R3 R2 R1 S1 S2 S3
EUR/USD 1.3359 1.3273 1.3222 1.3118 1.3067 1.2981
USD/JPY 85.43 84.51 83.96 82.86 82.31 81.39
GBP/USD 1.6100 1.5982 1.5910 1.5768 1.5696 1.5578
USD/CHF 0.9343 0.9256 0.9203 0.9097 0.9044 0.8957
AUD/USD 1.0742 1.0671 1.0628 1.0542 1.0499 1.0428
USD/CAD 1.0015 0.9969 0.9941 0.9885 0.9857 0.9811
NZD/USD 0.8440 0.8349 0.8294 0.8184 0.8129 0.8038
EUR/GBP 0.8441 0.8382 0.8347 0.8275 0.8240 0.8181
EUR/JPY 112.37 111.23 110.54 109.16 108.47 107.33
GBP/JPY 136.48 134.49 133.29 130.89 129.69 127.70
Friday, March 16, 2012
Weekly Forecast--031112
EUR/USD: With the strong finish last week, it has put the bottom of the daily cloud at 1.3007 back on the radar. The pair also needs to be aware of any spike past the bottom A simple touch of 1.2968, then the pair is on its way to challenge the recent swing low at 1.2623. If the move is as impulsive as it looks then this week’s recovery is limited to the WR1/MS1 combo at 1.3173-1.3183.
We did not have to worry about the latter 2 levels, as the dip was 1.3003, 4 pips under the original projection. The move must have been as impulsive as it looks because the peak was 1.3190, and the weekend at 1.3170.
USD/JPY: The move north will continue. The monthly kijun at 85.26 should still be hit. For the time being there is room for a correction. That could happen this week. If it does, then some downside targets will be the 4-hour tenken at 81.97, the kijun at 81.60, the daily tenken at 81.32, and the WS2 at 81.30. If the trip south is finished by Thursday, then it should still make it to the WR1 at 83.03.
The trip south was finished on Tuesday at 81.95, so there was plenty of time to move north as the peak was 83.93.
GBP/USD: The strong move that ended last week will continue this week. Any corrective measures should be contained at the WR1 at 1.5724. Once it is done with the fuel stop, it is headed to that WS1 at 1.4604, and then the WS2 at 1.5544. The MS3 is 1.5561, so it is a warning of possibly a move east the rest of the month. If this thing turns into a freight train, then we could be in the 1.5400’s very quickly. The MT target is the high 1.5200’s.
That was an obvious typo on the WS1, as it should have been 1.5604. The dip was 1.5601. To end the week we had an hourly candle bridge the WR1 and WR2, and then price action sill continued to the peak at 5858.
USD/CHF: With last week’s sharp move north that ended the week at the current level, it seems to indicate the move south is finished. It is on its way to challenge a very thin bottom of the daily cloud at .9300. Even the slightest spike on the other side suggests we are headed to challenge the recent peak at .9594. This week the .9300 mark could be hit. The WR2 is .9256, but if there is not much of a correction to start the week, then it should be broken on our way to the top.
The pair took until Thursday to hit the top of the cloud which was, by then. .9332, and that was the peak. The week start with the pair dipping to .9139.
AUD/USD: The move to challenge 1.1074 may be over. This week if the WS1 at 1.0507 is touched, it will have the bottom of the daily cloud at 1.0352 on the radar. A strong decision point that is very strong MT support. If it gets hit, expect a bounce. If that level is broken, then we head to sub-parity.
Thursday was the dip at 1.0442 and Friday was the peak at 1.0597 in a strange, volatile week.
USD/CAD: To start the week, we should be headed to the top of the 4-hour cloud/ WR1 combo .9945. There has been some MT stalling and with the overall USD bullish outlook, there is some doubt whether this pair is going to continue its journey to .9707. If the former R area holds, then we will hit the WS2 at .9816. If the R does not hold, then we are in for another explosive volatile mix as we head to the daily tenken at 1.0080.
The pair went north to start, and expected the WR1 contained as the peak was .9947. Basically, it was eastward the rest of the week as the dip was .9846.
NZD/USD: Make no mistake, this pair is heading deeper south. The top of the daily cloud will be broken, and we head to the bottom at .7930, and maybe lower. This week does not appear there is much room for a correction. The WR1 at .8264 could be hit. The trip south will take us to the WS2 at .8092 and lower.
The “and lower” was hit as the dip was .8060. The peak was .8257, 7 pips short of the WR1.
EUR/GBP: This pair is extremely indecisive right now. If it is going to hit the bottom of the monthly cloud at .8167, it’s going to have to be quick. If many more weeks are in the offing, then it will form a strong eastward base, and then when the bottom of the base is broken, it’s going to hard break of the bottom that it will send it on the express right through the bottom of the cloud. I don’t see any momentum strong enough to keep moving northward. For this week, it is extremely favorable to see the pair head east in the range of the WS2 and WR2 at .8324 and .8414, respectively.
The eastbound machine played out, even though it was a volatile eastward move. The peak was .8422 and the dip was .8292.
EUR/JPY: This pair is getting ready to shove it in high gear again. For now, it is still in the middle of all the action. For this week, there are two levels to look for. The recent swing high and swing low on the 4-hour at 108.64 and 107.68, respectively. A break of either will set the tone for the rest of the week. Across check of what the EUR/USD and USD/JPY looks seems to indicate that heading south is the favored scenario for this pair this week.
The favorable scenario did not play out as the peak was 109.97 which was hit in the last 5 minutes of the week. The thing that raised my eyebrows is the dip was 107.50.
GBP/JPY: Like many pairs, this pair has also been enduring some strong volatility. It is very close to the previous peak at 130.09, which means there would be a strong breakaway north. With the strong close from last week, it would indicate it will just keep going. Well…. I don’t think it is going to happen, which also puts the WR1 at 130.07 in serious doubt. Simply put the volatile move made the 4-hour the dominant TF, and just as strong of a reversal should be in store. I am favoring a 1-2-3 on the daily, which also is taking on the form of a bearish gartley. This means the daily kijun at 125.17 would be hit with ease, and then the weekly tenken at 123.68 is well within range.
The week started off correcting as expected to the dip at 128.16. From there, it was anything but expected as the WR1 at 131.07 (another typo—“130.07”) was easily broken, as the pair peaked at 132.42.
We did not have to worry about the latter 2 levels, as the dip was 1.3003, 4 pips under the original projection. The move must have been as impulsive as it looks because the peak was 1.3190, and the weekend at 1.3170.
USD/JPY: The move north will continue. The monthly kijun at 85.26 should still be hit. For the time being there is room for a correction. That could happen this week. If it does, then some downside targets will be the 4-hour tenken at 81.97, the kijun at 81.60, the daily tenken at 81.32, and the WS2 at 81.30. If the trip south is finished by Thursday, then it should still make it to the WR1 at 83.03.
The trip south was finished on Tuesday at 81.95, so there was plenty of time to move north as the peak was 83.93.
GBP/USD: The strong move that ended last week will continue this week. Any corrective measures should be contained at the WR1 at 1.5724. Once it is done with the fuel stop, it is headed to that WS1 at 1.4604, and then the WS2 at 1.5544. The MS3 is 1.5561, so it is a warning of possibly a move east the rest of the month. If this thing turns into a freight train, then we could be in the 1.5400’s very quickly. The MT target is the high 1.5200’s.
That was an obvious typo on the WS1, as it should have been 1.5604. The dip was 1.5601. To end the week we had an hourly candle bridge the WR1 and WR2, and then price action sill continued to the peak at 5858.
USD/CHF: With last week’s sharp move north that ended the week at the current level, it seems to indicate the move south is finished. It is on its way to challenge a very thin bottom of the daily cloud at .9300. Even the slightest spike on the other side suggests we are headed to challenge the recent peak at .9594. This week the .9300 mark could be hit. The WR2 is .9256, but if there is not much of a correction to start the week, then it should be broken on our way to the top.
The pair took until Thursday to hit the top of the cloud which was, by then. .9332, and that was the peak. The week start with the pair dipping to .9139.
AUD/USD: The move to challenge 1.1074 may be over. This week if the WS1 at 1.0507 is touched, it will have the bottom of the daily cloud at 1.0352 on the radar. A strong decision point that is very strong MT support. If it gets hit, expect a bounce. If that level is broken, then we head to sub-parity.
Thursday was the dip at 1.0442 and Friday was the peak at 1.0597 in a strange, volatile week.
USD/CAD: To start the week, we should be headed to the top of the 4-hour cloud/ WR1 combo .9945. There has been some MT stalling and with the overall USD bullish outlook, there is some doubt whether this pair is going to continue its journey to .9707. If the former R area holds, then we will hit the WS2 at .9816. If the R does not hold, then we are in for another explosive volatile mix as we head to the daily tenken at 1.0080.
The pair went north to start, and expected the WR1 contained as the peak was .9947. Basically, it was eastward the rest of the week as the dip was .9846.
NZD/USD: Make no mistake, this pair is heading deeper south. The top of the daily cloud will be broken, and we head to the bottom at .7930, and maybe lower. This week does not appear there is much room for a correction. The WR1 at .8264 could be hit. The trip south will take us to the WS2 at .8092 and lower.
The “and lower” was hit as the dip was .8060. The peak was .8257, 7 pips short of the WR1.
EUR/GBP: This pair is extremely indecisive right now. If it is going to hit the bottom of the monthly cloud at .8167, it’s going to have to be quick. If many more weeks are in the offing, then it will form a strong eastward base, and then when the bottom of the base is broken, it’s going to hard break of the bottom that it will send it on the express right through the bottom of the cloud. I don’t see any momentum strong enough to keep moving northward. For this week, it is extremely favorable to see the pair head east in the range of the WS2 and WR2 at .8324 and .8414, respectively.
The eastbound machine played out, even though it was a volatile eastward move. The peak was .8422 and the dip was .8292.
EUR/JPY: This pair is getting ready to shove it in high gear again. For now, it is still in the middle of all the action. For this week, there are two levels to look for. The recent swing high and swing low on the 4-hour at 108.64 and 107.68, respectively. A break of either will set the tone for the rest of the week. Across check of what the EUR/USD and USD/JPY looks seems to indicate that heading south is the favored scenario for this pair this week.
The favorable scenario did not play out as the peak was 109.97 which was hit in the last 5 minutes of the week. The thing that raised my eyebrows is the dip was 107.50.
GBP/JPY: Like many pairs, this pair has also been enduring some strong volatility. It is very close to the previous peak at 130.09, which means there would be a strong breakaway north. With the strong close from last week, it would indicate it will just keep going. Well…. I don’t think it is going to happen, which also puts the WR1 at 130.07 in serious doubt. Simply put the volatile move made the 4-hour the dominant TF, and just as strong of a reversal should be in store. I am favoring a 1-2-3 on the daily, which also is taking on the form of a bearish gartley. This means the daily kijun at 125.17 would be hit with ease, and then the weekly tenken at 123.68 is well within range.
The week started off correcting as expected to the dip at 128.16. From there, it was anything but expected as the WR1 at 131.07 (another typo—“130.07”) was easily broken, as the pair peaked at 132.42.
Easy Trade
I got a brand new forum for everyone to take a look at.
This is the link to my thread, which up to this point, is the only thread in the forum. I look forward to talking to everyone there.
http://easytrade.lefora.com/2012/03/16/some-of-my-forecasts/
This is the link to my thread, which up to this point, is the only thread in the forum. I look forward to talking to everyone there.
http://easytrade.lefora.com/2012/03/16/some-of-my-forecasts/
Nifty
Nothing has changed concerning this market. It is headed higher. It ran into R at the top of the 4-hour cloud. After a consolidative period, look for it to break out of the cloud, then head to the MR1 at 5556, and then this weeks WR3 at 5598.
