GBP/USD

Last week, cable peaked at 1.6741, and has given up 500 points since. This should mark the beginning of the drop I promised in my earlier posts. 1.5443 is on the radar. 1.5272 should be the next stop beyond that. Afterwards, we should see even a further drop than that.

USD/CHF

A nice and predictable development happened with this pair today. I alluded to the reference points on March 7th with regards to my yearly S&R's. The pair made a move to a low of 1.0365, which is just 10 points above my 50% mark of the YP--YS1, and it also consisted of a 2-reference point drop from the peak at 1.1967. This year's distance between the reference points is 806. Multiply that by 2 and you get 1612. Subtract that from 1.1967, and it is 1.0355. All this implies that the correction could be over. It also would not be out of the question to see a futher drop to 1.0098. Regardless of the outcome, like many of the majors, berady for an explosive return to the LT trend, which in this case is UP.

EUR/USD

Things are happening about as scheduled for this pair. 6 months ago I said to look for 1.4892 to be containment for this pair. This is increasingly looking like the case. There is also strong R at 1,5433. The monthly chart is not ready, yet, but when the move back in the DOWN will be BIG. The tenken on the monthly is comfortably under the kijun. The stochastics is currently at 92/67. Add that reading to what is seen on the tenken--kijun combo, and you have the makings for something really big that is about to happen on the monthly.
Like its cousin, cable, be ready for this one!

GBP/USD

I was wrong as far as the exact turning point of cable is concerned. Still, the pair is getting ready for an explosive reversal. The weekly chart remains as the dead giveaway. Top of the cloud R is currently at 1.6826 with a slight rise in the future to 1.6949. The more favorable giveaway is that the tenken is encamped at the bottom of the cloud and on a divergent path from the kijun. The momentum is spiralling downward with sharp divergence on the stochastics. Be ready!

GBP/USD

Tommorrow, I'm looking for a bear day for this pair. This pair is at a point on the daily that has to mark containment for it or it will be on its way to 1.6887 or beyond. The weekly chart is also indicating that it is ready for a key reversal as momentum is still on the sdie of the bears.

NZD/JPY

Look for 70.95 to be containment for this pair before a strong move back in the DOWN.

CAD/JPY

Over the next few days, 85.76 should be containment. MT, the correction should not be finished. Ideally, a move to 96.51, or even 98.30 would make a real nice reversal back into the LT trend. I'll even say that 96.51 is on the radar. If it hits 98.30, don't think of staying long.

CHF/JPY

This pair gives me fits, which is answers partly why it's been about 3 years since I lasted traded it. The recent high that was created at 91.50 could be the end of the retracement. There is substantial R in that area. OTOH, it seems premature to say that. There is also no strong momentum on any of the time frames that would imply that we are ready for a rturn to the DOWN. The picture would clear up if that R area is taken out. Sights could clearly be set on 93.48, and then 95.22.
Will I trade it? Only if you see a bear with wings, and Tucker says he does not like me at the same time.

AUD/JPY

Provided we did not get a false break out of the weekly cloud, then this pair is headed higher. The top of the cloud is 79.68, but as soon as it cleared the cloud, it met up with strong R at 81.31. It seems favorable this pair is headed towards 87.54 before we see a monster reversal. Like many of the pairs, this is only a MT correction in a LT trend.
Also, if it clears 81.31,comfortably, then there is not a whole lot preventing this pair from making it the rest of the way towards the stated target. Once we're back in the DOWN 68.77 will easily be back on the radar, and it should challenge the low at 54.91

