There was so much stereotype in those days because most people thought the GBP that moved the pair. This is because the GBP/USD was always a faster moving pair than the USD/JPY. In recent years, the yen has gotten even slower, and the rate on the GBP/JPY has dropped significantly. What you had a few years ago was a lower range factor with a higher rate to divide by, which meant a significantly lower dividend that was less than zero, which meant the yen moved the GBP/JPY.

Forex Correlator II

2011-11-29T11:17:00.000-05:00

This is in response to an e-mail, but I think many more will benefit.
Refer back to the chart on the previous post.

Keep in mind this is the daily chart, so it is necessary to keep this in its perspective.
The aqua line at the bottom is the NZD. It is simply stating it is the most OS single currency on the daily. The yellow and lime lines on top are the JPY and USD. They are the single most OB currencies. The NZD is pointing north, and the JPY and USD are pointing south. As a cross reference. That would alert us to check the NZD/USD and the NZD/JPY on the daily chart. In the past few days, it confirms what we are looking at, and that is a strong move north for both pairs.

Those 2 pairs will still make nice trading opportunities, but the time to have taken advantage of them was when they were both in their extreme areas and starting to point in the opposite direction.

Once again, this indicator is similar to Complex Commons. I think this one is much better while giving a much more accurate reading.

Forex Correlator

2011-11-28T14:33:00.000-05:00

I have an indicator for everyone if you are interested.
First thanks to Hari for sending this to me.

This is similar to the Complex Commons for measuring OB/OS conditions of individual currencies, excpet IMO, it is much better. You can use the indicator to decide currency is the most OB and the one that is OB, then go to its cross's chart, analyse it, then initiate the trade.

This is the daily chart. The aqua line below is the NZD, and the 2 falling lines from above are the kiwi and USD. Therefore, look for the NZD/USD and the NZD/JPY to move north over coming days.

FTSE

2011-11-27T23:18:00.001-05:00

This pair is looking very similar to many of the markets these days-- momentum favors the weekly and monthly, and he daily is in extreme territory going the opposite direction. It means it is also due for a MT correction. Look for the WR2 at 5323 to get hit this week, if not headed higher than that.

Crude Oil

2011-11-27T23:17:00.003-05:00

The market started with a strong spike to my WR2 at 98.45. From that point it met up with ST cluster R. It might contain for the week. Regardless of how it unflds, this market is headed back to the weekly TK combo at 89.14.

Silver

2011-11-27T23:17:00.001-05:00

A strong move north to start the week has already hit the WR1 at 31.76, so a minor correction from that point is due before we get a move to the WR2 at 32.42. Any further move north should be contained at circa 32.65, and could bring a move back to 28.50. Once to that point, there could be some consolidation before another reversal.

S&R 500

2011-11-27T23:16:00.003-05:00

First of all, I have pricing data all over the place on this market, so it is impossible to present any S&R's, so I'm going to feel I've got one hand tied behind my back on this one.

The strong move that ended last week will continue this week. Price actin should break out of the daily cloud and hit the tenken at 1204.50, and then the kijun at 1222.25.

DJIA

2011-11-27T23:16:00.001-05:00

The weekly and monthly have some southerly punch to it, yet, the daily is already getting tired. Regardless, the daily is going to have its hands ful with any thought of a correction. Nevertheless, watch for the WS1 at 11041 and the WS2 at 10876, as there could be strong reactions at those points.

Gold

2011-11-27T23:15:00.003-05:00

This market should be in for a temporary respite of the DOWN, but containment should be 1728. If that is taken out convincingly, then an alternate view for the DOWN may be needed. MT, the market appears headed back to 1582. That is unless 1728 is ripped out.

US Index

2011-11-27T23:15:00.001-05:00

"Reversal" was the theme of my Weekly Forecast. The Index is no exception.
The WR1 at 80.31 is expected to be containment that will yield a reversal. This virtually puts the WS2 at 78.86. From that point to 78.76 is an S zone, and it could contain for the week.
MT, 77.16 will be containment, or the drop is going much lower

The Opinion Poll

2011-11-26T19:15:00.000-05:00

My opinion poll is finished and ended with a sense of irony.

Some problems got fixed (Long story short.), and I am back on at Traderji. I've actually been back for a solid week, but I wanted to make sure their site would not slow my computer down again.