In the longer term, it is still expected to see this market reach for the 6000's.
In the longer term, it is still expected to see this market reach for the 6000's.
Thursday, March 15, 2012
Price action II
We talked a lot about 1-2-3's at Traderji. They are actually a part of price action. You are looking to enter at a swing point. With the first chart I showed, there was actually 1-2-3's being formed all they way throughout the trend.
This 1-2-3 that you see happening is a little more significant. If the 2 is broken before a higher high is made (In other words the peak, which is the 1 point is broken.), then we are going to have a much more powerful move. This 1-2-3 is being formed at the end of a trend. There was a series of them in the UP. Now it is signaling a reversal back to the DOWN. An ideal short entry is a couple pips below the dip (the 2 point. You will notice a very strong move from that point.
The other thing that is so nice about this 1-2-3 is the symmetry. Better symmetry makes for a stronger and more predictable move. There was about as many candles that went south as went back north. With the peak not being broken, it shows the loss of momentum, and price will collapse.
This 1-2-3 that you see happening is a little more significant. If the 2 is broken before a higher high is made (In other words the peak, which is the 1 point is broken.), then we are going to have a much more powerful move. This 1-2-3 is being formed at the end of a trend. There was a series of them in the UP. Now it is signaling a reversal back to the DOWN. An ideal short entry is a couple pips below the dip (the 2 point. You will notice a very strong move from that point.
The other thing that is so nice about this 1-2-3 is the symmetry. Better symmetry makes for a stronger and more predictable move. There was about as many candles that went south as went back north. With the peak not being broken, it shows the loss of momentum, and price will collapse.
EUR/JPY
As per request:
This pair has not performed quite as thought this week, even though it appears it has begun its southbound move. Momentum has given out on the daily, and it appears it is ready to head south for its correction. The first level to look for on the way south is the 4-hour kijun at 108.56. That level being broken may be all the indication we need. The daily tenken is 107.66, and the kijun is 105.97. Both will be formidable, and they should be used as decision points. If the kijun is taken out, then the weekly kijun is next at 104.30, and hen the tenken at 103.48.
Also, refer back to this chart where it says 1-2-3 for my next post.
This pair has not performed quite as thought this week, even though it appears it has begun its southbound move. Momentum has given out on the daily, and it appears it is ready to head south for its correction. The first level to look for on the way south is the 4-hour kijun at 108.56. That level being broken may be all the indication we need. The daily tenken is 107.66, and the kijun is 105.97. Both will be formidable, and they should be used as decision points. If the kijun is taken out, then the weekly kijun is next at 104.30, and hen the tenken at 103.48.
Also, refer back to this chart where it says 1-2-3 for my next post.
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
Price Action--I
This is my live account and the pair is the EUR/JPY.
The white horizontal lines are the R's.
The blacks are the S's.
Notice they are all drawn at swing highs and swing lows.
As soon as a swing point is penetrated, that is your entry going in the same direction. In this case it is an uptrend. Once the long was entered after the swing high was broken, then the 1st S or swing low is the stop.
The reason for that is if the swing high is broken, then it is too improbable that the swing low will be broken.
I want you to see the odds of a good trade in the middle of a trend. Notice I have 4 entry points marked off. The 1st were winners, and the 4th is winning, which is my current live trade on this pair. There is only one trade that went in arrears. Nevertheless if it does, be patient. The support will hold, and eventually the trade will work out to be a winning trade.
Almost everytime, price action will move the length of the previous swing high and low from the swing high. In my current trade, the swing high is 109.36. The swing low is 108.83. That difference is 53. 109.39+.53=109.89. That's the target, or one way of figuring it.
You can have other ways of figuring your target, and they would be based on your personal perceptions of the charts and your methodology. As most followers of the blog are aware, I'm a firm believer in my personal S&R's, so I have a target of my WR2 at 109.83.
That, folks, is the complete meat and potatoes of trading swing highs and lows. There will be more posts concerning this series, but this is one the to eat and digest. Make sure you understand it. It is quite simple, and an excellent way I to get in on a trend without chasing it.
The white horizontal lines are the R's.
The blacks are the S's.
Notice they are all drawn at swing highs and swing lows.
As soon as a swing point is penetrated, that is your entry going in the same direction. In this case it is an uptrend. Once the long was entered after the swing high was broken, then the 1st S or swing low is the stop.
The reason for that is if the swing high is broken, then it is too improbable that the swing low will be broken.
I want you to see the odds of a good trade in the middle of a trend. Notice I have 4 entry points marked off. The 1st were winners, and the 4th is winning, which is my current live trade on this pair. There is only one trade that went in arrears. Nevertheless if it does, be patient. The support will hold, and eventually the trade will work out to be a winning trade.
Almost everytime, price action will move the length of the previous swing high and low from the swing high. In my current trade, the swing high is 109.36. The swing low is 108.83. That difference is 53. 109.39+.53=109.89. That's the target, or one way of figuring it.
You can have other ways of figuring your target, and they would be based on your personal perceptions of the charts and your methodology. As most followers of the blog are aware, I'm a firm believer in my personal S&R's, so I have a target of my WR2 at 109.83.
That, folks, is the complete meat and potatoes of trading swing highs and lows. There will be more posts concerning this series, but this is one the to eat and digest. Make sure you understand it. It is quite simple, and an excellent way I to get in on a trend without chasing it.
A New Development
I have some good news for my favorite standbys, and that is I ma going to b more active here in my blog. I have left Traderji, and will be putting more attention right here at "home".
For all my friends from Traderji, nothing will change. If you have chart, e-mail it to me, and I'll post it here in he blog and address all your questions. Questions, comments, and disagreements are all welcomed either through the C-box, or "Comments" section.
I'm going to start the series I started at Traderji on Price action all over again, so it will be a fresh start. The titles will all be "Price Action" in their sequential order. To find any part of the series, just type in "Price Action in the search box, and the entire series will come up. Once I'm finished, the entire series will be available in PDF format.
For all my friends from Traderji, nothing will change. If you have chart, e-mail it to me, and I'll post it here in he blog and address all your questions. Questions, comments, and disagreements are all welcomed either through the C-box, or "Comments" section.
I'm going to start the series I started at Traderji on Price action all over again, so it will be a fresh start. The titles will all be "Price Action" in their sequential order. To find any part of the series, just type in "Price Action in the search box, and the entire series will come up. Once I'm finished, the entire series will be available in PDF format.
Nifty
I talked a lot about this and the upmove it is in the middle of at TJ, but look for it to hit the MR1 at 5553, and then to challenge the WR3 at 5598. That will be a strong decision point. The
favored scenario is to see that level broken and the advance to circa 5729. Longer term, the market is headed back to the 6000's.
favored scenario is to see that level broken and the advance to circa 5729. Longer term, the market is headed back to the 6000's.
Friday, March 9, 2012
Weekly S&R's--031112
R3 R2 R1 S1 S2 S3
EUR/USD 1.3315 1.3227 1.3173 1.3067 1.3013 1.2925
USD/JPY 84.56 83.60 83.03 81.87 81.30 80.34
GBP/USD 1.5884 1.5784 1.5724 1.5604 1.5544 1.5444
USD/CHF 0.9319 0.9256 0.9219 0.9143 0.9106 0.9043
AUD/USD 1.0805 1.0699 1.0635 1.0507 1.0443 1.0337
USD/CAD 1.0058 0.9988 0.9945 0.9859 0.9816 0.9746
NZD/USD 0.8417 0.8322 0.8264 0.8150 0.8092 0.7997
EUR/GBP 0.8451 0.8414 0.8391 0.8347 0.8324 0.8287
EUR/JPY 111.22 109.83 108.99 107.31 106.47 105.08
GBP/JPY 132.45 130.96 130.07 128.27 127.38 125.89
EUR/USD 1.3315 1.3227 1.3173 1.3067 1.3013 1.2925
USD/JPY 84.56 83.60 83.03 81.87 81.30 80.34
GBP/USD 1.5884 1.5784 1.5724 1.5604 1.5544 1.5444
USD/CHF 0.9319 0.9256 0.9219 0.9143 0.9106 0.9043
AUD/USD 1.0805 1.0699 1.0635 1.0507 1.0443 1.0337
USD/CAD 1.0058 0.9988 0.9945 0.9859 0.9816 0.9746
NZD/USD 0.8417 0.8322 0.8264 0.8150 0.8092 0.7997
EUR/GBP 0.8451 0.8414 0.8391 0.8347 0.8324 0.8287
EUR/JPY 111.22 109.83 108.99 107.31 106.47 105.08
GBP/JPY 132.45 130.96 130.07 128.27 127.38 125.89
Weekly Review--030412
EUR/USD: The current level of the UP TL is 1.3157, which is well above the WS1 at 1.3117. Either the downside is extremely limited this week or the drop is going to accelerate. It is looking like the latter scenario is going to prevail. If that does happen, then 1.2980 has to be treated as the next decision point.
This was a strange and volatile week for this pair. The TL was broken, and then it was a strong move back over it, and then another strong move back under it. After drawing the new one, the pair stopped right at the top. AS it turned out the dip was 1.3095.
USD/JPY: The WS1 at 81.25 should contain, we see this pair rise higher. The MR1 at 82.69 and the WR2 at 82.81 should be an R zone this week. MT, it now appears this pair is head to challenge the weekly kijun at 85.26.
The peak fell short of the MR1 by 6 pips at 82.63.
GBP/USD: The 4-hour TK combo at 1.5898 and the WR1 at 1.5881 is a strong R zone that should contain this week, as we see this pair drop lower to a cluster S area that includes the WS2 at 1.5723 and the MS2 at 1.5724. MT, the 1.5648 swing low is vulnerable. A break of it and this pair could be challenging the 1.5200’s over coming weeks.
The WR1 at 1.5881 was the peak exactly. The pair gave its best shot on the swing low as the dip was 1.5661.
USD/CHF: The sharp rise that ended last week should be favored to continue this week. The MR2-WR2 area of 9246-.9251 looks like solid containment for the week. MT, the bottom of the daily cloud at .9300 has to be absolute containment, or the entire DOWN could be over with.
The peak was .9206.
Note: That is only half the story for this pair. Stay tuned for the Weekly Forecast.
AUD/USD: How many times have I put it in print this pair is headed to challenging the all-time high at 1.1079 and braced to break it? That view has not changed. To start the week, we could see a move to challenge the MS1 at 1.0652, and then we see a sprint towards the WR2 at 1.0841.
This pair shunned the northern lights. The MS1 was not only challenged, but hammered. The dip was 1.0509.
USD/CAD: The MT drop to the bottom of the weekly cloud at .9707 is still on. The drop will continue this week, but there is room for recovery to the cluster R area of .9945--.9954, which includes the WR1 and MR1 respectively. Afterward the drop should resume to the WS2 at .9774, and maybe lower.
This pair peaked at 1.0027, then got scared of the heights and took the express south to the dip at .9871.
NZD/USD: This pair is in for a sharp drop to the top of the daily cloud at .8104. The key point that will signal that is the recent swing low at .8244. Any correction should be contained at the cluster R area of .8340.
Things went as planned as the dip was .8099. There was no correction to speak of as it started the week right where it left off the previous week.
EUR/GBP: When you think of 1.1079, you can only think of the Aussie, as that number has beaten up and seen many times in previous forecasts. The magic number for this pair is .8167. That is the bottom of the monthly cloud, and we are still waiting for it to be hit. The strong impulsive move that ended last week confirmed that and containment is now the WR1 at .8384. There is a strong cluster event for this week waiting at the WS2-MS2 combo at .8238.