Forex mathematics

I guess we can go back to high school algebra for a little lesson on forex mathematics. All you have to do is apply the numbers if you don't think this is real, but it is just algebraic law. You can take a combination of events and make it equal the whole or one currency pair or even a combination. I'll even get into how this can be helpful in applying this to trading.
Here's one example:
EUR/AUD x GBP/EUR x AUD/USD = GBP/USD. Take the former 3 pairs, multiply them together, and they will equal the current rate on the GBP/USD. Also, the EUR/GBP is inverted, so you need to multiply the reciporcal of that pair.
Here's another:
EUR/CHF x AUD/NZD x CHF/GBP x NZD/USD = EUR/GBP x AUD/USD = EUR/USD x AUD/GBP.
Algebraically, it's simple. Using the former example as this example. The EUR's and the AUD's correspond one each in the numerator and the denominator. Therefore, they equal 1 and cancel each other out, and you are left with the GBP/USD.
This can be helpful in analyzing a trade. The cliche (IT is only a cliche, because everything in forex is interrelated.) says do not put all your eggs in one basket. As per my forecast, I have a good handle on the fact the GBP/USD is headed further DOWN, at least MT. Let's say I do not want to place just one position on the GBP/USD, but I want to spread it around. Well, if I am counting on it to go DOWN, that means the combination of the EUR/AUD, GBP/EUR, and the AUD/USD is also going DOWN, by virtue of them being equal. Therefore, I would short the EUR/AUD and the AUD/USD and go long (It's the reciporcal.) the EUR/GBP.
There are some advantages here. If I'm wrong concerning the GBP/USD, then my losses are not going to be as great, because I have it spread with 3 different pairs. One of those is bound to be a winner, while 2 would lose. If the GBP/USD is a loser, and all 3 of those pairs lose, then they are all small losers.
Conversely, if cable wins, then the 3 mentioned would be 3 small winners or 2 semi-big winners and one small loser.

GBP/AUD note

As it turned out, the pair did bounce at exactly 1.9410, and then climbed to 1.9478, and then met with strong R on the hourly chart, then splashed down for another ST leg DOWN. I did say if the 1.9410 S area doen not hold then it will get bumpy to the 1.9735 MT target area. Not only does it look bumpy, but more consolidation should prevail before anything of a corrective nature takes place. Do look for the pair to make a run to 1.9318, and possibly 1.9340 to start the week. Those points are on the ST radar. OTT, this pair is wait-and-see.
I said I am getting away from my ST projections. But then, I have no steadfast rules, either. That view on the ST on the GBP/AUD correlates perfectly with the AUD/USD. It should make a move DOWN to start the week to .8465. The obviation is not there quite as much as the view on the GBP/AUD. If I were to trade the aussie, I'd be ready to get out with some quick pips. Overall, it seems poised to make another move UP for the week. BTW, that is not a distraction from the LT view. This is still a MT correction of the LT DOWN. It is getting ready for the BIG move DOWN that will imminently happen in the near future.

Carry trades + interest

The pairs that pay interest on carry trades is anything long on the AUD or NZD (not against each other), and the GBP/JPY and the GBP/CHF in going long on those repsective repairs.
As far as the aussie and kiwi are concerned, you would go long if they are listed first, or go short if they are listed last. Another words, go long on the AUD/USD or the NZD/JPY or go short the GBP/NZD or the EUR/AUD. Those are just examples. It applies to every pair on the majors.

EUR/AUD

As long as it was not a false break into the monthly cloud, then we have 1.6430 on the radar. It could be at that point. All though it is not confirmed yet, it could be we have a sharp reversal at that point. The DOWN has been huge for this pair. There is going to be a lot of R on its way back UP. If 1.6430 does not hold up, this DOWN could get ugly, as we could head back to 1.5474. Keep in mind. That view has come from the monthly chart, so more concessions will be needed. I.e--In a month's time, it could break to 1.6200, and it not even be a false break. If it ends the month at that point, that is where the trouble begins.
At least at this point, I maintain the likely scenario is that the monthly chart will act as containment, and several weeks from now, we will begin a new UP for the pair.

GBP/USD

It is very iteresting watchnig this pair. I already gave my analysis concerning it in a previous post, but this is what is going on. Momentum on the daily suggests that it is going to take off heading UP. The problem is on the daily chart, it is running into R in the 1.6387--1.6404 area which is where the kijun and the top of the cloud is at. The other reason it i having trouble breaking through that point is because of the overriding implications on the weekly chart. Strong momentum on the weekly suggests a sharp break to the downside because of strong bearish divergence and the fact it bounced perfectly off the top of the cloud at the recent peak at 1.7042. This is why it is favorable the previous mentioned circa area should remain as containment, and even more so, 1.5358 is clearly on the radar. Another thing is that when it does break to the downside, it should get to 1.5934 support in a hurry. Once that is broken, then it should be off to the target in a quick hurry.