This blog will keep moving, so continue to feel free to post comments and questions, or general chit chat amongst yourselves. Having said that, I am quite active at http://www.traderji.com/forex/48152-some-my-forecasts.html.

Traderji is, by far, the best forum I have ever participated in. The people are quality people and ethics are held as a high value there. You can also check my profile there to see other threads I posted in.

Weekly Review--112711

2011-11-26T19:06:00.002-05:00

EUR/USD: Watch for the WS1 at 1.3139 to contain this week, and bring on the correction that has been much talked about. The correction will take this pair to the WR2 at 1.3422.

USD/JPY: A correction should be gin the week, but any downside momentum should be limited to my WS2 at 77.11. Upside potential is looking strong all the time, as the pair has its eye riveted back on 78.11, and it could be hit this week.

GBP/USD: Look for the WS1 at 1.5332 to contain this week. This pair looks weaker than its cousin, the EUR/USD. Any correction should be contained at 1.5868 and take up to 2 weeks to finish.

USD/CHF: This pair is getting ominously close to a very strong reversal, and that is in spite of it cracking the weekly cloud. The monthly tenken is .9394, but the WR1 at .9354 could contain this week. If we get a strong break through circa .9216, then that will mark the beginning of a very strong correction.

EUR/CHF: I might be through with the talk of hitting the bottom of the weekly cloud at 1.2713. Don’t be surprised if the recent peak at 1.2439 is going to be it for awhile, as the picture is clearing up for this pair. Look for the WR1 at 1.2349, or the WR2 at 1.2395 to contain this week to bring on a strong move south. The WS2 at 1.2213 is well within range this week.

AUD/USD: The correction that is around the corner should be limited to 1.0070. As is the case with many pairs this week the continuing trend should be limited by a 1 and has its eyes on a 2. WS1 is .9611 and WR2 is .9899.

USD/CAD: The WR1 is 1.0543, but this pair may not get that high this week. The WS2 at 1.0329 represents a cluster event, and might contain this week.

NZD/USD: Downward momentum has waned, and this pair is OS, so it is ready to move north. The WS1 is .7336, but there is room for a slight spike through it, nevertheless, that level should contain. The WR2 at .7552 is well within view.

EUR/GBP: There is still heavy pressure pushing south on this pair. Watch for a reaction at the WS2 at .8501.

EUR/JPY: The WR2 is 103.89, which is also a cluster event. The problem with any upward movement is there is a strong push to the south. We could see the WS1 at 102.36 and even the WS2 at 101.85 get hit this week. Reactions at both those areas are worth taking note of. As a crosscheck (Seldom do I do this.), and even though the charts for the EUR/JPY are suggesting a drop to the WS2, it is doubtful we’ll get that low.

GBP/JPY: We need a strong move on the other side of 120.98, and then we head to 122.07 and then 123.32. If that does not happen, then we are headed to 115.06, and at least 118.78 this week.

Weekly S&R's--112711

2011-11-25T21:02:00.000-05:00

R3 R2 R1 S1 S2 S3
EUR/USD 1.3579 1.3422 1.3327 1.3139 1.3044 -1.2887
USD/JPY 78.75 78.28 77.99 77.43 77.14 -76.67
GBP/USD 1.5808 1.5639 1.5536 1.5332 1.5229 -1.5060
USD/CHF 0.9518 0.9418 0.9357 0.9235 0.9174 -0.9074
EUR/CHF 1.2470 1.2395 1.2349 1.2259 1.2213 -1.2138
AUD/USD 1.0059 0.9899 0.9803 0.9611 0.9515 -0.9355
USD/CAD 1.0733 1.0615 1.0543 1.0401 1.0329 -1.0211
NZD/USD 0.7599 0.7505 0.7448 0.7336 0.7279 -0.7185
EUR/GBP 0.8687 0.8633 0.8600 0.8534 0.8501 -0.8447
EUR/JPY 104.74 103.89 103.38 102.36 101.85 -101.00
GBP/JPY 122.11 121.14 120.55 119.37 118.78 -117.81

Weekly Review--112011

2011-11-25T20:27:00.001-05:00

EUR/USD: The downside objective has been fulfilled, but that still does not tell us it is over. The upside back to circa 1.3931 has not been. There is potential for a continued downside move towards to 1.3260. Anywhere between current level and 1.3260 should signal the move north towards 1.3931, and maybe beyond. Conceptually, and in the longer term, this pair should now be headed to 1.2130. The next strong leg north should be it, and then we head south to break whatever the dip is on this leg.
For this week, we could see the move to the WS2 at 1.3299, and even a spike to 1.3260. It is also possible to see a strong push from current level, and send this pair rocketing to the WR2 at 1.3725, and beyond. This is a tough call for the week, but the favorable route would be to start the week with a move to the WS1 at 1.3405, then see the bulls takes over for the rest of the week.