This pair is still taking on the appearance it wants to form a base on the daily, as the dip was .8317.
EUR/JPY: There is a strong ichimoku cluster event at 108.01, which is the 4-hour tenken/kijun/top of the cloud. If that does not hold, then 108.48 better or the corrective DOWN is over. OTOH, if the WS1 at 107.18 is broken, then this pair could have 105.92 staked out this week.
It fulfilled the staking out as it dipped to 105.64. The peak was 108.64, but reversed sharply, so there is still no confirmation that the corrective DOWN is over.
GBP/JPY: The UP should continue to the top of the weekly cloud at 131.13. There is plenty of room for the corrective move to the daily tenken at 127.71, and that should be the range for this week.
This pair showed how good the reverse gear works, as it was a sprint to the dip at 126.53, the recovery took the pair back to 129.74.
This was a strange and volatile week for this pair. The TL was broken, and then it was a strong move back over it, and then another strong move back under it. After drawing the new one, the pair stopped right at the top. AS it turned out the dip was 1.3095.
USD/JPY: The WS1 at 81.25 should contain, we see this pair rise higher. The MR1 at 82.69 and the WR2 at 82.81 should be an R zone this week. MT, it now appears this pair is head to challenge the weekly kijun at 85.26.
The peak fell short of the MR1 by 6 pips at 82.63.
GBP/USD: The 4-hour TK combo at 1.5898 and the WR1 at 1.5881 is a strong R zone that should contain this week, as we see this pair drop lower to a cluster S area that includes the WS2 at 1.5723 and the MS2 at 1.5724. MT, the 1.5648 swing low is vulnerable. A break of it and this pair could be challenging the 1.5200’s over coming weeks.
The WR1 at 1.5881 was the peak exactly. The pair gave its best shot on the swing low as the dip was 1.5661.
USD/CHF: The sharp rise that ended last week should be favored to continue this week. The MR2-WR2 area of 9246-.9251 looks like solid containment for the week. MT, the bottom of the daily cloud at .9300 has to be absolute containment, or the entire DOWN could be over with.
The peak was .9206.
Note: That is only half the story for this pair. Stay tuned for the Weekly Forecast.
AUD/USD: How many times have I put it in print this pair is headed to challenging the all-time high at 1.1079 and braced to break it? That view has not changed. To start the week, we could see a move to challenge the MS1 at 1.0652, and then we see a sprint towards the WR2 at 1.0841.
This pair shunned the northern lights. The MS1 was not only challenged, but hammered. The dip was 1.0509.
USD/CAD: The MT drop to the bottom of the weekly cloud at .9707 is still on. The drop will continue this week, but there is room for recovery to the cluster R area of .9945--.9954, which includes the WR1 and MR1 respectively. Afterward the drop should resume to the WS2 at .9774, and maybe lower.
This pair peaked at 1.0027, then got scared of the heights and took the express south to the dip at .9871.
NZD/USD: This pair is in for a sharp drop to the top of the daily cloud at .8104. The key point that will signal that is the recent swing low at .8244. Any correction should be contained at the cluster R area of .8340.
Things went as planned as the dip was .8099. There was no correction to speak of as it started the week right where it left off the previous week.
EUR/GBP: When you think of 1.1079, you can only think of the Aussie, as that number has beaten up and seen many times in previous forecasts. The magic number for this pair is .8167. That is the bottom of the monthly cloud, and we are still waiting for it to be hit. The strong impulsive move that ended last week confirmed that and containment is now the WR1 at .8384. There is a strong cluster event for this week waiting at the WS2-MS2 combo at .8238.
This pair is still taking on the appearance it wants to form a base on the daily, as the dip was .8317.
EUR/JPY: There is a strong ichimoku cluster event at 108.01, which is the 4-hour tenken/kijun/top of the cloud. If that does not hold, then 108.48 better or the corrective DOWN is over. OTOH, if the WS1 at 107.18 is broken, then this pair could have 105.92 staked out this week.
It fulfilled the staking out as it dipped to 105.64. The peak was 108.64, but reversed sharply, so there is still no confirmation that the corrective DOWN is over.
GBP/JPY: The UP should continue to the top of the weekly cloud at 131.13. There is plenty of room for the corrective move to the daily tenken at 127.71, and that should be the range for this week.
This pair showed how good the reverse gear works, as it was a sprint to the dip at 126.53, the recovery took the pair back to 129.74.
Sunday, March 4, 2012
Weekly Forecast--030412
EUR/USD: The current level of the UP TL is 1.3157, which is well above the WS1 at 1.3117. Either the downside is extremely limited this week or the drop is going to accelerate. It is looking like the latter scenario is going to prevail. If that does happen, then 1.2980 has to be treated as the next decision point.
USD/JPY: The WS1 at 81.25 should contain, we see this pair rise higher. The MR1 at 82.69 and the WR2 at 82.81 should be an R zone this week. MT, it now appears this pair is head to challenge the weekly kijun at 85.26.
GBP/USD: The 4-hour TK combo at 1.5898 and the WR1 at 1.5881 is a strong R zone that should contain this week, as we see this pair drop lower to a cluster S area that includes the WS2 at 1.5723 and the MS2 at 1.5724. MT, the 1.5648 swing low is vulnerable. A break of it and this pair could be challenging the 1.5200’s over coming weeks.
USD/CHF: The sharp rise that ended last week should be favored to continue this week. The MR2-WR2 area of 9246-.9251 looks like solid containment for the week. MT, the bottom of the daily cloud at .9300 has to be absolute containment, or the entire DOWN could be over with.
AUD/USD: How many times have I put it in print this pair is headed to challenging the all-time high at 1.1079 and braced to break it? That view has not changed. To start the week, we could see a move to challenge the MS1 at 1.0652, and then we see a sprint towards the WR2 at 1.0841.
USD/CAD: The MT drop to the bottom of the weekly cloud at .9707 is still on. The drop will continue this week, but there is room for recovery to the cluster R area of .9945--.9954, which includes the WR1 and MR1 respectively. Afterward the drop should resume to the WS2 at .9774, and maybe lower.
NZD/USD: This pair is in for a sharp drop to the top of the daily cloud at .8104. The key point that will signal that is the recent swing low at .8244. Any correction should be contained at the cluster R area of .8340.
EUR/GBP: When you think of 1.1079, you can only think of the Aussie, as that number has beaten up and seen many times in previous forecasts. The magic number for this pair is .8167. That is the bottom of the monthly cloud, and we are still waiting for it to be hit. The strong impulsive move that ended last week confirmed that and containment is now the WR1 at .8384. There is a strong cluster event for this week waiting at the WS2-MS2 combo at .8238.
EUR/JPY: There is a strong ichimoku cluster event at 108.01, which is the 4-hour tenken/kijun/top of the cloud. If that does not hold, then 108.48 better or the corrective DOWN is over. OTOH, if the WS1 at 107.18 is broken, then this pair cold have 105.92 staked out this week.
GBP/JPY: The UP should continue to the top of the weekly cloud at 131.13. There is plenty of room for the corrective move to the daily tenken at 127.71, and that should be the range for this week.
USD/JPY: The WS1 at 81.25 should contain, we see this pair rise higher. The MR1 at 82.69 and the WR2 at 82.81 should be an R zone this week. MT, it now appears this pair is head to challenge the weekly kijun at 85.26.
GBP/USD: The 4-hour TK combo at 1.5898 and the WR1 at 1.5881 is a strong R zone that should contain this week, as we see this pair drop lower to a cluster S area that includes the WS2 at 1.5723 and the MS2 at 1.5724. MT, the 1.5648 swing low is vulnerable. A break of it and this pair could be challenging the 1.5200’s over coming weeks.
USD/CHF: The sharp rise that ended last week should be favored to continue this week. The MR2-WR2 area of 9246-.9251 looks like solid containment for the week. MT, the bottom of the daily cloud at .9300 has to be absolute containment, or the entire DOWN could be over with.
AUD/USD: How many times have I put it in print this pair is headed to challenging the all-time high at 1.1079 and braced to break it? That view has not changed. To start the week, we could see a move to challenge the MS1 at 1.0652, and then we see a sprint towards the WR2 at 1.0841.
USD/CAD: The MT drop to the bottom of the weekly cloud at .9707 is still on. The drop will continue this week, but there is room for recovery to the cluster R area of .9945--.9954, which includes the WR1 and MR1 respectively. Afterward the drop should resume to the WS2 at .9774, and maybe lower.
NZD/USD: This pair is in for a sharp drop to the top of the daily cloud at .8104. The key point that will signal that is the recent swing low at .8244. Any correction should be contained at the cluster R area of .8340.
EUR/GBP: When you think of 1.1079, you can only think of the Aussie, as that number has beaten up and seen many times in previous forecasts. The magic number for this pair is .8167. That is the bottom of the monthly cloud, and we are still waiting for it to be hit. The strong impulsive move that ended last week confirmed that and containment is now the WR1 at .8384. There is a strong cluster event for this week waiting at the WS2-MS2 combo at .8238.
EUR/JPY: There is a strong ichimoku cluster event at 108.01, which is the 4-hour tenken/kijun/top of the cloud. If that does not hold, then 108.48 better or the corrective DOWN is over. OTOH, if the WS1 at 107.18 is broken, then this pair cold have 105.92 staked out this week.
GBP/JPY: The UP should continue to the top of the weekly cloud at 131.13. There is plenty of room for the corrective move to the daily tenken at 127.71, and that should be the range for this week.
Saturday, March 3, 2012
Weekly S&R's--030412
R3 R2 R1 S1 S2 S3
EUR/USD 1.3496 1.3361 1.3279 1.3117 1.3035 1.2900
USD/JPY 83.67 82.81 82.29 81.25 80.73 79.87
GBP/USD 1.6020 1.5933 1.5881 1.5775 1.5723 1.5636
USD/CHF 0.9352 0.9253 0.9193 0.9075 0.9015 0.8916
AUD/USD 1.0936 1.0841 1.0785 1.0671 1.0615 1.0520
USD/CAD 1.0096 1.0002 0.9945 0.9831 0.9774 0.9680
NZD/USD 0.8476 0.8392 0.8342 0.8240 0.8190 0.8106
EUR/GBP 0.8514 0.8433 0.8385 0.8287 0.8239 0.8158
EUR/JPY 110.72 109.46 108.71 107.19 106.44 105.18
GBP/JPY 132.95 131.36 130.40 128.50 127.54 125.95
EUR/USD 1.3496 1.3361 1.3279 1.3117 1.3035 1.2900
USD/JPY 83.67 82.81 82.29 81.25 80.73 79.87
GBP/USD 1.6020 1.5933 1.5881 1.5775 1.5723 1.5636
USD/CHF 0.9352 0.9253 0.9193 0.9075 0.9015 0.8916
AUD/USD 1.0936 1.0841 1.0785 1.0671 1.0615 1.0520
USD/CAD 1.0096 1.0002 0.9945 0.9831 0.9774 0.9680
NZD/USD 0.8476 0.8392 0.8342 0.8240 0.8190 0.8106
EUR/GBP 0.8514 0.8433 0.8385 0.8287 0.8239 0.8158
EUR/JPY 110.72 109.46 108.71 107.19 106.44 105.18
GBP/JPY 132.95 131.36 130.40 128.50 127.54 125.95
Friday, March 2, 2012
Weekly Review--022612
EUR/USD: This week’s final hour ended in reverse with the strongest bear candle of the whole week, and 6th strongest overall. That will continue going into next week, and we should see the WS2 at 1.3271 be paid a visit. A bear candle for the week is favorable, but it is only taking a breather in the middle of the UP towards 1.3586.
