Weekly Review--010112

EUR/USD: This pair is having a rough time trying to find its way through the 4-hour cluster R event. For the time being, it is very predictable where the turning points south are going to be. MT, the daily kijun, currently at 1.3201, looks rock solid. For this week, WR1 at 1.3013 could contain the upside, but the WR2 at 1.3075 looks rock solid. The DOWN still looks like a freefall towards 1.2643, and rapidly decreasing.

The WR2 proved to be just that—“rock solid”, as the peak was exactly 1.3075. I knew the pair was going to be in a freefall, but I did not think it was going to fall this quick as the dip for the week was 1.2696.

USD/JPY: For the MT, this picture is finally clearing up. Quite a long time ago, I was talking about this pair heading to the low 70.00’s. That is still the case, and with the strong than usual move we have been seeing of late, this pair seems to indicate it finally got its bearings together. Just to wet your appetite, this year’s YS2 at 71.34 could be hit. Therefore if we get a return to 79.65, which also the YR1, your antennas should go up.
This week we should see a recovery of the strong drop that ended last week, as we see the pair move towards the WR2 at 77.56. It is possible to see a move a little higher.

The pair got turned around and moved towards the WR2, but as it turned out, the WR1 at 77.22 contained, as the peak was 77.32.

GBP/USD: This pair is now facing very strong R at the bottom of the 4-hour cloud at .5590. If the pair makes it through the cloud, then the top at 1.5658 figures to contain. In either event, it figures to be a sharp reversal back to the DOWN that could see the WS2 at 1.5348 being paid a visit this week.


The top of the cloud did contain, as the pair had a wick spike to 1.5669, and then the reversal came a little short of the WS2 at the dip was 1.5375.

USD/CHF: I figure this pair is still stuck in some tight consolidation. The top of the weekly cloud at .9473 was missed by 5 pips, and I’m not content in know the DOWN is ready to resume until it has been hit. What will be hit this week is the WS1 at .9346. What could be hit and is well within range is the WS2 at .9304. Other than that, it might pay to be looking north. If the WR2 at .9470 is hit, then all that is needed is a 3-pip move on the other side to hit the top of the weekly cloud.


The dip was exactly the WS2 at .9304, and then the reversal took the pair to beyond the WR2, as the pair hit the WR3 at .9539 and kept traveling to .9577.

EUR/CHF: The bottom of the 4-hour cloud is 1.2211. Combine that with the WR1 at 1.2217, and that should make for a nice confluence of containment for the week. The reversal should take the pair to the WS2 at 1.2103 or lower.
MT, the thing to remember about this pair is that it began a reversal but failed to hit the bottom of the weekly cloud. There has been no momentous thrust behind the move. This pair could still be looking at eventually needing a move to 1.2637 before we see any meaningful reversal.


The dip was 1.2135, 3 pips above the WS1. The pair stayed in a tight squeeze all week as the peak was 1.2197

AUD/USD: This pair still has .9537 on its radar and even much lower. If this pair finishes the week on top of 1.0233, then put 1.0498 on your MT radar before we get the reversal we are looking for. This week solid containment will be seen at 1.0143, which is the top of the 4-hout cloud, and the WS1 is 1.0146, so it is also a solid cluster. The continued move north should take the pair to 1.0333 without much of a problem.


The pair did continue north, and did hit 1.0333 without much of a problem, then continue to 1.0385. The pair had to come crashing down to finish the week at 1.0228, 5 pips under, so 1.0498 is not on the radar.

USD/CAD: Containment should be seen this week at the cluster R area of 1.0229. We could see a strong spike through that area to the WR1 at 1.0246. 1.0059 is on the radar, but may not be hit this week as the WS3 is 1.0064, and it is doubtful the pair will move that strong.

The doubts were justify, as the pair dipped to 1.0075, a whole 11 pips short of the WS3. It was a strong reversal, as the WR2 at 1.0285 was needed to contain, as it was the exact peak of the week.

NZD/USD: This pair is preparing for a big drop, but for now, is still enjoying the northern skies. We should see the 4-hour cloud broken into this week, and see the pair move to the other side to the bottom at a projected .7702. The WS1 is .7713, so that area figures to hold. The reversal will take the pair back up through the cloud and we will see it break out and rise to the WR2 at .7890.

The WR2 did contain as the peak was a wick spike through it at .7907. The dip was only a spike into the cloud at .7740.

EUR/GBP: For this week, there will be containment to the upside in the WR1-WR2 area from .8355to .8381. The WS1 at .8305 is virtually on the radar, and a drop to the WS2 at .8279 is even foreseeable.

The projected are for the peak was good enough as it was .8371, The dip at .8238 was 2 pips short of the WS3

EUR/JPY: Even though this pair is headed to the low 90.00’s, it is due for a huge MT reversal before it gets there. It may need to move into the high 97.00’s before we see the correction take place, and it does not look likely that will happen this week, as the WS1 at 98.86 figures to contain the downside, and the pair should approach the WR2 at 100.99 on the upside.


The WR1 at 100.28 contained the upside, as there was a move just 2 pips on the other side. The reversal took the pair to the dip at 97.87, so the high-97.00's were hit.

GBP/JPY: Any attempt to move higher will be contained by the WR1 at 120.32. We could see the WS2 at 117.84 be hit this week. That is the beginning of the S zone towards 117.64 which could yield a sizeable move north.

The containment area sufficed as the peak was 120.18. We did not quite make it to the S zone as the dip was contained exactly at the MS1 at 118.53.