We dipped as low as 1.3211.

USD/JPY: The pair should start off the week with a mile move south towards the WS1—WS2 area at 76.67—76.44. Anything to the north should be limited to the WR2 at 77.36, which is a strong cluster event.

The dip was right in between my points at 76.56, and then the reversal took the pair to The reversal took out the cluster event with a strong 4-hour candle, as the peak was 77.81.

GBP/USD: MT, this pair is still on its way to the bottom of the weekly cloud at 1.5545, and then to 1.5236. The WS2 is 1.5556, so the bottom of the cloud could be hit this week. Any move north should be contained at the WR1 at 1.5895.

It’s still moving as this week’s dip was 1.5422. Northern lights were well contained as the peak was 1.5796.

USD/CHF: This pair is reentering an area that could yield a very strong reaction at the WR2 at .9325, if not the monthly tenken at .9399. Until we get the strong reversal, .9104 contains.

The pair was stopped dead in its tracks at my WR2 as the peak was .9329.

EUR/CHF: The bottom of the weekly cloud, currently at 1.2713 will still yield a strong reversal. It just seems like it is taking a long time to get there, because the pair is taking the local going east.

There was a bit of a shakeup this week as the dip was 1.2249, then quickly reverted to the peak at 1.2379.

AUD/USD: If the bottom of the daily cloud at .9938 does not contain price action, then the pair is headed to .9700. LT, it appears this pair is headed to .8332. This week it is likely that the WS1 at .9900. The move north will be contained at the WR1 at 1.0108, and possibly the WR2 at 1.0211.

This pair did make it to .9700 this week as the dip was .9663. The move north was contained by the WR1 as the peak was 1.0013.

USD/CAD: This pair has gone from what used to be a strong correction mode to being back in the strong move north. We will need a convincing break of 1.0241 before any sign of a reversal. That level is also a distance from the WS1 at 1.0207. The next strong S south is 1.0190. A strong cluster S is 1.0062.

We need got even the smallest of signs for the reversal as it moved north all week to the peak at 1.0522 that was established on Friday.

NZD/USD: This pair is in for some strong one-way moves. The bottom of the weekly cloud at .7340 is MT containment, while containment heading north is around .7960. As for this week, a correction of the current DOWN could be needed. Look for the WR1 at .7664 or the WR2 at .7766 to contain.

All that was needed for containment was the WR1 as the peak was .7575, and the dip hit .7369, just 29 pips away from MT containment.

EUR/GBP: The WR2 at .8604 is a major decision point for this pair. The bottom of the weekly cloud is still containing, but that does not mean it won’t give out, especially with increasing pressure coming from the monthly. If the bottom of the weekly gives out, then we are headed to .8167.

The WR2 did decide, which was some incredible whipsaw action, as the peak was .8658 and quickly reverted to .8544.

EUR/JPY: There could be some further downside to explore for this pair, but look for 102.32 to contain. What is really going on is that this pair is preparing for what is going to be a very strong leg that will go to sub-100, and even into the 80.00’s. Once we make it to circa 102.32, look for there to be an interim move north to the weekly kijun at 109.31 or the weekly bottom of the cloud at 114.37. This week the upside is probably limited to the WR2 at 105.75.

This week’s dip was 102.48, just 16 pips away from the MT reversal point.

GBP/JPY: There is now potential for a further drop to 119.35. For this week, watch for a reaction at the WR1 at 124.53. We could see a move in that direction to start the week.

This week’s dip was 119.37, just 2 pips from the “potential” target.

Nifty weeklies--112711

2011-11-25T20:00:00.000-05:00

Nifty 4952.95 4840.49 4772.75 4637.25 4569.51 -4457.05

USD/CHF

2011-11-22T11:57:00.001-05:00

The apex is located at .9187. One of two things will happen: 1. It contains in preparation for a sharp drop; 2. Price blows though it and we head higher.