This pair hit the WS2, and kept going a little to deeper to the dip at 1.3186, just 4 pips north of the MS1.
USD/JPY: Last week, we hit the illusive 81.00 mark. It could be the beginning of the journey towards the monthly kijun at 85.26. The altimeter on the daily says it is time for a retreat, so there is a good possibility that will happen this week. There is plenty of room for a correction back to cluster at 78.87. About all we need to signal that retreat is a move under 80.45. There is a possibility that at the beginning of the week we see the move continue to the WR1 at 81.76.
We did get the but only to the monthly tenken at 80.77, and then we went 10 pips beyond the WR1 to the peak at 81.86.
GBP/USD: The hourly kijun/ WS2 combo at 1.5805 makes for an ideal containment area for this week. This correction should prepare the pair for the next strong move north, as it has its eye on the bottom of the weekly cloud at 1.6021.
We made 6 pips under the WS2 to the dip at 1.5799. What was strange was that the WR1 at 1.5944 was straddled most of the week while hitting the peak at 1.5991.
USD/CHF: This is the pair you now have to be careful on. The DOWN is in full force. The pair is OS enough after the strong move last week that there is plenty of corrective room. We should have a correction to the WR1 at .9025. Things could get consolidative if the WR2 at .9093 is hit. If the WR1 contains, then put the WS2 at .8821, and it could really take off and hit the WS3 at .8708.
I hope you were being careful. The pair took full advantage of the corrective room and hit the peak at .9148, 4 pips beyond the WR1.
AUD/USD: The UP TL currently at 1.0533 contains the MT. This pair is destined to challenge the all-time high at 1.1024. The level to watch for this week is the leveling of the kijun on both the hourly and 4-hour charts at 1.0656. If it is touched, it’s booked its ticket for the WS2 at 1.0573. The TK combo on the hourly at 1.0718 will probably contain the upside this week, which makes the full downside potential the likely scenario. It should be noted that my WS2 is at the bottom of a strong S zone, so price action could come a little short of that.
I was fooled slightly on this one. The 1.0656 level was touched as the dip was 1.0650, and then the pair reversed to 1.0856. It left the higher highs vulnerable as the 1.0656 level was not fully penetrated.
USD/CAD: The move to .9707 has been temporarily derailed. We should keep heading north this week to the daily kijun at 1.0033, and even allowing for a spike to the WR2 at 1.0056. The reaction from that point is going to be important to determine further direction.
The peak at 1.0048 was in between the 2 projections, and then the move south continued deeper to the dip at .9841.
NZD/USD: This pair is looking similar to its distant cousin, the EUR/USD. It’s looks obvious it is headed south to start the week. The big difference here is that the UP is showing signs it could be over. The level to watch for this week is the WS2 at .8263. There is no room for a spike. If we get the smallest spike through it, then we head to the daily kijun at .8211, and a good chance to break through the top of the weekly cloud at .8191.
The pair did not touch the WS2 as the dip was .8285.
EUR/GBP: I’m treating the latest move due north as a volatile mix within the move south. I keep saying it, so I’ll say it again, the bigger picture DOWN is not over until the bottom of the monthly cloud has been hit at .8167. For this week, the MR2 at .8403 should be hit, and it should be treated as a decision point.
Last month’s MR2 was hit, and it made the decision to keep going al the way to the dip at .8312.
EUR/JPY: This pair has huge potential for a strong dip. It is most likely headed for some MT consolidation before a continuation of the UP. The break of the weekly TL at 103.21 needs to be corrected. In order to get there, the UP daily TL needs to be broken currently at 104.45. The first level to look for this week is 108.79. When it is broken, we could be sticking a fork in the UP. This does not mean the longer term UP is over.
The 108.79 level was broken and the dip at 107.08 was hit on Monday, as it went due east the rest of the week.
GBP/JPY: This pair missed the bottom of the weekly cloud at 129.08 by 14 pips last week, so it would be nice to see that part of business be taken care of this week. Other than that it is doubtful we will see the WR1 at 129.96 being hit this week. Any moves south are not as strongly obviated as its cousin, the EUR/JPY, but nevertheless, this week should net a bear candle. Look for the WS1 at 128.00, and then the WS2 at 127.02 to be hit this week.
The WR1 was touched, but barely as the peak was 130.09, but that was after the dip was established at 126.67, and it put a charge into the race to the peak.
This pair hit the WS2, and kept going a little to deeper to the dip at 1.3186, just 4 pips north of the MS1.
USD/JPY: Last week, we hit the illusive 81.00 mark. It could be the beginning of the journey towards the monthly kijun at 85.26. The altimeter on the daily says it is time for a retreat, so there is a good possibility that will happen this week. There is plenty of room for a correction back to cluster at 78.87. About all we need to signal that retreat is a move under 80.45. There is a possibility that at the beginning of the week we see the move continue to the WR1 at 81.76.
We did get the but only to the monthly tenken at 80.77, and then we went 10 pips beyond the WR1 to the peak at 81.86.
GBP/USD: The hourly kijun/ WS2 combo at 1.5805 makes for an ideal containment area for this week. This correction should prepare the pair for the next strong move north, as it has its eye on the bottom of the weekly cloud at 1.6021.
We made 6 pips under the WS2 to the dip at 1.5799. What was strange was that the WR1 at 1.5944 was straddled most of the week while hitting the peak at 1.5991.
USD/CHF: This is the pair you now have to be careful on. The DOWN is in full force. The pair is OS enough after the strong move last week that there is plenty of corrective room. We should have a correction to the WR1 at .9025. Things could get consolidative if the WR2 at .9093 is hit. If the WR1 contains, then put the WS2 at .8821, and it could really take off and hit the WS3 at .8708.
I hope you were being careful. The pair took full advantage of the corrective room and hit the peak at .9148, 4 pips beyond the WR1.
AUD/USD: The UP TL currently at 1.0533 contains the MT. This pair is destined to challenge the all-time high at 1.1024. The level to watch for this week is the leveling of the kijun on both the hourly and 4-hour charts at 1.0656. If it is touched, it’s booked its ticket for the WS2 at 1.0573. The TK combo on the hourly at 1.0718 will probably contain the upside this week, which makes the full downside potential the likely scenario. It should be noted that my WS2 is at the bottom of a strong S zone, so price action could come a little short of that.
I was fooled slightly on this one. The 1.0656 level was touched as the dip was 1.0650, and then the pair reversed to 1.0856. It left the higher highs vulnerable as the 1.0656 level was not fully penetrated.
USD/CAD: The move to .9707 has been temporarily derailed. We should keep heading north this week to the daily kijun at 1.0033, and even allowing for a spike to the WR2 at 1.0056. The reaction from that point is going to be important to determine further direction.
The peak at 1.0048 was in between the 2 projections, and then the move south continued deeper to the dip at .9841.
NZD/USD: This pair is looking similar to its distant cousin, the EUR/USD. It’s looks obvious it is headed south to start the week. The big difference here is that the UP is showing signs it could be over. The level to watch for this week is the WS2 at .8263. There is no room for a spike. If we get the smallest spike through it, then we head to the daily kijun at .8211, and a good chance to break through the top of the weekly cloud at .8191.
The pair did not touch the WS2 as the dip was .8285.
EUR/GBP: I’m treating the latest move due north as a volatile mix within the move south. I keep saying it, so I’ll say it again, the bigger picture DOWN is not over until the bottom of the monthly cloud has been hit at .8167. For this week, the MR2 at .8403 should be hit, and it should be treated as a decision point.
Last month’s MR2 was hit, and it made the decision to keep going al the way to the dip at .8312.
EUR/JPY: This pair has huge potential for a strong dip. It is most likely headed for some MT consolidation before a continuation of the UP. The break of the weekly TL at 103.21 needs to be corrected. In order to get there, the UP daily TL needs to be broken currently at 104.45. The first level to look for this week is 108.79. When it is broken, we could be sticking a fork in the UP. This does not mean the longer term UP is over.
The 108.79 level was broken and the dip at 107.08 was hit on Monday, as it went due east the rest of the week.
GBP/JPY: This pair missed the bottom of the weekly cloud at 129.08 by 14 pips last week, so it would be nice to see that part of business be taken care of this week. Other than that it is doubtful we will see the WR1 at 129.96 being hit this week. Any moves south are not as strongly obviated as its cousin, the EUR/JPY, but nevertheless, this week should net a bear candle. Look for the WS1 at 128.00, and then the WS2 at 127.02 to be hit this week.
The WR1 was touched, but barely as the peak was 130.09, but that was after the dip was established at 126.67, and it put a charge into the race to the peak.
Saturday, February 25, 2012
Weekly Forecast--022612
EUR/USD: This week’s final hour ended in reverse with the strongest bear candle of the whole week, and 6th strongest overall. That will continue going into next week, and we should see the WS2 at 1.3271 be paid a visit. A bear candle for the week is favorable, but it is only taking a breather in the middle of the UP towards 1.3586.
USD/JPY: Last week, we hit the illusive 81.00 mark. It could be the beginning of the journey towards the monthly kijun at 85.26. The altimeter on the daily says it is time for a retreat, so there is a good possibility that will happen this week. There is plenty of room for a correction back to cluster at 78.87. About all we need to signal that retreat is a move under 80.45. There is a possibility that at the beginning of the week we see the move continue to the WR1 at 81.76.
GBP/USD: The hourly kijun/ WS2 combo at 1.5805 makes for an ideal containment area for this week. This correction should prepare the pair for the next strong move north, as it has its eye on the bottom of the weekly cloud at 1.6021.
USD/CHF: This is the pair you now have to be careful on. The DOWN is in full force. The pair is OS enough after the strong move last week that there is plenty of corrective room. We should have a correction to the WS1 at .9025. Things could get consolidative if the WR2 at .9093 is hit. If the WR1 contains, then put the WS2 at .8821, and it could really take off and hit the WS3 at .8708.
AUD/USD: The UP TL currently at 1.0533 contains the MT. This pair is destined to challenge the all-time high at 1.1024. The level to watch for this week is the leveling of the kijun on both the hourly and 4-hour charts at 1.0656. If it is touched, it’s booked its ticket for the WS2 at 1.0573. The TK combo on the hourly at 1.0718 will probably contain the upside this week, which makes the full downside potential the likely scenario. It should be noted that my WS2 is at the bottom of a strong S zone, so price action could come a little short of that.
USD/CAD: The move to .9707 has been temporarily derailed. We should keep heading north this week to the daily kijun at 1.0033, and even allowing for a spike to the WR2 at 1.0056. The reaction from that point is going to be important to determine further direction.
NZD/USD: This pair is looking similar to its distant cousin, the EUR/USD. It’s looks obvious it is headed south to start the week. The big difference here is that the UP is showing signs it could be over. The level to watch for this week is the WS2 at .8263. There is no room for a spike. If we get the smallest spike through it, then we head to the daily kijun at .8211, and a good chance to break through the top of the weekly cloud at .8191.
EUR/GBP: I’m treating the latest move due north as a volatile mix within the move south. I keep saying it, so I’ll say it again, the bigger picture DOWN is not over until the bottom of the monthly cloud has been hit at .8167. For this week, the MR2 at .8403 should be hit, and it should be treated as a decision point.
EUR/JPY: This pair has huge potential for a strong dip. It is most likely headed for some MT consolidation before a continuation of the UP. The break of the weekly TL at 103.21 needs to be corrected. In order to get there, the UP daily TL need to be broken currently at 104.45. The first level to look for this week is 108.79. When it is broken, we could be sticking a fork in the UP. This does not mean the longer term UP is over.