USD/CHF

This pair is sideways to very bearish. It seems poised to challenge .9411, but it will not get that low. Once that last run down the hill is complete, then it will be ready for a LT reversal that will take it back above the monthly cloud, which is currently 1.1500. It has not been baove the monthly cloud since June 2002. Even though it reached new lows at .9411, the pair was not ready to make its LT reversal, because the monthly chart lacked the conviction or the poise, which meant not enough momentum to carry it all the way through. Give it several weeks, but then it will be ready to go UP.
Even though I have not begun the decade's S&R's yet, I will go on a limb right now and say this pair is going to hit the decade's R2, which is going to be circa 1.5706. Don't take that exact number to the bank. I still have to do the exact numbers for it, and don't forget, that is a projection for the decade.

EUR/CHF

The weekly kijun at 1.5011 will act as support, but once that is broken, it could be a furious drop for this pair. Once that happens, it will be safely encmped under both the weekly and daily clouds along with both the kijun and tenken. The monthly is already bearish. 1.5192 should act as resistance during the interim period.

Comment concerning GBP/AUD

As mentioned in the previous post concerning the ST outlook, the pair was supposed to drop to 1.9410. It actually hit 1.9411. On the way back up, the pair may have a hard time around 1.9505Once it gets around that, it should be smooth sailing towards 1.9735.

CHF/JPY

Anyday it is going to happen. It will be a strong move DOWN that will see the 84.00 level challenged.

EUR/JPY

Ideally, I'd like to see this pair spike up to 146.67, then it will be an excellent short entry. OTT, there is no definite ascertainment for this pair.

AUD/NZD

This pair has only been undergoing a minor recovery of late. It has currently been camping at R which is the Daily kijun and weekly tenken at 1.2413. It is possible to see a move to the weekly kijun at 1.2477. If price makes it past that point, then look for the bottom of the daily kumo at 1.2537. That is the circa area for a potential explosive reversal.

USD/JPY and August

The USD/JPY was true to form last month. In 11 of the last 13 Augusts, the pair had a loosing month. The exceptions are in '06 and '08. In '08, it was a virtual breakeven month for it.

GBP/AUD

This pair could be getting ready for a MT correction, but probably will not be ready this week. For this week, 1.9620 and 1.9735 will serve as formiddable resistances. By next week, it cold be ready for a climb towards 2.0094. A strong finish near those 2 R's would be needed to confirn this view.
Here's something shorter term. Look for a move to 1.9410. That would also need to be containment or the road could get bumpy towards at least the initial target.

Another GBP/NZD comment

My initial projection of 2.4047 was hit on the GBP/NZD shortly before the London open. The 2nd one at 2.3964 was not. MT, this is taking on the appearance as a very strong move UP towards my initial projection of 2.4557. For now, it is viewed as only a MT correction and not a LT reversal.

EUR/NZD

Has the potential to keep dropping to 1.8778. It will be that circa area that huge reversal should ensue. In the mean time, initial ressitance is at 2.1258, which got challenged today. It could also hit 2.1635 before the DOWN continues.

GBP/CHF

Over the next several days an R will envelop around 1.7619. There has been solid support on the weekly chart at 1.6908. It's implied that eventually that will get taken out, and we should see the pair spiraling downward for one last leg on the LT DOWN. The low at 1.5115 should be challenged.

NZD/USD

Kiwi is very similar to its cousin, the aussie. .5908 should be on the radar, and should even challenge, if not break the previous low point at .4890.

AUD/USD

Speaking of the aussie, there are some strong obviations. Momentum has given out on the daily. The weekly is howing about the same, except there are some supports it will deal with. It is a matter of time when the candle gets pushed into the monthly cloud. When that happens, another explosive MT drop is going to happen. It's still a little premature, but .7331 appears it will be on the radar with potential to go much lower. This can definitely be viewed as a full correction of the drop that began when it peaked at .9849.

Nearing year's and decade's end

I may have been away for awhile, but I have gotten reminders for my decade's S&R's. We are nearing the end of the year and the decade. They will be ready and also available via e-mail for all requests.
I have numerous examples of the interactions during this past decade, but seeing I got the GBP/NZD chart up, I'll harp on it again. In Oct. 2000, it hit the circa area of the R1 when it peaked at 3.7221. In Sept '01 it tried to challenge it, but failed at 3.6938. Ever since then, it has been dropping. In Dec '05 it hit the S1 at the low of 2.4150, then had a bounce to 3.0482. That was not a strong bounce for this pair, but it was against the overall LT trend, and we are talking about the decade's bounce. That level is bounced back to is the proximity of 50% of the decade's S1 and the pivot at 3.0927.
Okay, one more example, as this was verified in our chat room. I often mentioned the Decade's R2 (circa .8600) that the aussie was approaching in July '07. We did get an 1100-point bounce, but it was not strong enough. It got back in the trend and continued to the proximity of the 38% level of the measuring points. The peak was .9849 which is the circa area of that point. Just look at the monthly chart to see what happened after that. It dropped all the way to .6005 in 4 months. Yes, those chat room days were a lot of fun.