If the apex is broken, then there is room for a move to .9297, and then it should contain. A strong drop still looms around the corner.

GBP/NZD II

2011-11-22T11:55:00.002-05:00

There will be at least a bounce from 2.1029, and of course, that could be the reversal, so it is worth taking a shot at for at least a ST short.

EUR/AUD

2011-11-22T00:20:00.000-05:00

Either this pair reverses between current level and 1.3843, or it moves to 1.3945. The first indication on the downside that the UP broke is a strong break of 1.3572

NZD/JPY

2011-11-22T00:16:00.001-05:00

There is going to be lots of R along the way, but nevertheless, I got 61.34 on the radar.

GBP/JPY

2011-11-22T00:12:00.000-05:00

This pair is OS on the daily and is nearing the bottom of the cloud. Anywhere between current level and the WS2 at 119.49 should contain. Watch for a strong break of circa 121.85, and then things might get consolidative once 122.35 has been hit. Afterward, the journey will continue to 123.34. It will be that level that will determine whether or not we go much higher, namely 131.27. The latter is subject to change.
It dawned on me. I did not check the chart yet, but that means the NZD/JPY will be in for a monster move, because I got the GBP/NZD going south.

S&P 500

2011-11-21T11:30:00.000-05:00

S&P 1277.37 1248.18 1230.59 1195.41 1177.82 -1148.63

This market is due for what should be a somewhat strong correction Look for the WS2 at 1177.82 or the top of the daily cloud at 1164.25 to contain. The correction should be contained at circa 1259, and then the DOWN will resume.

EUR/HUF

2011-11-21T10:53:00.001-05:00

This pair is still waiting on a convincing break of 304.15, and then it will get to 297.57 very quickly.

Silver

2011-11-21T10:46:00.001-05:00

Silver 36.44 34.55 33.41 31.13 29.99 -28.10

This is another strong move that was requested before the markets opened. The MS2--WS2 area at 30.18--29.99 will prove to be significant S, and contain the trip south for the week.

DJIA

2011-11-21T10:35:00.002-05:00

DJIA 12374.19 12113.31 11956.16 11641.84 11484.69 -11223.81

I got a request for this market before the opening of the week, but could not get to it until now. The strong move already made today I missed out on with regards to forecasting it. It was strongly obviated. The WS3 at 11223 could be hit this week, as the bottom of the daily cloud is on the radar at 11212.

Indian market S&R's--112011

2011-11-20T23:13:00.002-05:00

Rel Ind 918.05 867.82 837.56 777.04 746.78 -696.55
SBI 1817.71 1773.28 1746.52 1692.98 1666.22 -1621.79
Tata Steel 442.87 420.15 406.46 379.10 365.41 -342.69

Weekly Forecast--112011

2011-11-19T20:29:00.000-05:00

EUR/USD: The downside objective has been fulfilled, but that still does not tell us it is over. The upside back to circa 1.3931 has not been. There is potential for a continued downside move towards to 1.3260. Anywhere between current level and 1.3260 should signal the move north towards 1.3931, and maybe beyond. Conceptually, and in the longer term, this pair should now be headed to 1.2130. The next strong leg north should be it, and then we head south to break whatever the dip is on this leg.
For this week, we could see the move to the WS2 at 1.3299, and even a spike to 1.3260. It is also possible to see a strong push from current level, and send this pair rocketing to the WR2 at 1.3725, and beyond. This is a tough call for the week, but the favorable route would be to start the week with a move to the WS1 at 1.3405, then see the bulls takes over for the rest of the week.

USD/JPY: The pair should start off the week with a mile move south towards the WS1—WS2 area at 76.67—76.44. Anything to the north should be limited to the WR2 at 77.36, which is a strong cluster event.

GBP/USD: MT, this pair is still on its way to the bottom of the weekly cloud at 1.5545, and then to 1.5236. The WS2 is 1.5556, so the bottom of the cloud could be hit this week. Any move north should be contained at the WR1 at 1.5895.

USD/CHF: This pair is reentering an area that could yield a very strong reaction at the WR2 at .9325, if not the monthly tenken at .9399. Until we get the strong reversal, .9104 contains.

EUR/CHF: The bottom of the weekly cloud, currently at 1.2713 will still yield a strong reversal. It just seems like it is taking a long time to get there, because the pair is taking the local going east.