GBP/JPY: This pair missed the bottom of the weekly cloud at 129.08 by 14 pips last week, so it would be nice to see that part of business be taken care of this week. Other than that it is doubtful we will se the WR1 at 129.96 being hit this week. Any moves south are not as strongly obviated as its cousin, the EUR/JPY, but nevertheless, this week should net a bear candle. Look for the WS1 at 128.00, and then the WS2 at 127.02 to be hit this week.
USD/JPY: Last week, we hit the illusive 81.00 mark. It could be the beginning of the journey towards the monthly kijun at 85.26. The altimeter on the daily says it is time for a retreat, so there is a good possibility that will happen this week. There is plenty of room for a correction back to cluster at 78.87. About all we need to signal that retreat is a move under 80.45. There is a possibility that at the beginning of the week we see the move continue to the WR1 at 81.76.
GBP/USD: The hourly kijun/ WS2 combo at 1.5805 makes for an ideal containment area for this week. This correction should prepare the pair for the next strong move north, as it has its eye on the bottom of the weekly cloud at 1.6021.
USD/CHF: This is the pair you now have to be careful on. The DOWN is in full force. The pair is OS enough after the strong move last week that there is plenty of corrective room. We should have a correction to the WS1 at .9025. Things could get consolidative if the WR2 at .9093 is hit. If the WR1 contains, then put the WS2 at .8821, and it could really take off and hit the WS3 at .8708.
AUD/USD: The UP TL currently at 1.0533 contains the MT. This pair is destined to challenge the all-time high at 1.1024. The level to watch for this week is the leveling of the kijun on both the hourly and 4-hour charts at 1.0656. If it is touched, it’s booked its ticket for the WS2 at 1.0573. The TK combo on the hourly at 1.0718 will probably contain the upside this week, which makes the full downside potential the likely scenario. It should be noted that my WS2 is at the bottom of a strong S zone, so price action could come a little short of that.
USD/CAD: The move to .9707 has been temporarily derailed. We should keep heading north this week to the daily kijun at 1.0033, and even allowing for a spike to the WR2 at 1.0056. The reaction from that point is going to be important to determine further direction.
NZD/USD: This pair is looking similar to its distant cousin, the EUR/USD. It’s looks obvious it is headed south to start the week. The big difference here is that the UP is showing signs it could be over. The level to watch for this week is the WS2 at .8263. There is no room for a spike. If we get the smallest spike through it, then we head to the daily kijun at .8211, and a good chance to break through the top of the weekly cloud at .8191.
EUR/GBP: I’m treating the latest move due north as a volatile mix within the move south. I keep saying it, so I’ll say it again, the bigger picture DOWN is not over until the bottom of the monthly cloud has been hit at .8167. For this week, the MR2 at .8403 should be hit, and it should be treated as a decision point.
EUR/JPY: This pair has huge potential for a strong dip. It is most likely headed for some MT consolidation before a continuation of the UP. The break of the weekly TL at 103.21 needs to be corrected. In order to get there, the UP daily TL need to be broken currently at 104.45. The first level to look for this week is 108.79. When it is broken, we could be sticking a fork in the UP. This does not mean the longer term UP is over.
GBP/JPY: This pair missed the bottom of the weekly cloud at 129.08 by 14 pips last week, so it would be nice to see that part of business be taken care of this week. Other than that it is doubtful we will se the WR1 at 129.96 being hit this week. Any moves south are not as strongly obviated as its cousin, the EUR/JPY, but nevertheless, this week should net a bear candle. Look for the WS1 at 128.00, and then the WS2 at 127.02 to be hit this week.
Friday, February 24, 2012
Weekly Review--022612
R3 R2 R1 S1 S2 S3
EUR/USD 1.3767 1.3621 1.3534 1.3358 1.3271 1.3125
USD/JPY 83.09 82.23 81.72 80.68 80.17 79.31
GBP/USD 1.6130 1.6014 1.5945 1.5805 1.5736 1.5620
USD/CHF 0.9206 0.9093 0.9025 0.8889 0.8821 0.8708
EUR/CHF 1.2166 1.2122 1.2095 1.2041 1.2014 1.1970
AUD/USD 1.0913 1.0813 1.0753 1.0633 1.0573 1.0473
USD/CAD 1.0107 1.0056 1.0025 0.9963 0.9932 0.9881
NZD/USD 0.8521 0.8445 0.8400 0.8308 0.8263 0.8187
EUR/GBP 0.8672 0.8581 0.8526 0.8416 0.8361 0.8270
EUR/JPY 113.90 111.73 110.42 107.82 106.51 104.34
GBP/JPY 132.57 130.94 129.96 128.00 127.02 125.39
EUR/USD 1.3767 1.3621 1.3534 1.3358 1.3271 1.3125
USD/JPY 83.09 82.23 81.72 80.68 80.17 79.31
GBP/USD 1.6130 1.6014 1.5945 1.5805 1.5736 1.5620
USD/CHF 0.9206 0.9093 0.9025 0.8889 0.8821 0.8708
EUR/CHF 1.2166 1.2122 1.2095 1.2041 1.2014 1.1970
AUD/USD 1.0913 1.0813 1.0753 1.0633 1.0573 1.0473
USD/CAD 1.0107 1.0056 1.0025 0.9963 0.9932 0.9881
NZD/USD 0.8521 0.8445 0.8400 0.8308 0.8263 0.8187
EUR/GBP 0.8672 0.8581 0.8526 0.8416 0.8361 0.8270
EUR/JPY 113.90 111.73 110.42 107.82 106.51 104.34
GBP/JPY 132.57 130.94 129.96 128.00 127.02 125.39
Weekly Review--021912
EUR/USD: More and more it looks as if we had a premature end to the MT move north and that we headed for an eventual break of the daily cloud and back to challenge the swing low at 1.2623. This week should start off continuing south, as we should see the WS2 at 1.2969 being hit. If this is the case, then we could see the move continue to the WS3 at 1.2827.
Wow! I missed this one. There was only a 6-pip pullback from the open, and it burned rubber all week straight to the peak at 1.3485.
USD/JPY: This pair is 11 pips away from touching the weekly cloud for the first time since June 20, 2010. The rise will continue, as we will see the cloud broken into, and it will move to the top of the cloud at 80.93. There is some consolidation that will take place, first, and beginning this week. This week any move south should be contained at the WS2 at 78.32, as it is a cluster S event. After that, it could be ready for its next MT leg north.
We finally hit the 80.93 level, as the peak was 81.05.
GBP/USD: Things are starting to look very volatile for this pair. Last week ended with a strong break of the DOWN 4-hour TL, which indicates a strong correction is in order and then a strong reversal back to the UP is needed. This should put the WS2 at 1.5699 on the radar. All this adds up to one of 2 extreme movements that are about to unfold. Either the recent peak at 1.5927 holds, and then we have a 1-2-3 formed, which means the trip south shifts in high gear. OTOH, if 1.5927 is broken, then we head to the top of the weekly cloud at 1.6230, and possibly even higher.
Just as planned. The pair hit the WR1 at 1.5878, exactly. There was the strong move south 19 pips past the WS2 as the dip was 1.5647, and then we had the sharp reversal to the peak at 1.5897.
USD/CHF: If the WR1 at .9249 contains, that could be all the indication we need to say that finally this pair is dropping much lower. Last week it challenged the daily kijun and failed. The rise on the cloud is making it much easier for the pair to fall out. Momentum is building south to suggest that will happen. There is no doubt that 2 weeks from now will be make a break, and the favorable scenario is to see the move south with a vengeance. Everything is building up for the move to .8331, which is lower than the original projection. The top of the weekly cloud at .8567 is going to be huge in deciding the MT.
The close of last week at .9184 was the high point of this week, so the WR1 at .9249 did more than contain, and so it was of to the races to the dip at .8930.
AUD/USD: There is no doubt this pair is headed higher, MT. A correction is due this week, and should be contained in the S zone from 1.0621—1.0605, the MP, WS2, respectively. After that move is completed, then the pair moves on to challenge the all-time peak at 1.1079. Stay pinned when we get close, which will still take a few weeks to completely unveil itself. Either 1.1079 contain, and we get a 1-2-3 on the monthly, which means fireworks heading south towards circa .8704. If broken, then we are headed to a multi-month continuation that takes us to 1.1500, and even much higher than that.
The pair actually fell 8 pips below the S zone to 1.0597. The peak was 1.0815, 12 pips on the other side of the WR2.
USD/CAD: This pair ended last week in a strong move south, and is now ready to correct part of it. It will take some volatile action to get back to the WR1 at 1.0002, but it is favorable, and it could pay the WR2 at 1.0033 a visit.
That only tells part of the story. This pair seems to have its tentacles set on a move much lower, MT. The likely stop is now .9707, and it is not far-fetched to believe we will pay the .9400’s a visit.
The peak at 1.0018 was exactly half way between the WR1 and W2.
NZD/USD: This pair has a similar look as its cousin, the AUD/USD. This week will be a corrective pattern that should pay a visit to the WS2 at .8221, and the top of the weekly cloud at .8191 is absolute containment. From there, the MT move I back in full thrust, as it head to .8513. A comfortable break of that level, then it challenges the all-time high at .8842. If not broken, then a 1-2-3 is formed and it heads to .6850. The likely scenario is that over coming months, .8842 is broken, and this pair moves to parity and beyond.
The pair started the week with a strong spike to the peak at .8427, 11 pips on the other side of the WR2. Afterward, it was south to the dip at .8262, which was a spike 8 pips on the other side of the WS1 at .8270.
EUR/GBP: I’m still not satisfied with believing the DOWN is complete until .8167 has been hit, and am still holding to that view, and this could be the week. There is now heavy pressure pushing south on this pair. .8408 is now MT R and should not be broken until at least .8167 is hit. Notice the WS3 is .8176, just 9 pips off. Most of the time, spikes are just that with regards to my S&R’s. It’s favorable to see the Ws1 broken. Even the slightest spike signal the drop is heading much lower.
This pair burned rubber all the way to the peak at .8504. Yes, I missed this one.
EUR/JPY: MT level at 104.48 was hit last week, and so it is time for the UP to take a rest. Like many pairs this week, the corrective mode should prevail. Circa 102.60 is strong cluster containment that will contain in order to stage the next strong move north towards 105.42.
MT, if this pair builds up any sort of comfort at that level, then it heads to the mid-107.00’s.
The 105.42 comfort level was more than met, as the pair sprung off, found Tokyo-like session R in the mid-107.00’s, then still kept motoring to the peak at 109.22. Freight train? To say the least.
GBP/JPY: This pair is about to correct some of the strong move it staged last week. There is still enough room for it to move up to circa 126.15, but don’t count on it. The WS2 at 123.35 is a cluster support and will contain this week.
EUR/JPY was a freight train, but this pair led the way for its cousin. The peak was a whopping 128.94.
Wow! I missed this one. There was only a 6-pip pullback from the open, and it burned rubber all week straight to the peak at 1.3485.
USD/JPY: This pair is 11 pips away from touching the weekly cloud for the first time since June 20, 2010. The rise will continue, as we will see the cloud broken into, and it will move to the top of the cloud at 80.93. There is some consolidation that will take place, first, and beginning this week. This week any move south should be contained at the WS2 at 78.32, as it is a cluster S event. After that, it could be ready for its next MT leg north.
We finally hit the 80.93 level, as the peak was 81.05.