Comment on GBP/NZD

Just a quick note for the new people, and in lieu of my post on "Comment on trades". This is just a quick example for some quick monitorization of my forecasts. I did give a real quick term projection on the GBP/NZD that should be fulfilled over the next 24 hours. In spite of today's quick runup that took the pair to a peak of 2.4292, I mentioned the imminency of the reversal that would take the pair back to 2.4047 and then 2.3964. The drop has already made it to 2.4092. Watch the pair as it drops the rest of the way over the next 24 hours.
Also, my terminology is a little different. I gave what I call a road map for the pair. Once this ST reversal has been complete, I mentioned to watch it head to 2.4557 and then 2.4779. This would be a more MT tenure.

Comment on trades

My forecasts are time-tested and can be verified by tracing my forecasts with the time they were published in lieu of the current charts during that time of the posting.
Unlike the time I was doing a larger bulk of posts when many of my posts pertained to a ST or MT view, they have shifted to a more MT--LT view. I still ascertain the fact they are very accurate, but instant gratification on the posts will not be the order of the day. In order for my forecats to be fully realized it will take days, weeks, and even sometimes months for the final result to happen. In viewing and monitoring my posts, it wold be necessary to use personal interpretative skills, as well as a mandate for deciphering proper entries and exits on any applicable trades.
I sill have a lot of fun in doing this, so enjoy them, follow them and time test them for yourself, as well as backtest any of my forecasts from teh past.
Inquiries and comments are always welcomed.

AUD/CHF

This is subject to change daily, but support is now .8742, which is the top of the daily cloud. The pair has been on a maniacal run up on the daily chart since March 8th. It is due to give out, so I'm not saying the current support is containment. There is initial evidence on the weekly chart that momentum is giving out, and it has bumped into the bottom of the monthly cloud. What could happen is that the UP could take some MT respite. The monthly cloud has a sharp increase, which means over the next several months there will be room for the pair to move while still staying under the cloud. My thinking is that, for the time being, the loss of momentum on the weekly will play out before any momentous new heights will be played out.
Another thing is the pair, for all its bullish potential on the daily, it has shown it has not gottne too comfortable above the tenken. The kijun has merged with the tenken, while the candle is getting comfortable under both. This is just another warning sign to look out for.
Keep in mind, if this view is correct, then new R's will be created which will means it's going to be a thorny path for its return.
The irony is that after all is said and done, the monthly is still showing the bears are still turned loose, while it still rests under the cloud.

GBP/NZD

ST, 2.4047 and 2.3964 is clearly on the radar. Over the next several days, the reversal should take the pair to 2.4557, and most likely, 2.4779.

USD/CAD

The loonie should be ready to make at least a small move UP. There is so much R it has met up with which is why it has gone sideways for a long time. Even though, R prevails, the cloud is getting thinner all the time on the daily chart, which is serving as an enticement. There will be firther R at 1.1438. Longer term, it does not appear that the recent peak at 1.3063 is going to be it, even though it is not clearly on the radar. Other than the initial prognosis, it is safe wo take the wait-and-see approach for what will transpire later.

EUR/CAD

This pair has been highly predictable over the last 18 months. The last recent rise, I said it would peak around circa 1.6936, and it peaked at 1.6970. The explosive run back down the hill was also predictable. The pair met with strong support on the monthly chart at 1.5232, then bounced again. The monthly chart suggests that another rise is predictable. The peak set 9 months ago at 1.7507 is in jeopardy, but not before meeting up with resistance at 1.5828, and then in the 1.6316--1.6384 area.

EUR/GBP

A few months ago, my view for this pair was that we would see a drop to .8192, then it would reach a decision point. So far, the low has been .8399 and with cable looking increasingly weaker all the time. I will maintain my same view for this pair unless we would get a break back above .9020. For the interim period, .8632 is looking like containment. If we do get a strong break of that area and then .8550, then the original view is back on the radar