AUD/USD: If the bottom of the daily cloud at .9938 does not contain price action, then the pair is headed to .9700. LT, it appears this pair is headed to .8332. This week it is likely that the WS1 at .9900. The move north will be contained at the WR1 at 1.0108, and possibly the WR2 at 1.0211.

USD/CAD: This pair has gone from what used to be a strong correction mode to being back in the strong move north. We will need a convincing break of 1.0241 before any sign of a reversal. That level is also a distance from the WS1 at 1.0207. The next strong S south is 1.0190. A strong cluster S is 1.0062.

NZD/USD: This pair is in for some strong one-way moves. The bottom of the weekly cloud at .7340 is MT containment, while containment heading north is around .7960. As for this week, a correction of the current DOWN could be needed. Look for the WR1 at .7664 or the WR2 at .7766 to contain.

EUR/GBP: The WR2 at .8604 is a major decision point for this pair. The bottom of the weekly cloud is still containing, but that does not meet it won’t give out, especially with increasing pressure coming from the monthly. If the bottom of the weekly gives out, then we are headed to .8167

EUR/JPY: There could be some further downside to explore for this pair, but look for 102.32 to contain. What is really going on is that this pair is preparing for what is going to be a very strong leg that will go to sub-100, and even into the 80.00’s. Once we make it to circa 102.32, look for there to be an interim move north to the weekly kijun at 109.31 or the weekly bottom of the cloud at 114.37. This week the upside is probably limited to the WR2 at 105.75

GBP/JPY: There is now potential for a further drop to 119.35. For this week, watch for a reaction at the WR1 at 124,53. We could see a move in that direction to start the week.

Weekly S&R's--112011

2011-11-19T10:58:00.000-05:00

R3 R2 R1 S1 S2 S3
EUR/USD 1.3903 1.3725 1.3619 1.3405 1.3299 -1.3121
USD/JPY 77.74 77.36 77.13 76.67 76.44 -76.06
GBP/USD 1.6186 1.6004 1.5895 1.5675 1.5566 -1.5384
USD/CHF 0.9454 0.9326 0.9250 0.9096 0.9020 -0.8892
EUR/CHF 1.2509 1.2458 1.2427 1.2365 1.2334 -1.2283
AUD/USD 1.0384 1.0211 1.0108 0.9900 0.9797 -0.9624
USD/CAD 1.0495 1.0393 1.0331 1.0207 1.0145 -1.0043
NZD/USD 0.7935 0.7766 0.7664 0.7460 0.7358 -0.7189
EUR/GBP 0.8642 0.8604 0.8581 0.8535 0.8512 -0.8474
EUR/JPY 107.25 105.75 104.84 103.04 102.13 -100.63
GBP/JPY 124.85 123.29 122.35 120.47 119.53 -117.97

Weekly Review--111311

2011-11-19T10:43:00.000-05:00

Note: This is the first week of the year my Weekly Forecast totally missed it on most of the pairs. Usually, the case is if I miss it, it is because I am off by an S or R level, and the reversal is going to be that much more explosive. This week was a case of missing the turning point on most of the pairs. In essence, the turning point was predictable, but exactly where it was going to turn was not, and that is why the forecasts are off this week.

EUR/USD: This pair ended the week with a very bullish candle on the day chart. The week will start by giving some of that back with a move to the TK combo on the 4-hour at 1.3671. From there, the pair should be headed north the rest of the week, as the WR2 at 1.3958 should be hit. That will also line up rather nicely with the TL break I alluded to so much.
MT, this pair is headed even higher, as the dip from last week at the WS2 should mark the low for awhile as we watch this pair climb towards 1.4178. That circa area will mark either a very strong continuation that will mark a continuation of the uptrend towards 1.4637. The favored scenario is to get a strong reversal around 1.4178

The week started with the strong spike to 1.3809, and that was all she wrote. It headed to the dip at 1.3421, which fulfilled the DOWN TL break at 1.3433 we talked about so much

USD/JPY: This pair is back where it was before the strong move from Monday, 2 weeks ago. It should continue lower to the WS1 at 76.78 and maybe the WS2 at 76.46. This pair is also subject to some strong volatility.

This pair did continue lower and dipped in between the WS1 and WS2 at 76.56.

GBP/USD: The top of the daily cloud at 1.5944 should now contain the downside before it stages the remainder of the UP to circa 1.6218. It is possible it will be consummated this week.