GBP/USD: Things are starting to look very volatile for this pair. Last week ended with a strong break of the DOWN 4-hour TL, which indicates a strong correction is in order and then a strong reversal back to the UP is needed. This should put the WS2 at 1.5699 on the radar. All this adds up to one of 2 extreme movements that are about to unfold. Either the recent peak at 1.5927 holds, and then we have a 1-2-3 formed, which means the trip south shifts in high gear. OTOH, if 1.5927 is broken, then we head to the top of the weekly cloud at 1.6230, and possibly even higher.
Just as planned. The pair hit the WR1 at 1.5878, exactly. There was the strong move south 19 pips past the WS2 as the dip was 1.5647, and then we had the sharp reversal to the peak at 1.5897.
USD/CHF: If the WR1 at .9249 contains, that could be all the indication we need to say that finally this pair is dropping much lower. Last week it challenged the daily kijun and failed. The rise on the cloud is making it much easier for the pair to fall out. Momentum is building south to suggest that will happen. There is no doubt that 2 weeks from now will be make a break, and the favorable scenario is to see the move south with a vengeance. Everything is building up for the move to .8331, which is lower than the original projection. The top of the weekly cloud at .8567 is going to be huge in deciding the MT.
The close of last week at .9184 was the high point of this week, so the WR1 at .9249 did more than contain, and so it was of to the races to the dip at .8930.
AUD/USD: There is no doubt this pair is headed higher, MT. A correction is due this week, and should be contained in the S zone from 1.0621—1.0605, the MP, WS2, respectively. After that move is completed, then the pair moves on to challenge the all-time peak at 1.1079. Stay pinned when we get close, which will still take a few weeks to completely unveil itself. Either 1.1079 contain, and we get a 1-2-3 on the monthly, which means fireworks heading south towards circa .8704. If broken, then we are headed to a multi-month continuation that takes us to 1.1500, and even much higher than that.
The pair actually fell 8 pips below the S zone to 1.0597. The peak was 1.0815, 12 pips on the other side of the WR2.
USD/CAD: This pair ended last week in a strong move south, and is now ready to correct part of it. It will take some volatile action to get back to the WR1 at 1.0002, but it is favorable, and it could pay the WR2 at 1.0033 a visit.
That only tells part of the story. This pair seems to have its tentacles set on a move much lower, MT. The likely stop is now .9707, and it is not far-fetched to believe we will pay the .9400’s a visit.
The peak at 1.0018 was exactly half way between the WR1 and W2.
NZD/USD: This pair has a similar look as its cousin, the AUD/USD. This week will be a corrective pattern that should pay a visit to the WS2 at .8221, and the top of the weekly cloud at .8191 is absolute containment. From there, the MT move I back in full thrust, as it head to .8513. A comfortable break of that level, then it challenges the all-time high at .8842. If not broken, then a 1-2-3 is formed and it heads to .6850. The likely scenario is that over coming months, .8842 is broken, and this pair moves to parity and beyond.
The pair started the week with a strong spike to the peak at .8427, 11 pips on the other side of the WR2. Afterward, it was south to the dip at .8262, which was a spike 8 pips on the other side of the WS1 at .8270.
EUR/GBP: I’m still not satisfied with believing the DOWN is complete until .8167 has been hit, and am still holding to that view, and this could be the week. There is now heavy pressure pushing south on this pair. .8408 is now MT R and should not be broken until at least .8167 is hit. Notice the WS3 is .8176, just 9 pips off. Most of the time, spikes are just that with regards to my S&R’s. It’s favorable to see the Ws1 broken. Even the slightest spike signal the drop is heading much lower.
This pair burned rubber all the way to the peak at .8504. Yes, I missed this one.
EUR/JPY: MT level at 104.48 was hit last week, and so it is time for the UP to take a rest. Like many pairs this week, the corrective mode should prevail. Circa 102.60 is strong cluster containment that will contain in order to stage the next strong move north towards 105.42.
MT, if this pair builds up any sort of comfort at that level, then it heads to the mid-107.00’s.
The 105.42 comfort level was more than met, as the pair sprung off, found Tokyo-like session R in the mid-107.00’s, then still kept motoring to the peak at 109.22. Freight train? To say the least.
GBP/JPY: This pair is about to correct some of the strong move it staged last week. There is still enough room for it to move up to circa 126.15, but don’t count on it. The WS2 at 123.35 is a cluster support and will contain this week.
EUR/JPY was a freight train, but this pair led the way for its cousin. The peak was a whopping 128.94.
Saturday, February 18, 2012
Weekly Forecast--021912
EUR/USD: More and more it looks as if we had a premature end to the MT move north and that we headed for an eventual break of the daily cloud and back to challenge the swing low at 1.2623. This week should start off continuing south, as we should see the WS2 at 1.2969 being hit. From If this is the case, then we could see the move continue to the WS3 at 1.2827.
USD/JPY: This pair is 11 pips away from touching the weekly cloud for the first time since June 20, 2010. The rise will continue, as we will see the cloud broken into, and it will move to the top of the cloud at 80.93. There is some consolidation that will take place, first, and beginning this week. This week any move south should be contained at the WS2 at 78.32, as it is a cluster S event. After that, it could be ready for its next MT leg north.
GBP/USD: Things are starting to look very volatile for this pair. Last week ended with a strong break of the DOWN 4-hour TL, which indicates a strong correction is in order and then a strong reversal back to the UP is needed. This should put the WS2 at 1.5699 on the radar. All this adds up to one of 2 extreme movements that are about to unfold. Either the recent peak at 1.5927 holds, and then we have a 1-2-3 formed, which means the trip south shifts in high gear. OTOH, if 1.5927 is broken, then we head to the top of the weekly cloud at 1.6230, and possibly even higher.
USD/CHF: If the WR1 at .9249 contains, that could be all the indication we need to say that finally this pair is dropping much lower. Last week it challenged the daily kijun and failed. The rise on the cloud is making it much easier for the pair to fall out. Momentum is building south to suggest that will happen. There is no doubt that 2 weeks from now will be make a break, and the favorable scenario is to see the move south with a vengeance. Everything is building up for the move to .8331, which is lower than the original projection. The top of the weekly cloud at .8567 is going to be huge in deciding the MT.
AUD/USD: There is no doubt this pair is headed higher, MT. A correction is due this week, and should be contained in the S zone from 1.0621—1.0605, the MP, WS2, respectively. After that move is completed, then the pair moves on to challenge the all-time peak at 1.1079. Stay pinned when we get close, which will still take a few weeks to completely unveil itself. Either 1.1079 contain, and we get a 1-2-3 on the monthly, which means fireworks heading south towards circa .8704. If broken, then we are headed to a multi-month continuation that takes us to 1.1500, and even much higher than that.
USD/CAD: This pair ended last week in a strong move south, and is now ready to correct part of it. It will take some volatile action to get back to the WR1 at 1.0002, but it is favorable, and it could pay the WR2 at 1.0033 a visit.
That only tells part of the story. This pair seems to have its tentacles set on a move much lower, MT. The likely stop is now .9707, and it is not far-fetched to believe we will pat the .9400’s a visit.
NZD/USD: This pair has a similar look as its cousin, the AUD/USD. This week will be a corrective pattern that should pay a visit to the WS2 at .8221, and the top of th weekly cloud at .8191 is absolute containment. From there, the MT move I back in full thrust, as it head to .8513. A comfortable break of that level, then it challenges the all-time high at .8842. If not broken, then a 1-2-3 is formed and it heads to .6850. The likely scenario is that over coming months, .8842 is broken, and this pair moves to parity and beyond.
EUR/GBP: I’m still not satisfied with believing the DOWN is complete until .8167 has been hit, and am still holding to that view, and this could be the week. There is now heavy pressure pushing south on this pair. .8408 is now MT R and should not be broken until at least .8167 is hit. Notice the WS3 is .8176, just 9 pips off. Most of the time, spikes are just that with regards to my S&R’s. It’s favorable to see the Ws1 broken. Even the slightest spike signal the drop is heading much lower.
EUR/JPY: MT level at 104.48 was hit last week, and so it is time for the UP to take a rest. Like many pairs this week, the corrective mode should prevail. Circa 102.60 is strong cluster containment that will contain in order to stage the next strong move north towards 105.42.
MT, if this pair builds up any sort of comfort at that level, then it heads to the mid-107.00’s.
GBP/JPY: This pair is about to correct some of the strong move it staged last week. The is still enough room for it to move up to circa 126.15, but don’t count on it. The WS2 at 123.35 is a cluster support and will contain this week.
USD/JPY: This pair is 11 pips away from touching the weekly cloud for the first time since June 20, 2010. The rise will continue, as we will see the cloud broken into, and it will move to the top of the cloud at 80.93. There is some consolidation that will take place, first, and beginning this week. This week any move south should be contained at the WS2 at 78.32, as it is a cluster S event. After that, it could be ready for its next MT leg north.
GBP/USD: Things are starting to look very volatile for this pair. Last week ended with a strong break of the DOWN 4-hour TL, which indicates a strong correction is in order and then a strong reversal back to the UP is needed. This should put the WS2 at 1.5699 on the radar. All this adds up to one of 2 extreme movements that are about to unfold. Either the recent peak at 1.5927 holds, and then we have a 1-2-3 formed, which means the trip south shifts in high gear. OTOH, if 1.5927 is broken, then we head to the top of the weekly cloud at 1.6230, and possibly even higher.
USD/CHF: If the WR1 at .9249 contains, that could be all the indication we need to say that finally this pair is dropping much lower. Last week it challenged the daily kijun and failed. The rise on the cloud is making it much easier for the pair to fall out. Momentum is building south to suggest that will happen. There is no doubt that 2 weeks from now will be make a break, and the favorable scenario is to see the move south with a vengeance. Everything is building up for the move to .8331, which is lower than the original projection. The top of the weekly cloud at .8567 is going to be huge in deciding the MT.
AUD/USD: There is no doubt this pair is headed higher, MT. A correction is due this week, and should be contained in the S zone from 1.0621—1.0605, the MP, WS2, respectively. After that move is completed, then the pair moves on to challenge the all-time peak at 1.1079. Stay pinned when we get close, which will still take a few weeks to completely unveil itself. Either 1.1079 contain, and we get a 1-2-3 on the monthly, which means fireworks heading south towards circa .8704. If broken, then we are headed to a multi-month continuation that takes us to 1.1500, and even much higher than that.
USD/CAD: This pair ended last week in a strong move south, and is now ready to correct part of it. It will take some volatile action to get back to the WR1 at 1.0002, but it is favorable, and it could pay the WR2 at 1.0033 a visit.
That only tells part of the story. This pair seems to have its tentacles set on a move much lower, MT. The likely stop is now .9707, and it is not far-fetched to believe we will pat the .9400’s a visit.
NZD/USD: This pair has a similar look as its cousin, the AUD/USD. This week will be a corrective pattern that should pay a visit to the WS2 at .8221, and the top of th weekly cloud at .8191 is absolute containment. From there, the MT move I back in full thrust, as it head to .8513. A comfortable break of that level, then it challenges the all-time high at .8842. If not broken, then a 1-2-3 is formed and it heads to .6850. The likely scenario is that over coming months, .8842 is broken, and this pair moves to parity and beyond.
EUR/GBP: I’m still not satisfied with believing the DOWN is complete until .8167 has been hit, and am still holding to that view, and this could be the week. There is now heavy pressure pushing south on this pair. .8408 is now MT R and should not be broken until at least .8167 is hit. Notice the WS3 is .8176, just 9 pips off. Most of the time, spikes are just that with regards to my S&R’s. It’s favorable to see the Ws1 broken. Even the slightest spike signal the drop is heading much lower.
EUR/JPY: MT level at 104.48 was hit last week, and so it is time for the UP to take a rest. Like many pairs this week, the corrective mode should prevail. Circa 102.60 is strong cluster containment that will contain in order to stage the next strong move north towards 105.42.
MT, if this pair builds up any sort of comfort at that level, then it heads to the mid-107.00’s.
GBP/JPY: This pair is about to correct some of the strong move it staged last week. The is still enough room for it to move up to circa 126.15, but don’t count on it. The WS2 at 123.35 is a cluster support and will contain this week.
Weekly S&R's--021912
R3 r2 r1 s1 s2 s3
eur/usd 1.3455 1.3313 1.3227 1.3055 1.2969 1.2827
usd/jpy 81.89 80.84 80.21 78.95 78.32 77.27
gbp/usd 1.6039 1.5939 1.5879 1.5759 1.5699 1.5599
usd/chf 0.9394 0.9304 0.9249 0.9141 0.9086 0.8996
aud/usd 1.0870 1.0793 1.0746 1.0652 1.0605 1.0528
usd/cad 1.0084 1.0033 1.0002 0.9940 0.9909 0.9858
nzd/usd 0.8498 0.8417 0.8368 0.8270 0.8221 0.8140
eur/gbp 0.8426 0.8370 0.8335 0.8267 0.8232 0.8176
eur/jpy 107.48 106.15 105.36 103.76 102.97 101.64
gbp/jpy 130.36 128.31 127.07 124.59 123.35 121.30
eur/usd 1.3455 1.3313 1.3227 1.3055 1.2969 1.2827
usd/jpy 81.89 80.84 80.21 78.95 78.32 77.27
gbp/usd 1.6039 1.5939 1.5879 1.5759 1.5699 1.5599
usd/chf 0.9394 0.9304 0.9249 0.9141 0.9086 0.8996
aud/usd 1.0870 1.0793 1.0746 1.0652 1.0605 1.0528
usd/cad 1.0084 1.0033 1.0002 0.9940 0.9909 0.9858
nzd/usd 0.8498 0.8417 0.8368 0.8270 0.8221 0.8140
eur/gbp 0.8426 0.8370 0.8335 0.8267 0.8232 0.8176
eur/jpy 107.48 106.15 105.36 103.76 102.97 101.64
gbp/jpy 130.36 128.31 127.07 124.59 123.35 121.30
Weekly Review--021912
EUR/USD: More and more it looks as if we had a premature end to the MT move north and that we headed for an eventual break of the daily cloud and back to challenge the swing low at 1.2623. This week should start off continuing south, as we should see the WS2 at 1.2969 being hit. From If this is the case, then we could see the move continue to the WS3 at 1.2827.
USD/JPY: This pair is 11 pips away from touching the weekly cloud for the first time since June 20, 2010. The rise will continue, as we will see the cloud broken into, and it will move to the top of the cloud at 80.93. There is some consolidation that will take place, first, and beginning this week. This week any move south should be contained at the WS2 at 78.32, as it is a cluster S event. After that, it could be ready for its next MT leg north.
GBP/USD: Things are starting to look very volatile for this pair. Last week ended with a strong break of the DOWN 4-hour TL, which indicates a strong correction is in order and then a strong reversal back to the UP is needed. This should put the WS2 at 1.5699 on the radar. All this adds up to one of 2 extreme movements that are about to unfold. Either the recent peak at 1.5927 holds, and then we have a 1-2-3 formed, which means the trip south shifts in high gear. OTOH, if 1.5927 is broken, then we head to the top of the weekly cloud at 1.6230, and possibly even higher.
USD/CHF: If the WR1 at .9249 contains, that could be all the indication we need to say that finally this pair is dropping much lower. Last week it challenged the daily kijun and failed. The rise on the cloud is making it much easier for the pair to fall out. Momentum is building south to suggest that will happen. There is no doubt that 2 weeks from now will be make a break, and the favorable scenario is to see the move south with a vengeance. Everything is building up for the move to .8331, which is lower than the original projection. The top of the weekly cloud at .8567 is going to be huge in deciding the MT.
AUD/USD: There is no doubt this pair is headed higher, MT. A correction is due this week, and should be contained in the S zone from 1.0621—1.0605, the MP, WS2, respectively. After that move is completed, then the pair moves on to challenge the all-time peak at 1.1079. Stay pinned when we get close, which will still take a few weeks to completely unveil itself. Either 1.1079 contain, and we get a 1-2-3 on the monthly, which means fireworks heading south towards circa .8704. If broken, then we are headed to a multi-month continuation that takes us to 1.1500, and even much higher than that.
USD/CAD: This pair ended last week in a strong move south, and is now ready to correct part of it. It will take some volatile action to get back to the WR1 at 1.0002, but it is favorable, and it could pay the WR2 at 1.0033 a visit.
That only tells part of the story. This pair seems to have its tentacles set on a move much lower, MT. The likely stop is now .9707, and it is not far-fetched to believe we will pat the .9400’s a visit.
NZD/USD: This pair has a similar look as its cousin, the AUD/USD. This week will be a corrective pattern that should pay a visit to the WS2 at .8221, and the top of th weekly cloud at .8191 is absolute containment. From there, the MT move I back in full thrust, as it head to .8513. A comfortable break of that level, then it challenges the all-time high at .8842. If not broken, then a 1-2-3 is formed and it heads to .6850. The likely scenario is that over coming months, .8842 is broken, and this pair moves to parity and beyond.
EUR/GBP: I’m still not satisfied with believing the DOWN is complete until .8167 has been hit, and am still holding to that view, and this could be the week. There is now heavy pressure pushing south on this pair. .8408 is now MT R and should not be broken until at least .8167 is hit. Notice the WS3 is .8176, just 9 pips off. Most of the time, spikes are just that with regards to my S&R’s. It’s favorable to see the Ws1 broken. Even the slightest spike signal the drop is heading much lower.
EUR/JPY: MT level at 104.48 was hit last week, and so it is time for the UP to take a rest. Like many pairs this week, the corrective mode should prevail. Circa 102.60 is strong cluster containment that will contain in order to stage the next strong move north towards 105.42.
MT, if this pair builds up any sort of comfort at that level, then it heads to the mid-107.00’s.
GBP/JPY: This pair is about to correct some of the strong move it staged last week. The is still enough room for it to move up to circa 126.15, but don’t count on it. The WS2 at 123.35 is a cluster support and will contain this week.
USD/JPY: This pair is 11 pips away from touching the weekly cloud for the first time since June 20, 2010. The rise will continue, as we will see the cloud broken into, and it will move to the top of the cloud at 80.93. There is some consolidation that will take place, first, and beginning this week. This week any move south should be contained at the WS2 at 78.32, as it is a cluster S event. After that, it could be ready for its next MT leg north.
GBP/USD: Things are starting to look very volatile for this pair. Last week ended with a strong break of the DOWN 4-hour TL, which indicates a strong correction is in order and then a strong reversal back to the UP is needed. This should put the WS2 at 1.5699 on the radar. All this adds up to one of 2 extreme movements that are about to unfold. Either the recent peak at 1.5927 holds, and then we have a 1-2-3 formed, which means the trip south shifts in high gear. OTOH, if 1.5927 is broken, then we head to the top of the weekly cloud at 1.6230, and possibly even higher.
USD/CHF: If the WR1 at .9249 contains, that could be all the indication we need to say that finally this pair is dropping much lower. Last week it challenged the daily kijun and failed. The rise on the cloud is making it much easier for the pair to fall out. Momentum is building south to suggest that will happen. There is no doubt that 2 weeks from now will be make a break, and the favorable scenario is to see the move south with a vengeance. Everything is building up for the move to .8331, which is lower than the original projection. The top of the weekly cloud at .8567 is going to be huge in deciding the MT.
AUD/USD: There is no doubt this pair is headed higher, MT. A correction is due this week, and should be contained in the S zone from 1.0621—1.0605, the MP, WS2, respectively. After that move is completed, then the pair moves on to challenge the all-time peak at 1.1079. Stay pinned when we get close, which will still take a few weeks to completely unveil itself. Either 1.1079 contain, and we get a 1-2-3 on the monthly, which means fireworks heading south towards circa .8704. If broken, then we are headed to a multi-month continuation that takes us to 1.1500, and even much higher than that.
USD/CAD: This pair ended last week in a strong move south, and is now ready to correct part of it. It will take some volatile action to get back to the WR1 at 1.0002, but it is favorable, and it could pay the WR2 at 1.0033 a visit.
That only tells part of the story. This pair seems to have its tentacles set on a move much lower, MT. The likely stop is now .9707, and it is not far-fetched to believe we will pat the .9400’s a visit.
NZD/USD: This pair has a similar look as its cousin, the AUD/USD. This week will be a corrective pattern that should pay a visit to the WS2 at .8221, and the top of th weekly cloud at .8191 is absolute containment. From there, the MT move I back in full thrust, as it head to .8513. A comfortable break of that level, then it challenges the all-time high at .8842. If not broken, then a 1-2-3 is formed and it heads to .6850. The likely scenario is that over coming months, .8842 is broken, and this pair moves to parity and beyond.
EUR/GBP: I’m still not satisfied with believing the DOWN is complete until .8167 has been hit, and am still holding to that view, and this could be the week. There is now heavy pressure pushing south on this pair. .8408 is now MT R and should not be broken until at least .8167 is hit. Notice the WS3 is .8176, just 9 pips off. Most of the time, spikes are just that with regards to my S&R’s. It’s favorable to see the Ws1 broken. Even the slightest spike signal the drop is heading much lower.
EUR/JPY: MT level at 104.48 was hit last week, and so it is time for the UP to take a rest. Like many pairs this week, the corrective mode should prevail. Circa 102.60 is strong cluster containment that will contain in order to stage the next strong move north towards 105.42.
MT, if this pair builds up any sort of comfort at that level, then it heads to the mid-107.00’s.
GBP/JPY: This pair is about to correct some of the strong move it staged last week. The is still enough room for it to move up to circa 126.15, but don’t count on it. The WS2 at 123.35 is a cluster support and will contain this week.
Friday, February 17, 2012
Weekly S&R's--021912
R3 R2 R1 S1 S2 S3
EUR/USD 1.3455 1.3313 1.3227 1.3055 1.2969 1.2827
USD/JPY 81.89 80.84 80.21 78.95 78.32 77.27
GBP/USD 1.6039 1.5939 1.5879 1.5759 1.5699 1.5599
USD/CHF 0.9394 0.9304 0.9249 0.9141 0.9086 0.8996
EUR/CHF 1.2166 1.2122 1.2095 1.2041 1.2014 1.1970
AUD/USD 1.0870 1.0793 1.0746 1.0652 1.0605 1.0528
USD/CAD 1.0084 1.0033 1.0002 0.9940 0.9909 0.9858
NZD/USD 0.8498 0.8417 0.8368 0.8270 0.8221 0.8140
EUR/GBP 0.8426 0.8370 0.8335 0.8267 0.8232 0.8176
EUR/JPY 107.48 106.15 105.36 103.76 102.97 101.64
GBP/JPY 130.36 128.31 127.07 124.59 123.35 121.30
EUR/USD 1.3455 1.3313 1.3227 1.3055 1.2969 1.2827
USD/JPY 81.89 80.84 80.21 78.95 78.32 77.27
GBP/USD 1.6039 1.5939 1.5879 1.5759 1.5699 1.5599
USD/CHF 0.9394 0.9304 0.9249 0.9141 0.9086 0.8996
EUR/CHF 1.2166 1.2122 1.2095 1.2041 1.2014 1.1970
AUD/USD 1.0870 1.0793 1.0746 1.0652 1.0605 1.0528
USD/CAD 1.0084 1.0033 1.0002 0.9940 0.9909 0.9858
NZD/USD 0.8498 0.8417 0.8368 0.8270 0.8221 0.8140
EUR/GBP 0.8426 0.8370 0.8335 0.8267 0.8232 0.8176
EUR/JPY 107.48 106.15 105.36 103.76 102.97 101.64
GBP/JPY 130.36 128.31 127.07 124.59 123.35 121.30
Weekly Review--021212
EUR/USD: With last week’s strong reversal, it may have signaled the end of the MT correction, which means my MT forecast would be off by close to 200 pips. That is still not confirmed, but what is confirmed is that the DOWN will continue this week. It is doubtful the WR1 at 1.3277 will be hit this week, but the correction will continue north to start the week. To the south, we have the WS2 at 1.3033 to look forward to. Watch for a reaction at that point. If we get too far past it, then we’re going to the low-1.2900’s.