It was consummated this week, but not in the fashion I thought, as the week began with the spike to 1.6091, and it went south the rest of the week to the dip at 1.5690.

USD/CHF: This pair is in a situation that if I am wrong I’m going to look really bad. There is upside potential to .9408 which would take the next 2 weeks to complete. It is doubtful that will happen. On the downside, if .8945 is broken, then that should signal we are back in the DOWN.

The pair continued north to the peak at .9251.

EUR/CHF: This pair remains a mess to b able to get accurate handle on. Ironically, one that jumped in at 1.0100 area are not saying that. Nevertheless, this pair is turning into a forecaster’s nightmare. Look for support at 1.2341. A break there and it could bring on a volatile consolidative mix. The MT outlook is clear. The pair is in for a strong reversal at 1.2889, and in a couple of weeks that figure will drop to 1.2713.

My “forecaster’s nightmare” turned out to be almost spot on. On Monday there was a spike to the dip for the week at 1.2327, and Friday’s dip was at exactly 1.2341. Because the S region was not broken, the pair continued in its consolidation, but it is still very tight.

AUD/USD: There is one level to keep in mind for this pair, and that is 1.0650. That is absolute containment that will provide an explosive reversal. This pair will not make it there this week.
For this week, it looks very sure this pair will start off in reverse as it heads to the WS1 at 1.0179. Afterward, it appears to be another bullish week for the pair as it heads north to 1.0478, and even allowing for a spike to the WR2 at 1.0491.

Instead, we made it to 1.0650, and it did not contain, as the dip was .9963.

USD/CAD: This pair is going to start the week in a partial correction of the downtrend, as it heads to my WR1 at 1.0153, which will be a minor cluster event that should be enough to contain price action on the upside. The thing to watch for is the reaction at the WS2 at .9997. If that is taken out convincingly, then it is the express route to .9737, but not all this week.

This pair stared with the spike to 1.0072, then it was north from there to the peak at 1.0300.

NZD/USD: This pair is ready for a correction within the UP it started to end last week. The correction should take it to .7808--.7774. The reversal will take it to .7997, and allowing for a spike to the WR2 at .8023. MT, watch for .8155. It’s that area that carries the potential for a strong reversal.

This pair started the week with a strong spike to .7924, and then it was due south from there, as the dip was .7552.

EUR/GBP: This pair is getting in a tight squeeze at the bottom of the weekly cloud. The WS1 at .8517 should contain any move to the south. The WR2 at .8619 is a cluster event and should contain. Just in case it does not, then it could be a very quick move to .8806 that would probably take until next week to complete.

The dip was exactly at the WS1 at .8517, and the peak was .8601, just 16 pips under the WR2.

EUR/JPY: This week’s dip, circa WS1 at 105.06, will probably be the final dip until this pair makes it to the cluster R at 109.31, and then the bottom of the weekly cloud at 114.37.

This pair turned very volatile this week, as it started with a strong spike to 106.69, then headed south to the dip at 103.39.

GBP/JPY: This week’s dip, circa WS1 or WS2 at 123.07 and 122.35 respectively, will probably be the final dip until this pair makes it to the weekly kijun at 125.97, and then the bottom of the weekly cloud at 131.20.

This pair started the week with a strong spike to 124.29, then it went south to the dip at 120.84.

This and that.

2011-11-19T08:49:00.002-05:00

There is some exciting going on related to business and with some help from the forex family.
I hope I'm not dreaming, but someone sent me some information about the computer and it was very helpful. To cut to the chase, I'm going to see how things go at Traderji again. I think the problem has been solved.

Yesterday, I received a new toy for me to have some fun with during these final 5-6 weeks of the year, which are going to be slow for me. Someone sent me a new indicator to experiment with. It looks really good, but I won't know until live market simulation. It's a new SD indicator, but this time it is not Standard Deviation, but Supply/Demand.

The WR should be ready about 1 1/2 hours from this post.

Gold

2011-11-18T17:39:00.000-05:00

Gold 1808.65 1769.80 1746.40 1699.60 1676.20 -1637.35

The 4-hour kijun at 1748.46 is probably going to contain the upside for next week, which matches rather nicely with the WR1 at 1746.40. From there, we should see this market continue its journey to the bottom of the daily cloud at circa 1664.73. Considering the WS2 is 1676.20, the former could be hit this week.