The WR1 did get hit as the peak was 6 pips on the other side at 1.3283. The reversal dropped the pair past the WS2 and to the bottom of the daily cloud / kijun combo at 1.3274.
USD/JPY: This pattern ended last week in a pattern of consolidation after a strong move north. Another leg north should be the order of things to start the week. The level to watch for is the WR2 at 78.35. If it is touched, then this pair could be on its way to the 79.00s. This pair has been in a super funk for 6 months. The only to come out of it is for the move to continue north to around 81.00. If that happens, then we could get the OB condition we need to send this pair scampering for another leg south on the LT radar.
The WR2 was touched, and there was a strong move afterward to the peak at 79.61.
GBP/USD: There is little doubt the correction is over for this pair. It has the WS2 at 1.5644 on the radar this week, and it should go even much lower.
This pair did not go nay lower as the dip was exactly 1.5644.
USD/CHF: The bottom of the hourly cloud is .9117, which ties in perfectly with the WS1, and it should contain this week. Watch out for the WR2 at .9258. Any kind of a strong spike through it, then we are headed back to the top of the cloud / kijun combo at .9354.
We got a slight move on the other side of the cluster S as the dip was .9102. The pair broke the WR2, but got stopped on the way UP at .9299.
AUD/USD: There is an R zone on the 4-hour between 1.0727—1.0744. That should contain any moves to the north. Once back in the DOWN, this pair should hit the MS1 at 1.0641.
The pair broke through the cluster event to 1.0778 at the beginning of the week. Then it headed to the dip at 1.0628, and then with the cluster event dented, the next reversal went higher yet to 1.0798.
USD/CAD: There are quite a few 2’s this week signaling high acceleration if they are so much as touched, and this is another one of those pairs. The WR2 is 1.0076, and if it is touched, then we can put 1.0206 on the radar. The pair reversed its fortunes to end last week, and it should continue south this week. There is a major ST cluster event at .9981. It needs to contain, and most likely will.
The pair did fall short of 1.0076 as the peak was only 1.0050, so the latter was not put on the radar. The cluster event was broken to the south as the dip was .9937.
NZD/USD: This pair put on a show to end last week, and all the indications are there it is now going much lower. The WR1 is .8304, but this pair senses no urgency to correct that far. The WS2 at .8179 is on the radar this week. MT, it has the daily kijun at .8086 in its sights.
I missed this one. The pair started off the week in high gear to the peak at .8421. The reversal on landed at .8244, just 14 pips below the WP.
EUR/GBP: The 4-hour cloud top/ WS1 combo at .8336 should contain the move north that end last week and will probably continue this week. As a matter a fact, a very strong move towards the weekly kijun at .8552 could be expected. This week look for the WR2 at .8454 to be hit, and the pair could continue its march beyond that.
The pair started the week to the peak at .8401, and then reversed to the dip at .8276.
EUR/JPY: The move south that ended last week will go deeper this week. It does not appear it is ready to reverse, but may have entered an extended consolidation phase. Ideal containment is 101.21, but it could go to 100.78. Anything below the latter, and then it gets ugly for future direction.
Even though the dip this week was 101.81, the consolidative move went east after that. After the next attempt to hit the dip bottomed at 101.91, then is was straight north to the peak at 104.66.
GBP/JPY: The daily tenken at 121.37 needs to hold if this pair will continue higher. A move north to start the week towards ichimoku cluster R at 122.59. As long as it holds, then there is no reason to believe that 121.37 will, and so like its cousin, the EUR/JPY some consolidation could be the order of the day.
The initial move north was contained at 122.91, which gave a sign of thing to come. The reversal headed to the dip at 121.66, and then it was high gear to the peak at 126.04.
EUR/AUD: I got this pair back on my watch list. This pair gave the appearance it is back on its MT track going south, but I doubt that will be the case. Containment heading south should be the 4-hour kijun at 1.2275. Afterward the move north should be back on track. Watch for reaction at the WR2 at 1.2442. It will probably contain this week, but if there is a very strong bounce off it, then it could be back to the drawing board for this pair, and that also is doubtful. By next week, this pair should be approaching the weekly tenken at 1.2684.
The pair never came close to the WR2 as the peak was 1.2374. Afterward, the trip south took the pair to the dip at 1.2147.
Thursday, February 16, 2012
Ichimoku PDF
This is the link for the PDF on the series I did on ichimoku. Lots of reading. I think it's 33 pages.
http://www.4shared.com/office/cAulCb...ul__4xpip.html
http://www.4shared.com/office/cAulCb...ul__4xpip.html
Saturday, February 11, 2012
Weekly Forecast--021212
EUR/USD: With last week’s strong reversal, it may have signaled the end of the MT correction, which means my MT forecast would be off by close to 200 pips. That is still not confirmed, but what is confirmed is that the DOWN will continue this week. It is doubtful the WR1 at 1.3277 will be hit this week, but the correction will continue north to start the week. To the south, we have the WS2 at 1.3033 to look forward to. Watch for a reaction at that point. If we get too far past it, then we’re going to the low-1.2900’s.
USD/JPY: This pattern ended last week in a pattern of consolidation after a strong move north. Another leg north should be the order of things to start the week. The level to watch for is the WR2 at 78.35. If it is touched, then this pair could be on its way to the 79.00s. This pair has been in a super funk for 6 months. The only to come out of it is for the move to continue north to around 81.00. If that happens, then we could get the OB condition we need to send this pair scampering for another leg south on the LT radar
GBP/USD: There is little doubt the correction is over for this pair. It has the WS2 at 1.5644 on the radar this week, and it should go even much lower.
USD/CHF: The bottom of the hourly cloud is .9117, which ties in perfectly with the WS1, and it should contain this week. Watch out for the WR2 at .9258. Any kind of a strong spike through it, then we are headed back to the top of the cloud / kijun combo at .9354.
AUD/USD: There is an R zone on the 4-hour between 1.0727—1.0744. That should contain any moves to the north. Once back in the DOWN, this pair should hit the MS1 at 1.0641.
USD/CAD: There are quite a few 2’s this week signaling high acceleration if they are so much as touched, and this is another one of those pairs. The WR2 is 1.0076, and if it is touch, then we can put 1.0206 on the radar. The pair reversed its fortunes to end last week, and it should continue south this week. There is a major ST cluster event at .9981. It needs to contain, and most likely will.
NZD/USD: This pair put on a show to end last week, and all the indications are there it is now going much lower. The WR1 is .8304, but this pair senses no urgency to correct that far. The WS2 at .8179 is on the radar this week. MT, it has the daily kijun at .8086 in its sights.
EUR/GBP: The 4-hour cloud top/ WS1 combo at .8336 should contain the move north that end last week and will probably continue this week. As a matter a fact, a very strong move towards the weekly kijun at .8552 could be expected. This week look for the WR2 at .8454 to be hit, and the pair could continue its march beyond that.
EUR/JPY: The move south that ended last week will go deeper this week. It does not appear it is ready to reverse, but may have entered an extended consolidation phase. Ideal containment is 101.21, but it could go to 100.78. Anything below the latter, and then it gets ugly for future direction.
GBP/JPY: The daily tenken at 121.37 needs to hold if this pair will continue higher. A move north to start the week towards ichimoku cluster R at 122.59. As long as it holds, then there is no reason to believe that 121.37 will, and so like its cousin, the EUR/JPY some consolidation could be the order of the day.
EUR/AUD: I got this pair back on my watch list. This pair gave the appearance it is back on its MT track going south, but I doubt that will be the case. Containment heading south should be the 4-hour kijun at 1.2275. Afterward the move north should be back on track. Watch for reaction at the WR2 at 1.2442. It will probably contain this week, but if there is a very strong bounce off it, then it could be back to the drawing board for this pair, and that also is doubtful. By next week, this pair should be approaching the weekly tenken at 1.2684.
USD/JPY: This pattern ended last week in a pattern of consolidation after a strong move north. Another leg north should be the order of things to start the week. The level to watch for is the WR2 at 78.35. If it is touched, then this pair could be on its way to the 79.00s. This pair has been in a super funk for 6 months. The only to come out of it is for the move to continue north to around 81.00. If that happens, then we could get the OB condition we need to send this pair scampering for another leg south on the LT radar
GBP/USD: There is little doubt the correction is over for this pair. It has the WS2 at 1.5644 on the radar this week, and it should go even much lower.
USD/CHF: The bottom of the hourly cloud is .9117, which ties in perfectly with the WS1, and it should contain this week. Watch out for the WR2 at .9258. Any kind of a strong spike through it, then we are headed back to the top of the cloud / kijun combo at .9354.
AUD/USD: There is an R zone on the 4-hour between 1.0727—1.0744. That should contain any moves to the north. Once back in the DOWN, this pair should hit the MS1 at 1.0641.
USD/CAD: There are quite a few 2’s this week signaling high acceleration if they are so much as touched, and this is another one of those pairs. The WR2 is 1.0076, and if it is touch, then we can put 1.0206 on the radar. The pair reversed its fortunes to end last week, and it should continue south this week. There is a major ST cluster event at .9981. It needs to contain, and most likely will.
NZD/USD: This pair put on a show to end last week, and all the indications are there it is now going much lower. The WR1 is .8304, but this pair senses no urgency to correct that far. The WS2 at .8179 is on the radar this week. MT, it has the daily kijun at .8086 in its sights.
EUR/GBP: The 4-hour cloud top/ WS1 combo at .8336 should contain the move north that end last week and will probably continue this week. As a matter a fact, a very strong move towards the weekly kijun at .8552 could be expected. This week look for the WR2 at .8454 to be hit, and the pair could continue its march beyond that.
EUR/JPY: The move south that ended last week will go deeper this week. It does not appear it is ready to reverse, but may have entered an extended consolidation phase. Ideal containment is 101.21, but it could go to 100.78. Anything below the latter, and then it gets ugly for future direction.
GBP/JPY: The daily tenken at 121.37 needs to hold if this pair will continue higher. A move north to start the week towards ichimoku cluster R at 122.59. As long as it holds, then there is no reason to believe that 121.37 will, and so like its cousin, the EUR/JPY some consolidation could be the order of the day.
EUR/AUD: I got this pair back on my watch list. This pair gave the appearance it is back on its MT track going south, but I doubt that will be the case. Containment heading south should be the 4-hour kijun at 1.2275. Afterward the move north should be back on track. Watch for reaction at the WR2 at 1.2442. It will probably contain this week, but if there is a very strong bounce off it, then it could be back to the drawing board for this pair, and that also is doubtful. By next week, this pair should be approaching the weekly tenken at 1.2684.
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